EPAC: BEATRIZ - Remnants

[Extratropical94]

Observation 33, flying to the south now.

000
URPN15 KNHC 201851
AF302 0102E BEATRIZ HDOB 33 20110620
184100 1753N 10413W 8428 01536 0062 +165 +116 059009 010 031 000 00
184130 1754N 10415W 8430 01534 0060 +165 +115 053008 008 030 001 00
184200 1755N 10416W 8428 01536 0060 +166 +115 037007 007 028 002 03
184230 1756N 10417W 8428 01535 0060 +165 +115 014006 006 /// /// 03
184300 1754N 10418W 8436 01527 0062 +165 +117 359006 006 027 001 03
184330 1752N 10418W 8428 01537 0064 +165 +118 002006 007 027 000 00
184400 1750N 10418W 8432 01532 0063 +164 +118 010007 007 027 000 00
184430 1749N 10418W 8428 01537 0063 +162 +117 013007 007 028 001 00
184500 1747N 10418W 8430 01536 0066 +160 +117 030008 008 028 000 00
184530 1745N 10418W 8429 01538 0070 +158 +116 049012 013 029 000 00
184600 1744N 10418W 8433 01536 0072 +159 +114 050013 013 028 001 00
184630 1742N 10418W 8427 01545 0072 +160 +113 046013 014 029 000 00
184700 1740N 10418W 8430 01540 0072 +160 +113 045014 015 029 000 00
184730 1738N 10418W 8430 01541 0072 +165 +112 041014 015 028 001 00
184800 1737N 10418W 8428 01542 0070 +165 +113 038015 015 028 001 00
184830 1735N 10419W 8431 01541 0069 +165 +113 034015 015 028 000 03
184900 1733N 10419W 8430 01542 0070 +165 +114 028015 015 029 000 00
184930 1731N 10419W 8431 01542 0070 +165 +114 023015 015 029 001 00
185000 1730N 10419W 8429 01544 0069 +165 +115 022015 015 028 000 00
185030 1728N 10419W 8431 01538 0067 +165 +115 018015 015 028 000 00
$$
;

[senorpepr]

You can also receive recon updates via Twitter at @storm2k_recon
http://twitter.com/storm2k_recon

It doesn't look like the data provider is working with VDMs or Drops for the EPAC storms, but the full suite is available for Atlantic systems.

In addition to the data notices on Twitter, I also add some commentary when possible.

[supercane]

[Extratropical94]

Observation 34, hoping that the plane will enter from the SW this time.
I want some readings from the NE sector, which is gonna be the one having the biggest impact on Mexico.

000
URPN15 KNHC 201901
AF302 0102E BEATRIZ HDOB 34 20110620
185100 1726N 10419W 8429 01540 0066 +165 +116 018015 016 029 001 00
185130 1724N 10419W 8429 01541 0066 +165 +116 020015 016 029 000 00
185200 1722N 10419W 8430 01543 0069 +165 +117 020015 016 028 000 00
185230 1721N 10419W 8430 01543 0070 +165 +117 017015 015 028 001 00
185300 1719N 10419W 8430 01542 0070 +165 +117 014015 016 029 001 00
185330 1717N 10419W 8430 01542 0073 +165 +117 014016 016 030 003 00
185400 1715N 10420W 8430 01542 0073 +160 +117 015016 016 031 005 00
185430 1713N 10420W 8430 01542 0075 +156 +116 010014 015 032 005 00
185500 1712N 10420W 8430 01541 0079 +151 +114 003014 015 032 006 00
185530 1710N 10420W 8429 01542 0079 +152 +110 357013 014 034 007 00
185600 1708N 10420W 8430 01542 0078 +155 +106 344012 013 035 007 00
185630 1706N 10420W 8430 01541 0078 +152 +103 329014 015 035 007 00
185700 1705N 10420W 8429 01542 0078 +154 +101 332014 015 035 007 00
185730 1703N 10420W 8433 01537 0076 +154 +098 327015 015 036 007 00
185800 1701N 10420W 8429 01542 0076 +155 +097 321016 017 036 005 00
185830 1659N 10420W 8429 01544 0079 +155 +095 314019 020 034 006 00
185900 1658N 10420W 8430 01544 0080 +155 +095 312021 021 034 006 00
185930 1656N 10421W 8429 01546 0080 +156 +094 314021 022 034 007 00
190000 1654N 10421W 8431 01543 0081 +155 +094 315022 023 036 007 00
190030 1652N 10421W 8429 01546 0081 +156 +095 316020 020 038 010 00
$$
;

[Extratropical94]

Observation 35, flying south.

000
URPN15 KNHC 201911
AF302 0102E BEATRIZ HDOB 35 20110620
190100 1651N 10421W 8431 01543 0083 +151 +096 317020 020 038 010 00
190130 1649N 10421W 8429 01546 0084 +151 +096 318020 020 038 010 00
190200 1647N 10421W 8429 01546 0083 +155 +096 319019 020 038 010 00
190230 1645N 10421W 8430 01546 0085 +151 +096 317022 023 039 010 00
190300 1643N 10421W 8429 01546 0086 +147 +096 316023 024 039 011 00
190330 1642N 10421W 8429 01546 0085 +150 +095 318021 022 039 011 00
190400 1640N 10421W 8430 01544 0086 +150 +095 312022 022 039 011 00
190430 1638N 10421W 8430 01546 0086 +150 +094 313022 022 040 012 00
190500 1636N 10421W 8428 01548 0084 +151 +094 317022 023 038 012 00
190530 1635N 10422W 8432 01544 0085 +152 +093 311021 022 038 012 00
190600 1633N 10422W 8430 01546 0081 +159 +093 304021 022 039 011 00
190630 1631N 10422W 8431 01546 0084 +154 +094 304022 022 037 013 00
190700 1629N 10422W 8429 01548 0086 +154 +094 305022 024 037 012 00
190730 1628N 10422W 8427 01553 0084 +161 +094 306021 022 037 009 00
190800 1626N 10422W 8432 01547 0086 +156 +094 310021 023 037 008 00
190830 1624N 10422W 8429 01549 0084 +159 +094 307023 023 037 008 00
190900 1622N 10422W 8430 01550 0085 +160 +094 301027 029 037 007 00
190930 1621N 10422W 8429 01552 0089 +152 +094 300029 029 038 010 00
191000 1619N 10422W 8436 01544 0087 +158 +093 300029 030 036 007 00
191030 1617N 10422W 8426 01557 0088 +159 +093 299030 030 035 007 00
$$
;

[Extratropical94]

Observation 36

000
URPN15 KNHC 201921
AF302 0102E BEATRIZ HDOB 36 20110620
191100 1615N 10423W 8429 01553 0089 +156 +092 296029 029 035 006 00
191130 1614N 10423W 8429 01552 0089 +155 +093 294028 028 035 005 00
191200 1612N 10423W 8429 01552 0087 +156 +093 290028 028 034 007 00
191230 1610N 10423W 8429 01553 0090 +155 +094 286027 028 034 006 00
191300 1608N 10423W 8429 01554 0091 +155 +095 285027 027 033 005 00
191330 1607N 10423W 8430 01550 0090 +155 +095 285026 027 034 005 00
191400 1605N 10423W 8430 01550 0090 +151 +096 285026 026 035 006 00
191430 1603N 10423W 8429 01552 0092 +149 +096 288026 026 036 007 00
191500 1602N 10423W 8430 01550 0091 +150 +096 289025 025 035 008 00
191530 1600N 10423W 8432 01549 0092 +151 +095 289025 025 035 008 00
191600 1558N 10423W 8429 01552 0088 +155 +095 289024 024 034 006 00
191630 1557N 10423W 8429 01553 0089 +158 +095 288024 024 034 002 00
191700 1555N 10424W 8429 01555 0087 +160 +096 288024 024 031 003 00
191730 1553N 10424W 8432 01553 0088 +165 +097 290024 024 030 003 00
191800 1551N 10424W 8429 01557 0086 +165 +099 293023 024 030 001 00
191830 1550N 10424W 8429 01557 0088 +165 +102 295023 023 029 000 00
191900 1548N 10424W 8429 01557 0086 +167 +105 297022 023 029 000 00
191930 1546N 10424W 8428 01557 0087 +164 +107 297021 021 029 001 00
192000 1545N 10424W 8430 01554 0085 +168 +109 298021 021 027 001 00
192030 1543N 10424W 8430 01555 0083 +170 +109 298021 022 027 000 00
$$
;

[senorpepr]

You can also receive recon updates via Twitter at @storm2k_recon
http://twitter.com/storm2k_recon

It doesn't look like the data provider is working with VDMs or Drops for the EPAC storms, but the full suite is available for Atlantic systems.

In addition to the data notices on Twitter, I also add some commentary when possible.

[Extratropical94]

Observation 37, going NE now

000
URPN15 KNHC 201931
AF302 0102E BEATRIZ HDOB 37 20110620
192100 1541N 10424W 8430 01557 0083 +173 +111 296021 021 027 000 00
192130 1539N 10424W 8429 01554 0081 +172 +114 291021 021 027 000 00
192200 1538N 10424W 8430 01555 0081 +173 +117 290021 021 027 000 00
192230 1536N 10424W 8430 01554 0081 +172 +120 289020 021 027 000 00
192300 1534N 10425W 8429 01555 0081 +170 +122 290019 020 028 000 00
192330 1533N 10425W 8432 01554 0084 +169 +124 285021 021 027 000 03
192400 1531N 10424W 8422 01563 0083 +169 +125 279021 021 /// /// 03
192430 1532N 10422W 8429 01557 0084 +170 +127 278018 020 027 000 03
192500 1533N 10421W 8429 01557 0084 +170 +129 283017 018 027 000 00
192530 1534N 10420W 8429 01555 0083 +170 +130 283018 018 028 000 00
192600 1535N 10419W 8429 01557 0083 +170 +130 281018 019 027 000 00
192630 1537N 10418W 8430 01555 0084 +170 +130 284019 019 027 000 00
192700 1538N 10416W 8429 01557 0084 +169 +130 286019 019 027 000 00
192730 1539N 10415W 8430 01557 0086 +170 +130 289018 019 028 000 00
192800 1540N 10414W 8430 01557 0085 +167 +129 288020 020 027 000 00
192830 1542N 10413W 8430 01555 0083 +165 +129 289021 021 028 000 00
192900 1543N 10411W 8429 01554 0083 +165 +129 286022 022 028 000 00
192930 1544N 10410W 8430 01553 0083 +164 +128 284020 021 028 000 03
193000 1545N 10409W 8430 01553 0084 +163 +128 285021 022 030 001 00
193030 1547N 10408W 8429 01552 0082 +164 +127 289023 024 031 002 00
$$

[Extratropical94]

Observation 38

000
URPN15 KNHC 201941
AF302 0102E BEATRIZ HDOB 38 20110620
193100 1548N 10406W 8430 01550 0082 +162 +125 294020 021 033 001 00
193130 1549N 10405W 8430 01552 0082 +162 +123 293018 019 034 002 00
193200 1550N 10404W 8429 01552 0082 +163 +121 294018 019 036 005 00
193230 1551N 10403W 8429 01552 0082 +161 +119 290020 021 036 007 00
193300 1553N 10401W 8430 01550 0081 +165 +116 290021 022 036 005 00
193330 1554N 10400W 8427 01553 0080 +165 +113 294024 025 037 005 00
193400 1555N 10359W 8432 01548 0079 +165 +111 293027 028 036 005 00
193430 1556N 10358W 8427 01550 0079 +165 +110 292029 029 037 004 00
193500 1558N 10356W 8432 01544 0080 +160 +108 292030 030 037 006 00
193530 1559N 10355W 8430 01546 0078 +160 +107 295030 031 037 006 00
193600 1600N 10354W 8428 01546 0078 +160 +106 295030 030 037 006 00
193630 1601N 10352W 8429 01546 0079 +157 +105 298029 031 038 005 00
193700 1602N 10351W 8429 01543 0075 +160 +105 294026 028 038 005 00
193730 1604N 10350W 8430 01542 0070 +167 +104 296024 025 039 004 00
193800 1605N 10349W 8429 01541 0069 +167 +104 290024 025 038 007 00
193830 1606N 10347W 8430 01538 0071 +161 +106 287024 024 039 008 00
193900 1607N 10346W 8429 01540 0073 +154 +106 287025 025 040 008 00
193930 1609N 10345W 8431 01536 0073 +152 +105 289025 026 041 008 00
194000 1610N 10344W 8429 01536 0071 +156 +104 292025 026 040 008 00
194030 1611N 10342W 8433 01532 0067 +158 +103 293025 026 040 006 00
$$
;

[Extratropical94]

Observation 39

000
URPN15 KNHC 201951
AF302 0102E BEATRIZ HDOB 39 20110620
194100 1612N 10341W 8429 01536 0064 +163 +103 291027 027 042 005 00
194130 1614N 10340W 8430 01532 0068 +155 +103 293027 028 041 005 00
194200 1615N 10339W 8430 01531 0065 +156 +102 290028 029 042 007 00
194230 1616N 10337W 8429 01531 0061 +163 +102 290031 032 042 008 00
194300 1617N 10336W 8429 01531 0068 +149 +102 288033 034 043 008 00
194330 1619N 10335W 8429 01531 0066 +151 +102 294034 035 043 009 03
194400 1620N 10334W 8432 01526 0067 +146 +101 293036 036 044 012 00
194430 1622N 10333W 8428 01530 0072 +139 +100 286035 036 046 012 00
194500 1623N 10333W 8434 01523 0076 +130 +099 285037 039 047 015 00
194530 1625N 10332W 8429 01526 0072 +133 +097 287040 040 048 014 00
194600 1626N 10331W 8434 01520 0070 +135 +096 293038 040 048 013 00
194630 1628N 10331W 8425 01526 0063 +138 +096 301034 035 048 011 03
194700 1629N 10331W 8432 01516 0063 +136 +096 303034 035 049 010 03
194730 1631N 10331W 8429 01516 0060 +135 +096 300035 036 049 011 03
194800 1632N 10331W 8433 01507 0054 +135 +097 304037 039 050 012 03
194830 1633N 10331W 8427 01512 0049 +133 +097 302041 043 051 015 00
194900 1635N 10331W 8425 01514 0046 +133 +098 297038 042 054 016 03
194930 1636N 10331W 8433 01508 0053 +131 +099 310034 039 053 015 00
195000 1638N 10331W 8432 01502 0046 +134 +100 329040 041 051 016 00
195030 1639N 10330W 8429 01498 0042 +135 +100 329038 040 059 021 03
$$
;

[KWT]

Recon does suggest this system maybe a hurricane right now, so will be interesting to see what the NHC decides to do.

[Extratropical94]

Observation 40, entering SW eyewall

000
URPN15 KNHC 202001
AF302 0102E BEATRIZ HDOB 40 20110620
195100 1640N 10329W 8431 01501 0042 +140 +101 342044 046 058 018 00
195130 1642N 10329W 8427 01502 0039 +139 +102 345036 038 055 018 03
195200 1643N 10327W 8428 01506 0043 +136 +103 339037 039 054 019 00
195230 1643N 10326W 8424 01503 0038 +140 +104 346039 041 054 020 03
195300 1644N 10324W 8424 01506 0034 +140 +105 335044 051 058 029 00
195330 1644N 10323W 8424 01499 0032 +137 +106 340047 049 062 025 00
195400 1645N 10321W 8438 01487 0033 +138 +107 338047 049 057 016 00
195430 1645N 10319W 8424 01491 0023 +140 +107 340049 051 054 009 00
195500 1645N 10318W 8434 01480 0018 +142 +107 344047 048 055 014 03
195530 1646N 10316W 8420 01486 0010 +144 +108 341050 051 055 016 00
195600 1646N 10314W 8442 01460 0006 +143 +109 344051 054 056 012 00
195630 1647N 10313W 8428 01469 9995 +146 +110 346050 051 055 012 00
195700 1647N 10311W 8424 01468 9981 +162 +111 346054 055 054 010 00
195730 1648N 10310W 8429 01453 9966 +170 +113 349053 053 058 005 00
195800 1648N 10308W 8426 01445 9954 +171 +116 357057 062 059 004 00
195830 1649N 10307W 8433 01431 9949 +164 +121 002059 061 061 005 00
195900 1649N 10306W 8431 01429 9934 +175 +124 008051 053 057 005 00
195930 1650N 10304W 8427 01420 9921 +179 +127 360032 038 055 002 03
200000 1650N 10302W 8430 01412 9907 +192 +130 341017 022 051 003 00
200030 1650N 10301W 8431 01411 9906 +193 +135 339008 011 042 001 00
$$

62 kt flight level winds, about the same as in the NW sector

[supercane]

[Extratropical94]

Observation 41, they are now flying eastnortheastward, but north of the previously estimated center.
Seems to me as if they calculated the cyclone's movement.

000
URPN15 KNHC 202011
AF302 0102E BEATRIZ HDOB 41 20110620
200100 1651N 10259W 8427 01412 9897 +204 +139 279005 006 032 001 00
200130 1651N 10257W 8433 01406 9892 +212 +143 230007 009 029 001 00
200200 1651N 10256W 8426 01411 9888 +215 +148 212009 010 026 000 00
200230 1652N 10254W 8431 01407 9888 +219 +153 205011 012 024 000 03
200300 1653N 10252W 8430 01409 9888 +220 +159 187011 012 024 000 00
200330 1654N 10251W 8428 01411 9886 +222 +164 185013 014 025 000 00
200400 1656N 10250W 8430 01408 9887 +217 +169 172022 025 027 000 00
200430 1657N 10249W 8438 01405 9889 +222 +173 162031 034 030 000 00
200500 1658N 10247W 8432 01414 9890 +226 +177 164039 040 035 000 03
200530 1700N 10246W 8421 01435 9894 +234 +180 143058 066 044 001 00
200600 1701N 10245W 8429 01430 9897 +241 +184 139069 071 052 000 00
200630 1702N 10244W 8426 01443 9908 +240 +187 141063 064 054 002 03
200700 1703N 10243W 8436 01443 9927 +225 +191 138060 061 054 002 00
200730 1704N 10241W 8428 01463 9941 +216 +192 137056 059 052 001 03
200800 1706N 10240W 8441 01454 9957 +204 +193 135054 055 057 001 03
200830 1707N 10239W 8436 01470 9969 +201 +192 134053 054 051 001 00
200900 1708N 10238W 8425 01485 9978 +192 +190 137050 052 046 000 03
200930 1709N 10237W 8429 01484 9988 +183 //// 138047 047 046 000 05
201000 1710N 10236W 8430 01484 9996 +177 //// 138045 046 044 000 01
201030 1712N 10234W 8429 01490 9999 +181 +180 136044 046 044 001 00
$$
;

71 kt flight level winds in the northeastern section

[Extratropical94]

Observation 42, exiting to the north east

000
URPN15 KNHC 202021
AF302 0102E BEATRIZ HDOB 42 20110620
201100 1713N 10233W 8432 01490 9998 +190 +177 137045 046 040 000 00
201130 1714N 10232W 8432 01497 0005 +186 +174 138044 045 039 002 00
201200 1715N 10231W 8428 01506 0011 +180 +172 142043 043 038 000 03
201230 1717N 10230W 8428 01508 0018 +177 +171 146043 044 037 000 00
201300 1718N 10229W 8428 01507 0024 +171 +169 150040 041 037 001 00
201330 1719N 10227W 8432 01509 0030 +170 +166 155038 040 035 001 00
201400 1720N 10226W 8432 01512 0033 +167 +164 156036 037 036 000 00
201430 1722N 10225W 8426 01520 0049 +148 //// 155036 038 038 006 01
201500 1723N 10224W 8429 01519 0042 +163 +153 155035 036 038 002 00
201530 1724N 10222W 8430 01520 0040 +170 +146 154036 037 035 002 00
201600 1725N 10221W 8430 01521 0040 +171 +143 152035 035 032 001 00
201630 1727N 10220W 8429 01524 0041 +175 +143 152035 036 034 001 00
201700 1728N 10219W 8429 01524 0045 +170 +144 152036 036 033 000 00
201730 1729N 10217W 8428 01526 0047 +169 +144 153035 036 032 000 00
201800 1731N 10216W 8429 01527 0049 +167 +145 154035 036 033 000 00
201830 1732N 10215W 8429 01529 0053 +162 +145 154035 036 034 001 00
201900 1733N 10214W 8440 01519 0064 +146 +143 146032 034 035 006 03
201930 1733N 10212W 8429 01534 0064 +150 +139 154032 033 035 001 03
202000 1732N 10212W 8429 01532 0057 +165 +134 152030 031 035 001 03
202030 1732N 10212W 8429 01532 0050 +154 +131 150027 028 037 001 03
$$
;

[supercane]

[supercane]

000
URPN12 KNHC 202029
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP022011
A. 20/20:01:10Z
B. 16 deg 51 min N
102 deg 59 min W
C. 850 mb 1337 m
D. 62 kt
E. 255 deg 24 nm
F. 359 deg 63 kt
G. 257 deg 8 nm
H. 989 mb
I. 17 C / 1527 m
J. 22 C / 1522 m
K. 14 C / NA
L. OPEN N
M. C16
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF302 0102E BEATRIZ OB 16
MAX FL WIND 74 KT SE QUAD 18:03:20Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 71 KT NE QUAD 20:06:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 24 C 053 / 19 NM FROM FL CNTR
FIXED ALONG SW EDGE OF THIN INNER EYE ON RADAR
SECONDARY BROKEN BAND CIRCULAR 28 NM OPEN NE
;

[Extratropical94]

btw, forgot to mention it, but the minimum pressure was 988.6 mbars
200330 1654N 10251W 8428 01411 9886 +222 +164 185013 014 025 000 00

Observation 43, plane ascending, mission over

000
URPN15 KNHC 202031
AF302 0102E BEATRIZ HDOB 43 20110620
202100 1732N 10212W 8429 01532 0051 +131 +128 151029 031 /// /// 03
202130 1728N 10210W 7679 02319 0034 +129 +123 144030 031 /// /// 03
202200 1726N 10210W 7361 02677 0027 +115 //// 150032 033 /// /// 05
202230 1725N 10209W 7078 03004 0033 +093 //// 149030 031 /// /// 05
202300 1724N 10208W 6941 03178 //// +085 //// 143030 031 034 001 01
202330 1722N 10207W 6930 03194 0054 +085 //// 143031 031 036 000 01
202400 1721N 10206W 6935 03188 0053 +085 //// 143030 031 035 001 01
202430 1720N 10205W 6933 03190 0053 +085 //// 147030 031 035 002 01
202500 1719N 10204W 6936 03188 0052 +085 //// 147031 032 034 002 01
202530 1717N 10203W 6937 03188 0051 +085 +082 149030 030 033 001 00
202600 1716N 10202W 6933 03194 0053 +085 +079 149033 033 034 000 00
202630 1715N 10201W 6934 03191 0049 +090 +077 149033 033 037 001 00
202700 1715N 10201W 6934 03191 0053 +089 +077 153032 033 036 000 00
202730 1713N 10159W 6916 03215 0052 +087 +077 157033 033 034 001 00
202800 1711N 10158W 6919 03208 0048 +085 +077 157031 032 037 000 03
202830 1710N 10157W 6683 03492 0039 +074 //// 160033 034 /// /// 05
202900 1709N 10156W 6438 03798 0037 +053 //// 162031 032 /// /// 05
202930 1708N 10155W 6149 04174 //// +037 //// 168032 034 /// /// 05
203000 1708N 10153W 5919 04485 //// +022 //// 169034 036 /// /// 05
203030 1708N 10152W 5731 04744 //// +013 //// 170036 038 /// /// 05
$$
;

[Extratropical94]

70 mph = Not yet a hurricane

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 202039
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
2100 UTC MON JUN 20 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING
NORTHWESTWARD FROM LA FORTUNA TO CABO CORRIENTES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO EAST OF
ZIHUATANEJO

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 103.1W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 420SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 103.1W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 102.9W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 17.6N 103.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.6N 104.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.4N 105.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 55SE 50SW 55NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 20.0N 107.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 55NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.5N 110.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 20.5N 114.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 20.5N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 103.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 202040
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
200 PM PDT MON JUN 20 2011

...BEATRIZ NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED
NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 103.1W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING
NORTHWESTWARD FROM LA FORTUNA TO CABO CORRIENTES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO EAST OF
ZIHUATANEJO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.1 WEST. BEATRIZ IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF BEATRIZ WILL APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER
ONSHORE IN THE WARNING AREA.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND BEATRIZ IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

RAINFALL...BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ALONG THE COASTS OF THE STATES OF GUERRERO...
JALISCO...COLIMA...AND MICHOACAN IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$

FORECASTER BRENNAN

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 202040
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
200 PM PDT MON JUN 20 2011

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND THAT BEATRIZ
IS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. A BLEND OF THE 850-MB FLIGHT
LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM OF 74 KT AND DROPSONDE DATA WERE USED TO SET THE
INITIAL INTENSITY AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH WELL-
ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
BEATRIZ SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A BROAD PEAK OF 80 KT FROM 24 TO 36
HOURS...A LITTLE ABOVE BOTH THE SHIPS AND LGEM. AFTER 48 HOURS...
THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN QUICKLY AS BEATRIZ MOVES OVER
MUCH COOLER WATERS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...IF NOT SOONER. IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS
AND LGEM.

THE AIRCRAFT FIXED THE CENTER A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS
ESTIMATES...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW TOWARD 330/7. THE
OVERALL TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. BEATRIZ IS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH
SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME THE
RE-STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL TURN BEATRIZ BACK TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST BY 48 HOURS...AND AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS IT SHOULD TURN
WESTWARD IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BY DAY 3. THIS WESTWARD MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DESPITE
THE FACT THAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER OFFSHORE...IT
IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS EXTEND OVER A
LARGE AREA AND ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK
COULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE IN THE WARNING AREA.

THE 34-KT AND 50-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED OUTWARD BASED ON DATA
FROM THE AIRCRAFT. THE RADIUS OF 12-FOOT SEAS WERE ALSO EXPANDED
SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT BASED ON DATA FROM THE
JASON ALTIMETER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 17.0N 103.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 17.6N 103.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 18.6N 104.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 19.4N 105.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 20.0N 107.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 20.5N 110.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 20.5N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 25/1800Z 20.5N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[supercane]

Thanks for your work, Extratropical94.