80kt...
WTPZ42 KNHC 210838
TCDEP2
HURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
200 AM PDT TUE JUN 21 2011
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT BEATRIZ HAS DEVELOPED A
WELL-DEFINED 20-25 N MI WIDE EYE...A FEATURE THAT ALSO MADE A
SHORT-LIVED APPEARANCE IN INFRARED IMAGERY. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 90 KT FROM SAB AND 77 KT FROM
TAFB...WITH AUTOMATED ESTIMATES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN OF
90 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 80 KT...
AND THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. CLOUD TOPS IN THE EYEWALL ARE
COLDER THAN -80C...AND THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL
DIRECTIONS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 330/10. BEATRIZ IS HEADING FOR A WEAKNESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING NORTH OF BEATRIZ. THIS
EVOLUTION SHOULD GRADUALLY CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE
LEFT...WITH A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK EXPECTED BY 48 HR.
HOWEVER...BEFORE THIS TURN OCCURS...THE CENTER IS LIKELY TO PASS
OVER OR NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN MANZANILLO AND CABO
CORRIENTES. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...BUT IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH BASED ON THE CURRENT
POSITION AND MOTION.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING...AND
THE MAXIMUM WINDS COULD REACH 85-90 KT BEFORE THE CENTER INTERACTS
WITH THE COAST OF MEXICO. AFTER THAT...A COMBINATION OF LAND
INTERACTION AND A FORECAST TRACK OVER COLDER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE BEATRIZ TO WEAKEN. THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST ASSUMES THAT LAND INTERACTION WILL NOT CAUSE A RAPID
DISINTEGRATION...WITH THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY DYING OUT OVER THE
COLDER WATER WEST OF CABO CORRIENTES. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS
THAT THE CYCLONE CIRCULATION IS SERIOUSLY DISRUPTED BY THE MOUNTAINS
OF WESTERN MEXICO. IF THIS OCCURS...BEATRIZ WOULD WEAKEN FASTER
AND DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0900Z 18.8N 104.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 19.5N 105.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 20.4N 106.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 20.7N 108.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 20.9N 109.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 21.0N 112.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 21.0N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 21.0N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
EPAC: BEATRIZ - Remnants
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
brunota2003
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9476
- Age: 33
- Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
- Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: BEATRIZ - Hurricane
Well...Beatriz hit the minimum for rapid intensification, starting at 5 am EDT yesterday.
5 am EDT 20 June: Winds were 50 knots (60 mph)
5 am EDT 21 June: Winds were 80 knots (90 mph)
Exactly a 30 knot increase, and the NHC did state the 80 knots this morning is possibly conservative...along with that Beatriz could top off at 85 or 90 knots (100 to 105 mph). Right now, final T#s are 5.0 or 90 knots.
Part of this mornings dicussion:
200 AM PDT TUE JUN 21 2011
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT BEATRIZ HAS DEVELOPED A
WELL-DEFINED 20-25 N MI WIDE EYE...A FEATURE THAT ALSO MADE A
SHORT-LIVED APPEARANCE IN INFRARED IMAGERY. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 90 KT FROM SAB AND 77 KT FROM
TAFB...WITH AUTOMATED ESTIMATES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN OF
90 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 80 KT...
AND THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.
Also, another part of the discussion:
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING...AND
THE MAXIMUM WINDS COULD REACH 85-90 KT BEFORE THE CENTER INTERACTS
WITH THE COAST OF MEXICO.
Depending on what happens between now and the 11 am advisory...perhaps I gave up too early?
5 am EDT 20 June: Winds were 50 knots (60 mph)
5 am EDT 21 June: Winds were 80 knots (90 mph)
Exactly a 30 knot increase, and the NHC did state the 80 knots this morning is possibly conservative...along with that Beatriz could top off at 85 or 90 knots (100 to 105 mph). Right now, final T#s are 5.0 or 90 knots.
Part of this mornings dicussion:
200 AM PDT TUE JUN 21 2011
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT BEATRIZ HAS DEVELOPED A
WELL-DEFINED 20-25 N MI WIDE EYE...A FEATURE THAT ALSO MADE A
SHORT-LIVED APPEARANCE IN INFRARED IMAGERY. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 90 KT FROM SAB AND 77 KT FROM
TAFB...WITH AUTOMATED ESTIMATES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN OF
90 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 80 KT...
AND THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.
Also, another part of the discussion:
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING...AND
THE MAXIMUM WINDS COULD REACH 85-90 KT BEFORE THE CENTER INTERACTS
WITH THE COAST OF MEXICO.
Depending on what happens between now and the 11 am advisory...perhaps I gave up too early?
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It looks mighty close to landfall in the last few hours, looks like its eyewall is certainly raking the coast at the moment. Impressive bout of strengthening overnight, will be itneresting to see whether recon still flys in today?
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139056
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: BEATRIZ - Hurricane
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BEATRIZ INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
500 AM PDT TUE JUN 21 2011
...CENTER OF BEATRIZ RIGHT ALONG THE COAST...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 105.0W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM SSE OF LA FORTUNA MEXICO
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BEATRIZ WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.0 WEST. BEATRIZ IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF BEATRIZ WILL CONTINUE MOVING ALONG THE COAST
OF MEXICO BETWEEN LA FORTUNA AND CABO CORRIENTES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH... 150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BEATRIZ IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY
OR TONIGHT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO OCCURRING ELSEWHERE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA.
RAINFALL...BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ALONG THE COASTS OF THE STATES OF GUERRERO...
JALISCO...COLIMA...AND MICHOACAN IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
HURRICANE BEATRIZ INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
500 AM PDT TUE JUN 21 2011
...CENTER OF BEATRIZ RIGHT ALONG THE COAST...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 105.0W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM SSE OF LA FORTUNA MEXICO
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BEATRIZ WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.0 WEST. BEATRIZ IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF BEATRIZ WILL CONTINUE MOVING ALONG THE COAST
OF MEXICO BETWEEN LA FORTUNA AND CABO CORRIENTES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH... 150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BEATRIZ IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY
OR TONIGHT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO OCCURRING ELSEWHERE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA.
RAINFALL...BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ALONG THE COASTS OF THE STATES OF GUERRERO...
JALISCO...COLIMA...AND MICHOACAN IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
That really is as close as you are going to get to a landfall without it being a technical landfall!
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139056
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: BEATRIZ - Recon
Recon was canceled
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT TUE 21 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JUNE 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-021
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARK: MISSION SCHEDULED FOR 21/1800Z ON
HURRICANE BEATRIZ CANCELED AT 21/1220Z.
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT TUE 21 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JUNE 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-021
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARK: MISSION SCHEDULED FOR 21/1800Z ON
HURRICANE BEATRIZ CANCELED AT 21/1220Z.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
Extratropical94
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 3535
- Age: 29
- Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
- Location: Hamburg, Germany
- Contact:
DOWN TO 70KT, 80MPH
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 211443
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BEATRIZ ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
800 AM PDT TUE JUN 21 2011
...BEATRIZ TURNS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE ALONG THE COAST LATER TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 105.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING
SOUTH OF LA FORTUNA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA FORTUNA NORTHWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BEATRIZ WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.5 WEST. BEATRIZ IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED IN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE CENTER OF BEATRIZ WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BEATRIZ IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO OCCURRING ELSEWHERE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA. THESE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY AS
BEATRIZ MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST.
RAINFALL...BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ALONG THE COASTS OF THE STATES OF GUERRERO...
JALISCO...COLIMA...AND MICHOACAN IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES. WATER LEVELS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER TODAY AS BEATRIZ
MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 211443
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BEATRIZ ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
800 AM PDT TUE JUN 21 2011
...BEATRIZ TURNS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE ALONG THE COAST LATER TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 105.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING
SOUTH OF LA FORTUNA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA FORTUNA NORTHWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BEATRIZ WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.5 WEST. BEATRIZ IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED IN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE CENTER OF BEATRIZ WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BEATRIZ IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO OCCURRING ELSEWHERE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA. THESE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY AS
BEATRIZ MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST.
RAINFALL...BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ALONG THE COASTS OF THE STATES OF GUERRERO...
JALISCO...COLIMA...AND MICHOACAN IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES. WATER LEVELS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER TODAY AS BEATRIZ
MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Good call Crazy!
Still not a bad looking system and still a hurricane and therefore a decent system.
Still not a bad looking system and still a hurricane and therefore a decent system.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139056
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: BEATRIZ - Hurricane
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
1100 AM PDT TUE JUN 21 2011
...BEATRIZ WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...ALL COASTAL WARNINGS
DISCONTINUED...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 106.4W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM
LA FORTUNA TO CABO CORRIENTES.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
NONE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.4 WEST. BEATRIZ IS
NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A GENERAL
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE CENTER OF BEATRIZ WILL
CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO TODAY.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BEATRIZ HAS WEAKENED...AND MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO
TODAY.
RAINFALL...BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ALONG THE COASTS OF THE STATES OF GUERRERO...
JALISCO...COLIMA...AND MICHOACAN IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY AS
BEATRIZ MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
1100 AM PDT TUE JUN 21 2011
...BEATRIZ WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...ALL COASTAL WARNINGS
DISCONTINUED...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 106.4W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM
LA FORTUNA TO CABO CORRIENTES.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
NONE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.4 WEST. BEATRIZ IS
NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A GENERAL
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE CENTER OF BEATRIZ WILL
CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO TODAY.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BEATRIZ HAS WEAKENED...AND MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO
TODAY.
RAINFALL...BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ALONG THE COASTS OF THE STATES OF GUERRERO...
JALISCO...COLIMA...AND MICHOACAN IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY AS
BEATRIZ MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Yeah it really has gone down the pan so to speak rapidly, just got a little too close to land in the end...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139056
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: BEATRIZ - Tropical Storm
TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
200 PM PDT TUE JUN 21 2011
THE APPEARANCE OF BEATRIZ ON SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BECOME VERY
RAGGED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE
WARMED SUBSTANTIALLY. BEATRIZ HAS LIKELY WEAKENED DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION EARLIER TODAY AND INGESTION OF DRY STABLE AIR
ORIGINATING FROM MUCH COLDER WATERS TO THE WEST. THE CYCLONE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER SUB-26C WATERS
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED DOWNWARD. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS AND DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS...OR EARLIER IF THE
SURFACE CIRCULATION LOSES DEFINITION.
AS THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF BEATRIZ HAS DISINTEGRATED...THE
CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 275/10. THE LOW-CONFIDENCE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE CURRENT MOTION AND THE MEDIUM
AND SHALLOW BAM MODELS.
EVEN AS BEATRIZ HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED AWAY FROM THE COAST...MOIST
SOUTHERLY INFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/2100Z 19.0N 106.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 19.1N 107.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 19.1N 109.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 19.1N 110.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/1800Z 19.1N 112.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
200 PM PDT TUE JUN 21 2011
THE APPEARANCE OF BEATRIZ ON SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BECOME VERY
RAGGED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE
WARMED SUBSTANTIALLY. BEATRIZ HAS LIKELY WEAKENED DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION EARLIER TODAY AND INGESTION OF DRY STABLE AIR
ORIGINATING FROM MUCH COLDER WATERS TO THE WEST. THE CYCLONE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER SUB-26C WATERS
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED DOWNWARD. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS AND DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS...OR EARLIER IF THE
SURFACE CIRCULATION LOSES DEFINITION.
AS THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF BEATRIZ HAS DISINTEGRATED...THE
CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 275/10. THE LOW-CONFIDENCE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE CURRENT MOTION AND THE MEDIUM
AND SHALLOW BAM MODELS.
EVEN AS BEATRIZ HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED AWAY FROM THE COAST...MOIST
SOUTHERLY INFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/2100Z 19.0N 106.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 19.1N 107.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 19.1N 109.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 19.1N 110.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/1800Z 19.1N 112.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Hurricane Jed
- Category 2
- Posts: 542
- Age: 36
- Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2011 3:36 pm
- Location: Cen Tex
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139056
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: BEATRIZ - Tropical Storm
Last Advisory has been written
BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF BEATRIZ ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
800 PM PDT TUE JUN 21 2011
...BEATRIZ HAS DISSIPATED...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 107.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT BEATRIZ NO LONGER HAS A
WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION AND HAS DISSIPATED.
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF BEATRIZ WERE ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.0 WEST.
THE REMNANTS WERE MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH...17
KM/H...AND THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF BEATRIZ ARE EXPECTED
TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF BEATRIZ WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON BEATRIZ. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM PLEASE
SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
REMNANTS OF BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
800 PM PDT TUE JUN 21 2011
APPARENTLY...THE INTERACTION OF BEATRIZ WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
OF MEXICO EARLY TODAY HAS DEALT A LETHAL BLOW TO THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. AN ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND MIDDAY INDICATED THAT THERE WAS
NO LONGER A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...AND THAT
THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAD DECREASED EVEN FASTER THAN EARLIER ESTIMATED.
THE SYSTEM ALSO HAS LACKED DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE PAST 10 HOURS OR
SO. THEREFORE...BEATRIZ HAS DISSIPATED AND THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY. SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF BEATRIZ
IS CHARACTERIZED BY COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR...REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0300Z 19.0N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF BEATRIZ ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
800 PM PDT TUE JUN 21 2011
...BEATRIZ HAS DISSIPATED...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 107.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT BEATRIZ NO LONGER HAS A
WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION AND HAS DISSIPATED.
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF BEATRIZ WERE ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.0 WEST.
THE REMNANTS WERE MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH...17
KM/H...AND THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF BEATRIZ ARE EXPECTED
TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF BEATRIZ WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON BEATRIZ. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM PLEASE
SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
REMNANTS OF BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
800 PM PDT TUE JUN 21 2011
APPARENTLY...THE INTERACTION OF BEATRIZ WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
OF MEXICO EARLY TODAY HAS DEALT A LETHAL BLOW TO THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. AN ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND MIDDAY INDICATED THAT THERE WAS
NO LONGER A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...AND THAT
THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAD DECREASED EVEN FASTER THAN EARLIER ESTIMATED.
THE SYSTEM ALSO HAS LACKED DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE PAST 10 HOURS OR
SO. THEREFORE...BEATRIZ HAS DISSIPATED AND THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY. SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF BEATRIZ
IS CHARACTERIZED BY COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR...REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0300Z 19.0N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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-
tolakram
- Admin
- Posts: 19165
- Age: 60
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: EPAC: BEATRIZ - Remnants
Yea, I agree, I think it made landfall and the mid level circulation gave the appearance of it remaining just offshore.
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M a r k
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