WPAC: MEARI [Falcon] - Remnants

[StormingB81]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/flash-rb.html

looking at this it seems it split but the one to the right got some nice rotation in it..wonder if it will condildate and ramp up..what do you think?

[dexterlabio]

Depicting a twin center again, now the other one is northeast of the main center. This could wrap around that center once again I'm feeling that this system will look decent tomorrow when all of its convection are organized and wrapping around a distinct center.

[oaba09]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/flash-rb.html

looking at this it seems it split but the one to the right got some nice rotation in it..wonder if it will condildate and ramp up..what do you think?

If ever it consolidates I think the one at the northeast is the dominant one...

[dexterlabio]

I'm not putting out the possibility of that NE "center" to separate and form its own center...well like yesterday there's an area of vorticity spotted SE from the main center and it happened to be absorbed into the main circulation. I'm thinking that the area of convection to the northeast might also wrap around the center and fill in the north (or northwest) quadrant of the storm, thus this storm might look a lot more decent. Just my thoughts.

[StormingB81]

man it looks like its trying to get its act togther now..gonan be interesting when i wake up tomorrow

[StormingB81]

http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/dat ... t_anim.gif

looking at this if the one to the NE becomes the new center and gets its act together Okinawa could get slammed..

[Chacor]

Up to 40 kt.

WTPQ21 RJTD 231200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1105 MEARI (1105)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231200UTC 18.2N 126.3E FAIR
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 450NM EAST 200NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 241200UTC 23.7N 124.7E 75NM 70%
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 251200UTC 29.2N 123.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 261200UTC 34.9N 124.7E 250NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

WTPQ31 RJTD 230600

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 1105 MEARI (1105)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 230600 UTC IS FAIR.
TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE.
TS WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS.
TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

[oaba09]

WTPN32 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (MEARI) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 18.0N 125.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0N 125.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 20.4N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 23.1N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 26.0N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 28.9N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 35.1N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 41.8N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 18.6N 125.6E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 231200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z
AND 241500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (HAIMA) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
**********

WDPN32 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (MEARI)//
/WARNING NR 08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TS 07W IS SHOWING MANY TRAITS
OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC) IS
ELONGATED, WITH MULTIPLE MINOR VORTICES DEVELOPING AND ROTATING
CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE CENTER. THE LLCC IS NO LONGER EXPOSED, AND
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED CLOSER TO THE
CENTER. A SERIES OF 5 MICROWAVE IMAGES GENERATED OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS HAVE GIVEN A BOOST OF CONFIDENCE REGARDING CENTER LOCATION.
THE MICROWAVE IMAGES ALSO CONFIRM THAT ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF
CONVECTION IS DISPLACED FROM THE SYSTEM CENTER, THE BANDING IS
ORIENTED AROUND A SINGLE, DISTINCT VORTEX. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ANALYSIS IS BASED PRIMARILY ON A 230114Z ASCAT PASS, THE MICROWAVE
SIGNATURE FROM A 230948Z SSMIS IMAGE, A SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE
FROM PGTW OF 35 KNOTS, AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
43 TO 49 KNOTS. THE ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS A 150 MILE WIDE SWATH OF 30
TO 40 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, HENCE THE 35 KNOT
WIND RADII ARE ADJUSTED FROM ANALYSIS TIME, AND THE ADJUSTMENTS ARE
THEN REFLECTED THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. TS 07W IS
TRACKING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE,
WHICH IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 28N 145E. THE UPPER LEVEL
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX PATTERN WITH A BROAD NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED WEAKNESS ALONG THE 130TH LONGITUDE. THIS IS ALLOWING
TROPICAL STORM MEARI TO TRACK POLEWARD. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM THE YELLOW SEA TOWARD THE
NORTHERN RYUKUS. THIS LOW IS NOT REFLECTING ON THE 500 MB ANALYSIS,
INDICATING IT IS CONFINED TO THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE AND WILL ACT AS A
SHEARING FORCE BUT NOT A STEERING FORCE. AT THE MOMENT, POLEWARD
OUTFLOW APPEARS SEVERELY IMPINGED, WITH A SUBSIDENT ATMOSPHERE
PREVAILING NORTH OF 20 DEGREES LATITUDE. THIS IS A RESULT OF A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM AND THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHWEST. THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE
TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO LINK UP WITH WHAT LITTLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
DOES EXIST, WHICH MAY DEVELOP A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY, HOWEVER, THE 35
KNOT WIND RADII OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STORM HAVE BEEN
INCREASED BY 30 PER CENT DUE TO ASCAT DATA AND THE CONSISTENT INPUTS
OF DETERMINISTIC MODELS.
B. THE WIDE EXPANSE OF 30 TO 40 KNOT WINDS HAS RESULTED IN AN
EXPANSION OF THE FORECASTED 35 KNOT WIND RADII THROUGH TAU 48. TS
07W IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE AXIS OF THE STEERING RIDGE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES POLEWARD, IT
WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SUBSIDENCE. THESE IMPEDIMENTS WILL KEEP TS
07W DEVELOPING AT A LESS-THAN-CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. PEAK INTENSITY
WILL COME JUST AS IT CRESTS THE RIDGE, NEAR TAU 48. MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE BONIN HIGH, WHICH IS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE,
RETROGRADE TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL. THE RETROGRADING RIDGE WILL
HELP DRIVE THE LLCC WELL WEST OF OKINAWA, BUT GRADIENT COMPRESSION
BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND THE EXPANSIVE WINDFIELD OVER THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM MAY AFFECT THE RYUKUS WITH NEAR-GALE
TO GALE FORCE SOUTHEASTERLIES. AFTER TAU 48, TS 07W WILL TRACK INTO
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATERS AND BEGIN WEAKENING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY UNTIL TS 07W ROUNDS
THE CREST OF THE RIDGE NEAR TAU 48.
C. A SHARP DROP IN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR NEAR THE
30TH LATITUDE AND TS 07W WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS INTO THE
YELLOW SEA. THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (XTT) AND ENCOUNTER SEVERE INCREASES IN
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NORTH OF THE 35TH LATITUDE. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT DISPARITY IN MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 72, THE DISPARITY
IS DECREASING WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN, AND ALL AIDS EXCEPT
GFDN TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTH OF SEOUL. THE JTWC TRACK CROSSES FROM
WEST OF CONSENSUS TO EAST OF AND FASTER THAN CONSENSUS ONCE XTT
BEGINS. THIS IS DUE TO AN OBSERVED AND DOCUMENTED TENDENCY FOR
CONSENSUS TO BE SLOW AND LEFT OF ACTUAL TRACK IN RECURVATURE AND XTT
SCENARIOS.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[rdhdstpchld]

very strange to see clouds moving from east to west...bit windy through the night

[HURAKAN]

latest infrared

[HURAKAN]

WTPN32 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (MEARI) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 19.5N 126.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 126.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 22.2N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 25.2N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 28.3N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 31.7N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 38.7N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 44.8N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 125.8E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NUMEROUS SMALL-
SCALE VORTICES CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND ROTATE AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF TS 07W. HOWEVER, THE CENTER OF THE BROADER CIRCULATION
HAS CONSOLIDATED A BIT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND IS THEREFORE MORE
READILY IDENTIFIED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES, INCLUDING A 231659Z AMSR-
E PASS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT
WITH WIND SPEEDS INDICATED IN A 231220Z ASCAT PASS. TS 07W IS
TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE 35 KNOT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY LARGER IN BOTH THE ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BASED ON
THE ASCAT PASS, WHICH SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE GALE AREA TO THE EAST AND
NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. TS 07W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT INTRODUCED BY INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
WILL VIE WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW TO LIMIT THE
INTENSIFICATION RATE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU
72, THE SYSTEM WILL UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND WEAKEN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE
OVER COOLER WATER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 19
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (HAIMA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 362
WTPQ51 RJTD 231800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1105 MEARI (1105)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231800UTC 19.6N 126.0E FAIR
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 450NM SOUTHEAST 200NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 241800UTC 25.0N 123.8E 75NM 70%
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 251800UTC 30.7N 123.8E 180NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 261800UTC 36.0N 125.0E 250NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 271800UTC 39.5N 129.2E 280NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
120HF 281800UTC 42.6N 134.8E 375NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT =
NNNN

[StormingB81]

I am kind of shocked Okinawa has not gone to TCCOR 3...I mean some models still put it close enough to Okinawa that it can get very windy..and remember TCCOR goes on 58MPH winds or more not typhoon strangth and the storm is starting to get its act together quickly...COuld be an interesting day or I can just be wrong...lol

[oaba09]

It's still raining heavily here. Classes have been suspended in metro manila and some other parts of Luzon. Flooding has also been recorded on some locations. There are also moderate winds from time to time.

[dhoeze]

You can say that again.
Last night gut stuck in traffice for 4.5 hours instead of my usual 45mins drive home from work.
I think we received around 150mm of rainfall over the 24 hours period.
Its raining really really hard right now.

[StormingB81]

I take that back I see all models are pretty much in agreeing on around where the stor mwill do betwwen tawain and Okinawa..They said we will still see tropical stor mforce winds here ranging from 40-50 mph..nothing to write home about but just a crappy weekend...lol

[KWT]

Very odd and large looking system, just doesn't want to tighten up!

Got a large region of convection thats for sure!

[StormingB81]

It looks like is is basrely moving now which could pose a problem because if it takes longer to get there then that blocking system could sent it NE sooner..something to watch out for...this storm is just all kinds of odd and throwing loops holes and taunting...

[StormingB81]

While it looks like it has stalled out to the naked eye it looks like it is finally getting its act together...