WPAC: MEARI [Falcon] - Remnants

[supercane]

SAB agrees with you:
TXPQ25 KNES 260348
TCSWNP
A. 07W (MEARI)
B. 26/0301Z
C. 36.4N
D. 123.5E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. EXTRATROPICAL
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY ACCELERATING AND WHAT LITTLE CONVECTION
REMAINS IS POLEWARD AND EASTWARD OF THE CENTER...BOTH CHARACTERISTICS
OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TURK

Latest prognostic reasonings:
WTPQ31 RJTD 260000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR STS 1105 MEARI (1105)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 260000 UTC IS FAIR.
STS WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
STS WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTHEAST.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
STS WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO TS WITHIN 12 HOURS.
STS WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO STAY IN LOW SST AREA
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.
STS WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 48 HOURS.=

WDPN32 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (MEARI)//
/WARNING NR 18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM 07W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 30 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY
WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION THAT IS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE SUBSIDENCE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW, ALONG
WITH UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND TS 07W, ARE
SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. POSITION IS BASED
ON THE FIX FROM PGTW AND FROM ANIMATED RADAR DATA FROM SOUTH KOREA.
INTENSITY IS BASED ON LOCAL SHORE OBSERVATIONS AND A PREVIOUS
251324Z ASCAT PASS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TS MEARI WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE STR FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE TURNING
NORTHEASTERLY AS AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH LIFTS THE SYSTEM
INTO THE BAROCLINIC WESTERLIES. TS 07W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN
THE COLD WATERS OF THE YELLOW SEA AND THEN WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE
OVER THE ROUGH TERRAIN OF NORTH KOREA AND MANCHURIA. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ALL MEMBERS OF CONSENSUS
GROUPED TOGETHER IN A VERY TIGHT PACKING.//
NNNN

Latest advisories:
WTPQ21 RJTD 260300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1105 MEARI (1105)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260300UTC 36.2N 123.8E GOOD
MOVE NNW 27KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 270300UTC 40.0N 123.7E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 280000UTC 42.0N 127.9E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

WTKO20 RKSL 260200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 21
NAME STS 1105 MEARI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 260200UTC 36.0N 124.2E
MOVEMENT N 24KT
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 260800UTC 38.2N 124.3E WITHIN 40NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
12HR
POSITION 261400UTC 39.7N 124.9E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
18HR
POSITION 262000UTC 40.6N 125.7E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 988HPA 49KT
24HR
POSITION 270200UTC 41.5N 126.6E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

South Korea radar:

[Chacor]

JTWC keeping Meari alive...

WTPN32 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (MEARI) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 36.7N 122.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 36.7N 122.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 39.2N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 41.3N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 37.3N 122.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS)07W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED AND INTACT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER BUT VOID OF CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 35-KT
DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW AND KNES AND FROM NEARBY SHIP AND LAND
OBSERVATIONS. TS O7W HAS DEFLECTED TO THE NORTHWEST AS ITS VERTICAL
STRUCTURE ERODED AND A LOWER REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTHEAST ASSUMED STEERING. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE STEERING RIDGE AND RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. IT WILL THEN MAKE LANDFALL AND DISSIPATE
BEFORE TAU 24. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN LOOSE
AGREEMENT BUT ALL FAVOR THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO WITH GFDN TO THE
LEFT OF AND JGSM TO THE RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS TRACK FORECAST
IS RIGHT ALONG BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z.//

...Likewise JMA, still an STS:
WTPQ21 RJTD 260600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1105 MEARI (1105)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260600UTC 36.8N 123.0E GOOD
MOVE NNW 24KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 400NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 270600UTC 40.0N 123.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 280600UTC 42.5N 128.0E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[Chacor]

00Z warnings:

JMA 40 kt:
WTPQ21 RJTD 270000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1105 MEARI (1105)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270000UTC 37.8N 124.3E FAIR
MOVE ENE 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 280000UTC 40.2N 127.8E 85NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

KMA 43 kt:
WTKO20 RKSL 270000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 29
NAME TS 1105 MEARI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 270000UTC 38.9N 123.5E
MOVEMENT NNE 8KT
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 43KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 270600UTC 39.8N 125.3E WITHIN 40NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 37KT
12HR
POSITION 271200UTC 40.2N 127.1E WITHIN 0NM
PRES 998HPA
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

JTWC 25 kt last warning:
WTPN32 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (MEARI) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 38.3N 124.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 38.3N 124.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 39.9N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 41.9N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 38.7N 125.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME ELONGATED FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST AND HAS LOST A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF ITS CONVECTION.
THERE IS VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM, AND
NONE OVER THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM HAS LOST MOST OF ITS ENERGY IN THE
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OF COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IN THE REGION. THE SYSTEM IS ON THE VERGE OF MAKING
LANDFALL IN NORTH KOREA AND IS EXPECTED TO FALL APART FURTHER AS THE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE ROUGH TERRAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE HAMGYEONG
MOUNTAIN RANGE. POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON THE PGTW FIX
SUPPLEMENTED BY SOUTH KOREAN RADAR. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN).
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 8 FEET.

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 270300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1105 MEARI (1105)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270300UTC 38.7N 124.6E FAIR
MOVE ENE 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 280300UTC 40.5N 128.5E 85NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 270600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME LOW FORMER TS 1105 MEARI (1105)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270600UTC 40N 126E
MOVE ENE 10KT
PRES 996HPA =

[ManilaTC]

There. The wet tropical storm Meari/Falcon is now officially a goner.