ATL: ARLENE - Remnants

[ROCK]

oh brother....here we go with the GFS and EURO wars.....

I seem to recall the EURO picking this up and never wavering in a MX landfall but not really a big deal now...shows about over....

[Cyclenall]

The long-range models ended up picking this one up around 250 hours before becoming a TC. Pretty good .

ALTHOUGH THE
WINDS ALOFT ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE AND THE WATERS UNDERNEATH THE
CYCLONE ARE VERY WARM...THE CURRENT STORM STRUCTURE DOES NOT SEEM
SUITABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. BESIDES...THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING IS DECREASING NOW THAT LANDFALL SEEMS
IMMINENT.

Did anyone else find this funny to read? I love how they used that word in that context.

That very intense convection on Arlene to the SE of the center was amazing in how straight in formed in a line during these past 5 hours.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011
400 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2011

...ARLENE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR CABO ROJO MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 97.3W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM N OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA NORTHWARD TO LA
CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA CRUZ NORTHWARD TO LA PESCA MEXICO
* PALMA SOLA SOUTHWARD TO VERACRUZ MEXICO

THE HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS
MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.3 WEST...OR ON THE
COAST OF MEXICO VERY NEAR CABO ROJO. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
INLAND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST TODAY...AND ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ONSHORE
THROUGH THIS MORNING.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR
AND TO THE NORTH OF CABO ROJO. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN

NNNN

[JonathanBelles]

Final landfall information:
http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... -landfall/

[AHS2011]

This doesn't have anything to do Arlene, excuse me for being off topic, but, I was wondering if anyone knew where the next chance an Atlantic cyclone will form (Bret)?

[cycloneye]

Arlene tried right up until landfall to become a hurricane.But the increase in speed may have cost Arlene not to become one.Hopefully,nothing bad occurs in Mexico with the flooding.

[ronjon]

Some welcome heavy rain for extreme south Tx today for Brownsville and McAllen from Arlene.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BRO&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011
700 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2011

...CENTER OF ARLENE OVER THE CABO ROJO AREA...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 97.5W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM N OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SSE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA NORTHWARD TO LA
CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA CRUZ NORTHWARD TO LA PESCA MEXICO
* BARRA DE NAUTLA SOUTHWARD TO VERACRUZ MEXICO

THE HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS
MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.5 WEST...OR OVER THE
COAST OF MEXICO NEAR CABO ROJO. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
INLAND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST TODAY...AND ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...
335 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

BASED ON DATA FROM AN AUTOMATED STATION AT ISLA LOBOS MEXICO...THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ONSHORE
THROUGH THIS MORNING.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR
AND TO THE NORTH OF CABO ROJO. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/BERG

[AHS2011]

That doesn't make any sense. It was 996 MB before landfall and at the 7 A.M. Advisory, the pressure dropped to 993 MB. Will the winds correspond with the pressure drop?

[AHS2011]

Sorry, I meant 8 A.M. Advisory.

[HURAKAN]

That doesn't make any sense. It was 996 MB before landfall and at the 7 A.M. Advisory, the pressure dropped to 993 MB. Will the winds correspond with the pressure drop?

pressure adjusted based on a surface ob from Mexico

[Blown Away]

Considering the reality that TS Arlene will cause problems for folks in Mexico, strictly as a weather enthusiast, this is a perfect storm to site on the porch and observe.

[HURAKAN]

it was making a run to hurricane intensity before landfall

[HURAKAN]

It looks very good as it moves inland

[Rgv20]

Effects of Arlene can be felt over here in the Valley.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
642 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2011

TXZ253>257-301400-
HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-
COASTAL CAMERON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MCALLEN...EDINBURG...PHARR...MISSION...
WESLACO...RAYMONDVILLE...BROWNSVILLE...HARLINGEN...
PORT MANSFIELD...PORT ISABEL...SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...
LAGUNA HEIGHTS...LAGUNA VISTA
642 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2011

...HEAVY RAIN BANDS FROM ARLENE MOVING INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...

AT 635 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN BROWNSVILLE
INDICATED THAT A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF CAMERON COUNTY. THIS RAIN BAND IS MOVING
TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AT AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH AND IS PRODUCING
RAINFALL RATES FROM ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES AN HOUR.

THESE AREAS OF TROPICAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO HIDALGO AND
WILLACY COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS PRODUCING SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

THESE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OR PONDING
OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ROADWAYS. EARLY MORNING MOTORISTS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND MAINTAIN A SAFE FOLLOWING DISTANCE BETWEEN
VEHICLES THROUGH MID MORNING.

$$

SPEECE

[HURAKAN]

Arlene minus the landmasses

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011
1000 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2011

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE MEXICAN AUTOMATED STATION AT
ISLA LOBOS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF ARLENE HAS MADE LANDFALL
ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO. THE STATION REPORTED A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 993 MB AS THE CENTER PASSED JUST TO THE NORTH...AND
BASED ON THIS AND A JUST-RECEIVED AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT. SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THE VORTEX
IS TILTED SOUTHWARD WITH HEIGHT...AS THE APPARENT CENTER IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SOUTH OF THE CENTER LOCATION INDICATED BY THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

ARLENE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FITS AND STARTS...WITH AN OVERALL MOTION
OF 270/6. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE U. S.
SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNTIL IT DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
CENTRAL MEXICO IN 24-36 HR.

ARLENE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER EASTERN MEXICO...WITH THE CYCLONE
DISSIPATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO BY 36 HR. SEVERAL
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO IN 24-48 HR...WHICH MOVES WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. WHETHER THIS IS THE REMAINS OF ARLENE OR
A NEW SYSTEM IS SPECULATIVE AT THIS TIME. EITHER WAY...SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO COLD SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EXPECTED PATH.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 21.6N 97.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 21.4N 99.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 01/1200Z 21.2N 100.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 97.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NNW OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES

[CrazyC83]

Based on the Recon data last night, structural changes and pressure estimates, I estimate the landfall intensity was 60 kt. I would go higher (they supported 55 kt at 0000Z even with the distant estimates disregarded) but I don't have enough confidence to call it a hurricane.

[HURAKAN]

Arlene at landfall (WU)