WPAC: INVEST 94W [Goring]

#41 Postby **StormingB81** » Mon Jul 04, 2011 4:39 pm

I am guessing maybe a TCFA very soon?

#42 Postby **supercane** » Mon Jul 04, 2011 7:16 pm

ABPW10 PGTW 041730
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/041730Z-050600ZJUL2011//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.0N
133.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 134.5E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
NORTH OF PALAU. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
IMPROVED CURVED CONVECTION INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN OUTER
PERIPHERIES. A 032342Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS CURVED
CONVECTION. A 040048Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS ONLY THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE LLCC WITH 5- TO 10-KNOT WINDS AND STRONGER WINDS
ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES INDICATING A MONSOON
DEPRESSION-LIKE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES THE SYSTEM
SEVERAL DEGREES SOUTH OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS UNDER
MODERATE (25-30 KNOTS) EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM HAS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.9N
127.0E, APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES,
HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DISSIPATED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2).//
NNNN

#43 Postby **StormingB81** » Mon Jul 04, 2011 7:28 pm

This wind shear is killing this storm...

#44 Postby **StormingB81** » Mon Jul 04, 2011 8:23 pm

Anyone see th shear forecast..is it supposed to remain high or let up?

#45 Postby **supercane** » Mon Jul 04, 2011 11:08 pm

Check out the PSU Tropical Western Pacific E-Wall by Fred Gadomski for forecast shear maps and more.

Not listed in JMA's 00Z analysis.

Latest ASCAT pass only shows east side again:

#46 Postby **ManilaTC** » Tue Jul 05, 2011 1:43 am

looks more like a Monsoon Depression to me.

#47 Postby **ManilaTC** » Tue Jul 05, 2011 1:53 am

By the way a new invest might be on the way as hinted by the marianas forecast...

before you react :cheesy:

its not included in the monsoon trough

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM 8N143E TO A WEAK
CIRCULATION CENTERED SOUTH OF CHUUK NEAR 5N151E THEN CONTINUES
EASTWARD TO END SOUTH OF POHNPEI NEAR 6N158E. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING BETWEEN 3N AND 11N FROM 147E TO
164E...SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 3N144E TO 3N150E...AND WITHIN 70 MILES
OF A LINE FROM 12N145E TO 12N152E. THIS INCLUDES CHUUK AND POHNPEI
BUT IS JUST WEST OF KOSRAE.

================================

[b]AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
349 PM CHST TUE JUL 5 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ACROSS CHUUK AND POHNPEI IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS TO WITHIN ABOUT 100 MILES EAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST
OF GUAM...BUT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT IN THE MARIANAS
WATERS. LIGHT WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE LITTLE CHANGED FROM YESTERDAY. THE GFS STILL TRIES TO
DEVELOP A WEAK CIRCULATION SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND MOVE IT INTO THE
MARIANAS OVER THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS MONSOON
SOUTHWESTERLIES INTO THE MARIANAS. THE UKMET BRINGS A TROUGH INTO
THE ISLANDS FRI/SAT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. GIVEN THE CURRENT
SITUATION AS SHOWN ON SATELLITE HAVE STAYED WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND IF
GFS/UKMET TRENDS PERSIST.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH WEST WITH A SLOW
MOVING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS KOSRAE ON THE FAR EASTERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER...BUT
MOST OF IT IS LIKELY HIGH CLOUDS WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION. POHNPEI
IS STILL LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE DEEPEST AND MOST ACTIVE
CONVECTION. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AT POHNPEI BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DEVELOPING TRADE-WIND TROUGH WILL BRING THE
NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE MARSHALLS BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
WINDS HAVE WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY AT YAP AND KOROR AS LOW-LEVEL
RIDGING AS TEMPORARILY SET UP IN THE REGION FOLLOWING THE NORTHWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FOR A SHORT TIME TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY UNTIL A WEAK CIRCULATION
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF CHUUK AND POHNPEI NEARS THE AREA. THIS WILL
GRADUALLY TURN WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST. IF MODEL TIMING IS GOOD WINDS
WILL TURN TO SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. FOR NOW...GFS SHOWS
GRADUAL DRYING THROUGH THE WEEK...WHILE ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW MUCH
WETTER CONDITIONS WITH THE WESTWARD MOVING DISTURBANCE. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP EYE ON THIS SYSTEM TO SEE HOW IT DEVELOPS.

#48 Postby **Typhoon Hunter** » Tue Jul 05, 2011 2:20 am

That wave near Chuuk is looking pretty juicy! I can handle another Invest out there, just no more in the CONFUSING HELL BLOB MESS in Philippines Sea right now please! :grrr:

KWT · #49 Postby **KWT** » Tue Jul 05, 2011 4:33 am

Looks like this one is going up and down between medium and low recently!

ECM is weak with the system but does just about keep a closed low.

dexterlabio · #50 Postby **dexterlabio** » Tue Jul 05, 2011 6:37 am

Typhoon Hunter wrote:That wave near Chuuk is looking pretty juicy! I can handle another Invest out there, just no more in the CONFUSING HELL BLOB MESS in Philippines Sea right now please!

Same thing here. Yeah right. I'll be coming back if at least a decent tropical depression develops from this wide swath of confusing circulations......

Infdidoll · #51 Postby **Infdidoll** » Tue Jul 05, 2011 7:33 am

Typhoon Hunter wrote:That wave near Chuuk is looking pretty juicy! I can handle another Invest out there, just no more in the CONFUSING HELL BLOB MESS in Philippines Sea right now please!

LOL! Those are my sentiments EXACTLY! I'm going to sit back, have a beer, and wait to see some justified excitement.

#52 Postby **ManilaTC** » Tue Jul 05, 2011 10:31 am

dexterlabio wrote:
Typhoon Hunter wrote:That wave near Chuuk is looking pretty juicy! I can handle another Invest out there, just no more in the CONFUSING HELL BLOB MESS in Philippines Sea right now please!

Same thing here. Yeah right. I'll be coming back if at least a decent tropical depression develops from this wide swath of confusing circulations......

Haha...
BLOB!... Invest... BLOB!... Invest... nyahaha

How much stress the NRL/JTWC are being given in to by the Monsoon Trough remains to be seen...
They must be ripping their hairs out nyahahaha

#53 Postby **StormingB81** » Tue Jul 05, 2011 1:45 pm

The WInd Shear is still very high....I cant see anything coming out of this anytime soon..unless shear relaxes alot around the area

KWT · #54 Postby **KWT** » Tue Jul 05, 2011 4:53 pm

I agree anything in this area may well struggle to form, wouldn't shock me to see a TD eventually but much above that and I'll be surprised.

#55 Postby **StormingB81** » Tue Jul 05, 2011 9:01 pm

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/em ... single.gif

If it where to develop into anything or even not if it moves slow and has alot of rain with this model could be a soaker for Okinawa. With the Shear though unless it dies down it will just be a soaker

#56 Postby **StormingB81** » Wed Jul 06, 2011 12:28 am

Looks like JTWC has dropped this one...

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.6N
126.5E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

phwxenthusiast · #57 Postby **phwxenthusiast** » Wed Jul 06, 2011 2:31 am

lol i'm so confused... NRLMRY still has it on their site but based on JTWC's latest update, it looks like they maybe talking about Invest 98W??

and look, another one popped up, this time in SCS.. :lol:

EDIT: oops, nope i was wrong.. they ARE talking about 94W... looked at my records and the "previous" location they mentioned was indeed for 94W... so yeah 98W is now dead

#58 Postby **supercane** » Wed Jul 06, 2011 11:05 am

ABPW10 PGTW 060600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/060600Z-070600ZJUL2011//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.7N
129.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 123.8E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. HIGH NORTHERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (25+ KNOTS) IS DISPLACING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LLCC. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL
CONVECTIVE BANDING STRUCTURE OR ORGANIZATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT WITH FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW INTO A
TUTT CELL LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE MARIANAS ISLANDS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.6N
126.5E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

From PAGASA:
At 2:00 p.m. today, the Low Pressure Area (LPA) was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 240 km East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan (19.2°N, 124.0°E). Another Low Pressure Area (LPA) was estimated at 730 km East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan (19.5°N, 129.5°E).

No mention in JMA's 12Z analysis.

#59 Postby **theavocado** » Wed Jul 06, 2011 5:56 pm

ClarkEligue wrote:How much stress the NRL/JTWC are being given in to by the Monsoon Trough remains to be seen...
They must be ripping their hairs out nyahahaha

I seem to remember in 2009 it was like this; they opened tons of invests when the trough was very active. I guess that is their answer to having no aircraft recon.

In 2010 the monsoon trough never really set up and JT never cycled through the invests like they had in the past. I think we all forgot what a real WPAC season looks like. My personal reminder came with the STY in the spring.

#60 Postby **supercane** » Wed Jul 06, 2011 11:14 pm

Not much to see here, folks, at least of organized convection (but interesting wisps off Taiwan):

20110707.0232.mtsat2.x.vis1km.94WINVEST.15kts-1010mb-239N-1257E.100pc.jpg

WPAC: INVEST 94W [Goring]

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