WPAC: INVEST 94W [Goring]

[StormingB81]

another view of how split the models are..it all will depend what that High well do.

[StormingB81]

And last one..Chances are going up

[dexterlabio]

Soo Models are really splt...CMC is putting it over Okinawa. Others put it towards Tawain..and the Euro..well it does a hard left between Tawain and PI right into the SCS.

Euro always want to take note of that "tail" or the induced SW monsoon. Well it's still early to say words but if the steering pattern won't change until next week, this system might just follow Meari's track or between Taiwan and Okinawa.

[dexterlabio]

^Also like to note that the euro's latest forecast track is quite alarming for Luzon coz if the storm will pass through the northernmost tip then winds and rains would lash the island and at the same time enhance the monsoon once again across the country just like what Meari/Falcon did. The next local name here for the next TC is also kinda nasty and fits for a nasty kind of storm.

[StormingB81]

UPGRADED TO MEDIUM!

1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.0N
135.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.6N 134.3E, APPROXIMATELY 30 NM
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION. A 030108Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS AN ORGANIZED 10- TO 15-KNOT
LLCC WITH STRONGER 20- TO 25-KNOT WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM PALAU INDICATE 10-KNOT WESTERLIES
AND 1007 MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED SOUTH
OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[KWT]

Very interesting ECM run, the models sure are split as to where to take this and how fast it moves.

My gut goes with the GFS this time however, the ECM tracks just seems a little too unlikely unless it stays very weak.

[StormingB81]

Yea alot have it going either toward Tawain or Okinawa or right near Okinawa then Turning...we shall see

[StormingB81]

That line is getting closer to Okinawa...gonna have to wait and see again

[KWT]

Yea alot have it going either toward Tawain or Okinawa or right near Okinawa then Turning...we shall see

Yep, the ECM just seems to be a little on the slow side in moving this system towards the N/NW.

[StormingB81]

It is the story of the year in Okinawa..all are comming on weekends this year..lol

[StormingB81]

One thing that siprises me is that there is nothing on JMA yet..usually JMA has it atleast a low when JTWC has it at a medium...

[StormingB81]

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 09N 132E NW SLOWLY

[StormingB81]

Downgraded to low...IMO and this sint official It will be upgraded again later today when either 94 or 96 becomes the dominate one..we shall see though

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.6N
134.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 133.6E, APPROXIMATELY 65 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS WANING
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. COMPARISON BETWEEN 020107Z AND
021213Z ASCAT IMAGES CONFIRMS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) HAS FILLED SIGNIFICANTLY AND WINDS HAVE DECREASED DURING THE
PAST 12 HOURS. 24 HOUR PRESSURE RISES AT KOROR, PALAU (PTRO) ARE 2
MB. A 021102Z SSMIS PASS REVEALS AN ABSENCE OF CORE CONVECTION,
WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF CONVECTION DISPLACED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS REVEAL THAT
THE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE IN THE DEEP EASTERLIES
ALONG THE 10TH LATITUDE. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION INDICATES THE LLCC
IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF GREATER SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A TUTT
CELL NORTHEAST OF LUZON. THE SUBSIDENCE IS EASING, HOWEVER, AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN THE CIRCULATION AND SAMAR IS ONLY 10 TO
15 KNOTS. SEA WATER TEMPERATURES EXCEED 30 DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE
PHILIPPINE SEA. THE LLCC EXISTS AS ONE OF SEVERAL WEAK CIRCULATIONS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR
CAM RANH BAY, VIETNAM, ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND OVER PALAWAN
AND THEN NORTHERN MINDANAO, AND INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA, WHERE IT
RUNS ALONG THE 9TH LATITUDE TO JUST WEST OF THE MARIANAS. EMBEDDED
WITHIN THAT TROUGH ARE A SERIES OF 3 MINOR CIRCULATIONS, ALL OF
WHICH ARE IN THE EARLY STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT AND STRUGGLING TO
ORGANIZE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE WHICH ONE
WILL DEVELOP, OR WHETHER THE TWO WEST OF THE PHILIPPINES WILL MERGE
INTO A BROAD MONSOON DEPRESSION. OVER THE WEEKEND, THAT IS THE
SOLUTION THE MAJORITY OF MODELS HAVE GRAVITATED TOWARDS, WITH A
BROAD MONSOON DEPRESSION DEVELOPING OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA NEAR
MID-WEEK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

[StormingB81]

Looks like this will dissipate and 96W will be the main invest..

[dexterlabio]

This is really so confusing. I thought 94W is dying and 96W becoming the dominant one then now 94W is now located on the same spot where 96W is and the latter was said to be dissipated and off in NRL site. So maybe I should transfer the things I posted in the 96W thread to here.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Tell me about it Dexter, totally confused this end too!

Anyway something's just been upgraded to MEDIUM again and I think it's this one (originally posted in 96W thread)

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.0N
133.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 134.5E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
NORTH OF PALAU. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
IMPROVED CURVED CONVECTION INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN OUTER
PERIPHERIES. A 032342Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS CURVED
CONVECTION. A 040048Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS ONLY THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE LLCC WITH 5- TO 10-KNOT WINDS AND STRONGER WINDS
ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES INDICATING A MONSOON
DEPRESSION-LIKE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES THE SYSTEM
SEVERAL DEGREES SOUTH OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS UNDER
MODERATE (25-30 KNOTS) EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM HAS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[Infdidoll]

I was just talking to my neighbor outside. A diver. He and my husband were griping that we needed another typhoon to come through here to blow some of the nastiness out of the water that was stirred up by the last typhoon. Crazy people around these parts hoping for typhoons.

[Chacor]

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 11N 132E NW SLOWLY.

[StormingB81]

Sorry for posting stuff on the wrong storm..glad I wasnt the only one though...lol IF and when it becomes a tropical depression wonder what the tracks will look like

[StormingB81]

94W is the only one left standing the ONLY one left on the NRL site..