WPAC: INVEST 94W [Goring]

[phwxenthusiast]

you can see the exposed LLCC right over an island.. what is interesting here is that computer models seem to be intent in forming a cyclone right at this latitude... looking at the VWS maps, the area is just too hostile right now with 30 and even 40kt shear...

the models may be seeing something that i don't...

[StormingB81]

If you look at the sat photo there is like no clouds where it is pointing too...I think this one will be off soom just my opinion though still alot of shear in the area...



THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.0N
123.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 125.7E, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AFB. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
070121Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 20 KNOTS OF SOUTHERLY WINDS DISPLACED EAST
OF THE LLCC, WHICH IS A PRODUCT OF PRESSURE GRADIENT INDUCED FLOW. A
070339Z TRMM 37H GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS VERY LITTLE LOW
LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDING STRUCTURE OR ORGANIZATION. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF VERY STRONG
25- TO 30- KNOT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH CONVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT. AN OBSERVATION 55 NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC
RECORDED A PRESSURE OF 1002 MB WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 11
KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[phwxenthusiast]

here's the latest vis...



if you look at 24.8N 125.0E you can see the very weak circulation near Miyako Island.. the location on the JTWC was from 06z so obviously it has moved since...
i still don't understand how something will form out of this, to be quite honest

[Typhoon Hunter]

Yeah it certainly looks like Miyakojima is being DRYWALLED! Wonderful islands there, turquoise blue water and reefs!

ECMWF actually does develop some sort of circulation over Taiwan in the short term which could be quite a soaker for them. In the long term there looks to be a monster forming out in the Wpac south of Japan - more on that in the Wpac season thread!

[supercane]

ABPW10 PGTW 070600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/070600Z-080600ZJUL2011//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.0N
123.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 125.7E, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
070121Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 20 KNOTS OF SOUTHERLY WINDS DISPLACED EAST
OF THE LLCC, WHICH IS A PRODUCT OF PRESSURE GRADIENT INDUCED FLOW. A
070339Z TRMM 37H GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS VERY LITTLE LOW
LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDING STRUCTURE OR ORGANIZATION. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF VERY STRONG
25- TO 30- KNOT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH CONVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT. AN OBSERVATION 55 NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC
RECORDED A PRESSURE OF 1002 MB WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 11
KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[KWT]

Well that really is an exposed low isn't it, jeez there is nothing else in sight!

[StormingB81]

Now on the JMA site:

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 22N 125E NORTH SLOWLY

[StormingB81]

UPGRADED TO MEDIUM:

1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 23.9N
125.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 125.4E, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN IMPROVED FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 080243Z TRMM 85H GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 080059Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A 15- TO 20- KNOT
LLCC WITH 25 KNOTS OF SOUTHERLY WINDS DISPLACED EAST OF THE LLCC,
WHICH IS A PRODUCT OF PRESSURE GRADIENT INDUCED FLOW. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF HIGH 30- TO
35- KNOT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AN OBSERVATION 70 NM TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM IS INDICATING A PRESSURE OF 1002 MB
WITH NORTHERLY 20-KNOT WINDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE, BUT
LACK OF CENTRAL CONVECTION AND UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[phwxenthusiast]

JMA is actually forecasting this to become a TD in 24 hours...

[supercane]

12Z JMA analysis:
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 24N 125E NORTH SLOWLY.

For a medium area, there's still no convection:
20110708.1501.mtsat2.x.ir1km.94WINVEST.20kts-1002mb-244N-1253E.100pc.jpg


And don't see the "banding" on microwave JTWC referred to in their outlook:


Latest ASCAT:

[supercane]

JMA upgrades to TD with the 00Z analysis:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 23N 124E NNW SLOWLY.

20110709.0201.mtsat2.x.vis1km.94WINVEST.20kts-1004mb-238N-1243E.100pc.jpg
Radar from JMA:

[StormingB81]

JMA upgraded to a Tropical Depression

[supercane]

ABPW10 PGTW 090600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/090600Z-100600ZJUL2011//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 24.0N
125.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 124.2E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH NO
CENTRAL CONVECTION AND MINIMAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE
BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 090038Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS
SHOWS 20 TO 25 KNOTS OF PRESSURE GRADIENT INDUCED SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
THE EAST OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE LLCC IS
LOCATED IN A REGION OF HIGH (30+ KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TUTT
CELL SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE DISTURBANCE CAUSING SUBSIDENCE OVER
THE AREA. OBSERVATIONS FROM ISHIGAKIJIMA, JAPAN, 25 NM NORTH OF THE
DISTURBANCE, INDICATE 999 MSLP WITH 10 KNOT WINDS OUT OF THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST AT 09/05Z. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//

TPPN10 PGTW 090557
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W (SW OF OKINAWA)
B. 09/0532Z
C. 23.8N
D. 124.3E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.5 STT: W0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. 38NM SHEAR
UNREPRESENTATIVE. NO MET. PT YIELDS 1.0. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
09/0148Z 23.8N 124.3E TRMM
HATHAWAY

[P.K.]

06Z:

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA
AT 23.9N 124.0E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

[KWT]

A little surprised JMA decded to upgrade thisb system, it has clearly got a circulation but convection is still pretty weak.

[Chacor]

12Z
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA
AT 23.9N 123.3E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

[supercane]

JTWC downgrades development chances to low in a special Significant Tropical Weather Advisory:
ABPW10 PGTW 091530
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/091530Z-100600ZJUL2011//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 24.0N
124.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 123.8E, APPROXIMATELY 35 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ISHIGAKAJIMA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH NO CENTRAL CONVECTION AND MINIMAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THIS IS ALSO
EVIDENT ON A 111306Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF HIGH (30+ KNOTS)
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT)
CELL SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE DISTURBANCE CAUSING SUBSIDENCE OVER
THE AREA. RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM ISHIGAKIJIMA, INDICATE 1001 MSLP
AND RISING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
<snip>

Shear is killing this:

Latest area radar from JMA:

[supercane]

JMA continues to keep this a TD at 18Z:
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA
AT 24.4N 123.0E SEA AROUND OF OKINAWA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.

Taiwan radar:


As does PAGASA:
WTPH RPMM 091800
TTT WARNING 03

AT 1800 09 JULY TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO FOUR POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT ONE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 101800 TWO FOUR POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT THREE EAST AND AT 111800 TWO FOUR POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE ONE SIX POINT THREE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD
WEATHER MANILA

[supercane]

00Z JMA analysis. Note no longer with a warning, indicating estimated MSW are now below 28kt:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 25N 123E NNW SLOWLY.

Other centers carrying this as a TD include PAGASA (below), CWB (no advisories), KMA (no advisories), and CMA (advisory below, 14 m/s ~ 27 kt):
WTPH RPMM 100000
TTT WARNING 04 (FINAL)

AT 0000 10 JULY TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO FIVE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITION AT 110000 TWO SIX POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT THREE EAST WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING FROM WEATHER MANILA PD
WEATHER MANILA

WTPQ20 BABJ 100000
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD 05 INITIAL TIME 100000 UTC
00HR 25.2N 122.6E 998HPA 14M/S
P12HR WNW 20KM/H
P+24HR 24.9N 117.7E 1002HPA 12M/S=

[euro6208]

poor system, if it weren't for the strong shear, this would have been a named system long time ago.