WPAC: MA-ON - Remnants

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CrazyC83
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#401 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jul 19, 2011 5:40 pm

Based on all of those data, my guessing for the landfall(?) intensity was 80 kt with a pressure of 956mb.
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supercane
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#402 Postby supercane » Tue Jul 19, 2011 6:15 pm

Image
WTPQ20 RJTD 192100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1106 MA-ON (1106)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 192100UTC 33.5N 135.0E GOOD
MOVE E 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 70NM EAST 50NM WEST
30KT 350NM EAST 250NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 202100UTC 32.8N 139.9E 85NM 70%
MOVE ESE 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 211800UTC 32.2N 144.2E 180NM 70%
MOVE E 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 221800UTC 34.4N 149.1E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =
Image
WTPN31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 08W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 33.6N 134.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.6N 134.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 33.5N 136.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 33.0N 138.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 32.1N 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 31.7N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 34.1N 147.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 37.7N 151.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 42.7N 156.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 33.6N 135.3E.
TYPHOON (TS) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM WEST-SOUTH-
WEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ABOUT TO
MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE KII PENINSULA IN SOUTHWESTERN HONSHU. CLOUD
TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF CONVECTION HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY
DURING THE PAST TWO HOURS, POTENTIALLY AS A RESULT OF INTERACTION
WITH LAND. A 19/1119Z 91 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION CONCENTRATED IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANTS OF TS 08W. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AS WELL AS A STRONG OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE
NORTHEAST. CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT POSITION IS HIGH BASED ON RADAR
IMAGERY FROM SHIKOKU AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
INTENSITY FROM THE 19/1200Z POSITION WAS ADJUSTED BASED ON NEARBY
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. CURRENT INTENSITY (65 KNOTS) IS ALSO BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD RANGING FROM 55
TO 77 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES TS MA-ON IS
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
AS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS STR BUILDS DURING THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS, TS 08W WILL BEGIN TO STEER SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF EAST AND AWAY
FROM HONSHU. THE STORM WILL ALSO BE INFLUENCED BY A WEAKENING OF
THE STR TO THE EAST UNTIL TAU 48. AFTER THIS POINT, THE EASTERNMOST
EXTENT OF THE STR (EAST OF 150E) WILL BUILD AND BEGIN STEERING MA-ON
TO THE NORTHEAST. LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND A SLOW EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL RESULT
IN WEAKENING AFTER TAU 96. AS A RESULT OF THE ADJUSTED 19/1200Z
INTENSITY, INTENSITIES ON THIS FORECAST HAVE BEEN INCREASED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN, THE NORTHERN OUTLIER;
THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.
//
NNNN
Image
TXPQ26 KNES 192112
TCSWNP
A. 08W (MA-ON)
B. 19/2032Z
C. 33.6N
D. 135.3E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T3.5/4.0/S0.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...7 TENTHS BANDING ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET
IS A 3.0. PT IS A 3.5. FT IS BASED ON PT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...NEWHARD
Image
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Re: WPAC: MA-ON - Typhoon (Ineng)

#403 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Tue Jul 19, 2011 7:02 pm

Large amount of rainfall this morning Nw of Shizuoku, looking at the map below over 60mm in one hour,

Image
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#404 Postby supercane » Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:25 pm

WTPQ50 RJTD 200000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1106 MA-ON (1106) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200000UTC 33.5N 135.6E GOOD
MOVE E 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 300NM EAST 250NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 210000UTC 32.6N 140.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE E 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 220000UTC 32.9N 145.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE E 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 230000UTC 36.2N 150.3E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 240000UTC 41.3N 156.8E 350NM 70%
MOVE NE 18KT
120HF 250000UTC 44.5N 164.9E 450NM 70%
MOVE ENE 17KT =
Image
TPPN11 PGTW 200010
A. TYPHOON 08W (MA-ON)
B. 19/2332Z
C. 33.7N
D. 135.6E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
19/2029Z 33.8N 134.9E SSMS
QUAST
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#405 Postby Chacor » Tue Jul 19, 2011 9:38 pm

Amazed that JMA's keeping this as tropical through 72h.
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Re: WPAC: MA-ON - Severe Tropical Storm (Ineng)

#406 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Wed Jul 20, 2011 1:39 am

I am a little suprised as well, but I do think it will retain some sort of tropicalness through the next 3 days. But is it worthy or warnings? Maybe..

Any how, back home where my wife is, seeing scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Barometer is dropping rather fast as well. But do think the Kanto plain will not see above sustained 40kts. So really good news for Tokyo, and defiantly better news farther north at Fukushima.

Image

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#407 Postby Chacor » Wed Jul 20, 2011 6:16 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 200900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1106 MA-ON (1106)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200900UTC 33.5N 137.3E FAIR
MOVE E 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 350NM EAST 250NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 210900UTC 31.8N 141.7E 85NM 70%
MOVE ESE 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 220600UTC 32.7N 145.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE E 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 230600UTC 37.1N 149.6E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Still expected to retain STS strength through 37°N...
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#408 Postby Chacor » Wed Jul 20, 2011 6:18 am

JTWC agrees, and is forecasting Ma-on to reintensify in the next few warning cycles:

WTPN31 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 33.6N 137.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.6N 137.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 32.8N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 31.8N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 31.3N 142.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 31.4N 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 34.4N 147.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 39.1N 151.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 44.4N 157.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 33.4N 137.5E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM SOUTH-
WEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A 20-NM RAGGED
EYE HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED AS WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
DISPLACED THE CENTRAL CONVECTION TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND FROM A REFLECTIVITY RADAR LOOP
FROM JAPAN WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED
FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES, PGTS AND RJTD RANGING FROM 35 TO 65
KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 10 DEGREES NORTH
OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KT) VWS. THE STORM
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF A FLATTENED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
EASTWARD WITH A SLIGHT EQUATORWARD DIP OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, THE SYSTEM WILL SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY WITH
FAVORABLE ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 CELSIUS PLUS) AND
SLIGHTLY RELAXED VWS (10-15 KTS). AFTER TAU 48, THE STEERING STR
WILL REINTENSIFY CAUSING THE TC TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN JAPAN. THE POLEWARD
PROGRESSION AND THE CHANGE IN TRAJECTORY WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN
VWS, ERODING THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. TS 08W WILL BECOME FULLY EXTRA-TROPICAL BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ARE IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR FAVORING A FLATTER
EASTWARD TRACK LEFT OF THE ENVELOPE. ADDITIONALLY, JGSM DEFLECTS
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AFTER TAU 36. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS JUST TO
THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS AND BECOMES FASTER THAN CONSENSUS AFTER TAU
48 TO OFFSET WBAR. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND
210900Z.//
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#409 Postby KWT » Wed Jul 20, 2011 3:11 pm

Well JWTC still keen on restrengthening this system, an idea they've kept up with for the last 4-5 days!
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#410 Postby Chacor » Wed Jul 20, 2011 8:20 pm

WTPQ20 RJTD 210000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1106 MA-ON (1106)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210000UTC 31.3N 139.9E POOR
MOVE SE 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 350NM EAST 250NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 220000UTC 30.9N 143.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 230000UTC 33.8N 145.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 240000UTC 39.7N 150.6E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =
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#411 Postby supercane » Wed Jul 20, 2011 10:29 pm

WTPQ30 RJTD 210000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR STS 1106 MA-ON (1106)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 210000 UTC IS GOOD.
STS WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
STS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTHEAST.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
STS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.=
Image
WTPN31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 039
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 31.2N 139.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 31.2N 139.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 30.5N 141.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 30.6N 142.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 31.5N 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 33.2N 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 37.7N 148.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 31.0N 139.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM SOUTH OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.//
NNNN
Image
WDPN31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (MA-ON)//
WARNING NR 39//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A WEAKENING, FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION. MSI ANIMATION INDICATES THAT THE
LLCC IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE, BROAD CIRCULATION THAT IS SPINNING
UP DUE TO THE INFLUX OF NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT FLOW ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF JAPAN AND STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT
RJTO, JUST SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, SHOW 20-25 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS WITH A
DEW POINT OF 18C WHILE RJTH (33N 139.8E) SHOWS NNE 25-32 KNOT
SUSTAINED WINDS. A LARGE FIELD OF COOL-AIR STRATOCUMULUS IS ALSO
EVIDENT IN IMAGERY ADVECTING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF JAPAN
AND WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTH QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. A 202348Z ASCAT
PARTIAL IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD CIRCULATION LINKED TO A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING EASTWARD ALONG 30N WITH A BROAD AREA OF 30-35
KNOT WINDS NORTH OF 34N AND SOUTH OF 31N. A 20/12Z UPPER AIR
SOUNDING FROM TATENO (36N 140E) INDICATES A FRONTAL INVERSION AND
VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE ABOVE 700MB AS CLEARLY EVIDENT IN THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON MSI
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 30-45 PLUS ASCAT DATA. THE 500MB UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED EAST OF A WEAK
NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUT IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RESULTING IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY, HOWEVER,
MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT AND FORECAST INTENSITY TREND BASED
ON THE RECENT DEPICTION OF THE LLCC IN MSI.
B. THIS COMPLEX PATTERN HAS RESULTED IN AN UNUSUAL TRACK AND
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TS 08W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN STR
POSITIONED OVER WESTERN JAPAN BUT RECENT IMAGERY (00-02Z) SHOWS THAT
THE LLCC HAS BEGUN TO SLOW AND TURN EASTWARD AS IT TRANSITIONS TO
THE EASTERN STEERING RIDGE. AFTER TAU 24, TS 08W IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN STR, WHICH
IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN, WHICH
LOOPS THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF TOKYO. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS THE
GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST WITH A WIDE DISPARITY BETWEEN
THE DYNAMIC MODELS. THE LLCC IS CLEARLY WEAKENING WITH COOL-AIR
STRATOCUMULUS WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM, THEREFORE, RE-DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS VERY SLOW OR UNLIKELY. THE CURRENT FORECAST MAINTAINS
CONSISTENCY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS WITHIN REASON AND REFLECTS A
POSSIBLE RE-INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD. THE
SYSTEM MAY ALSO DISSIPATE DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS.//
NNNN
Image
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#412 Postby phwxenthusiast » Thu Jul 21, 2011 4:10 am

i just have a quick question for you guys out there...

i was reading the latest JTWC progs and quite lengthy actually and lots of details regarding Ma-On's tropical/extra-tropical status... i'll quote a portion of their discussion:

<....>HI-RES VISUAL IMAGERY SHOWS THE LLCC IS SEPARATED SLIGHTLY
FROM THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY, AND AMSU TEMPERATURE PROFILES STILL
SHOW MID-LEVEL WARM ANOMALIES TYPICAL OF A MATURE TROPICAL SYSTEM.
500 MB HEIGHT VALUES ARE ALSO TROPICAL. FURTHERMORE, THE
SOUTHEASTWARD COURSE OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO ALLOW IT TO OPEN SOME
MORE SEPARATION FROM THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
STILL LESS THAN 20 KNOTS, NOT TYPICAL OF A SYSTEM UNDERGOING NORMAL
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, AND VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD. THE PGTW 210000Z UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TD 08W EXISTS IN A MODERATELY DIFFLUENT REGION
VERY CLOSE TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION
SHOWS THAT THE POLAR FRONT JET IS WELL EAST OF THE LLCC, DIVING DOWN
ALONG THE 150TH MERIDIAN DUE TO A BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN
SEA OF JAPAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 200MB ANALYSIS REVEAL THAT THE
NORTHWESTERLIES FLOWING OVER THE TOHOKU REGION AND TOWARDS TD 08W
ARE ACTUALLY A FINGER OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET, WHICH HAS BEEN
DISPLACED POLEWARD DUE TO THE UPSTREAM RIDGE.
ALL IN ALL THEN, TD
08W EXISTS IN AN EXTREMELY COMPLEX, ATYPICAL ENVIRONMENT AND IS
LIKEWISE SHOWING ATYPICAL BEHAVIORS.<....>

i've included this WV image from NRLMRY... did i correctly pinpoint the locations of such jets??

Image
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#413 Postby Chacor » Thu Jul 21, 2011 10:14 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 211200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1106 MA-ON (1106)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211200UTC 30.6N 142.4E FAIR
MOVE E 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 350NM EAST 250NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 221200UTC 32.7N 145.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 231200UTC 37.0N 148.3E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 241200UTC 43.0N 153.7E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
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#414 Postby supercane » Thu Jul 21, 2011 10:55 pm

Quite a range today, with JMA and KMA keeping this as a STS, CMA as a TS, and JTWC issues its last advisory as a TD:
Image
WTPQ20 RJTD 220300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1106 MA-ON (1106)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220300UTC 29.5N 143.3E FAIR
MOVE ESE 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 350NM EAST 250NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 230300UTC 32.0N 145.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 240000UTC 37.2N 148.2E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 250000UTC 42.3N 152.4E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
WTKO20 RKSL 220000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 40
NAME STS 1106 MA-ON
ANALYSIS
POSITION 220000UTC 29.5N 142.9E
MOVEMENT SE 10KT
PRES/VMAX 988HPA 49KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 230000UTC 32.8N 145.2E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 988HPA 49KT
48HR
POSITION 240000UTC 37.8N 149.6E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
72HR
POSITION 250000UTC 43.5N 153.8E WITHIN 0NM
PRES 996HPA
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.
WTPQ20 BABJ 220000
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS MA-ON 1106 (1106) INITIAL TIME 220000 UTC
00HR 28.9N 142.6E 990HPA 20M/S
30KTS 350KM
P12HR NE 20KM/H
P+24HR 32.9N 145.6E 992HPA 18M/S
P+48HR 38.6N 149.4E 992HPA 18M/S=
Image
WTPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 043
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 28.9N 142.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 28.9N 142.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 29.5N 143.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 31.0N 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 29.1N 143.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED BELOW TD
STRENGTH. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES
THAT TD 08W HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
BROAD CIRCULATION OF ABOUT 260 NM DIAMETER, HAS ELONGATED AND BECOME
POORLY DEFINED WITH STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE ARE MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS SPINNING UP WITHIN THE
BROAD CIRCULATION WHICH ARE FURTHER DISRUPTING 08W'S LLCC AND
MOTION, AND A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THE ENVIRONMENT HAS REMAINED UNFAVORABLE WITH THE LLCC POSITIONED
UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND CONTINUED MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI IMAGERY WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED LOWER THAN THE 25-35
KNOT DVORAK ESTIMATES BASED ON THE POORLY-DEFINED LLCC. THE REMNANTS
OF TD 08W WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.//
NNNN
Image
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Re: WPAC: MA-ON - Severe Tropical Storm (Ineng)

#415 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jul 22, 2011 12:33 am

i will miss you ma-on. may you rest in peace
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#416 Postby Chacor » Fri Jul 22, 2011 12:57 am

Ma-on isn't officially dead yet; JMA are still warning on it as a 50 kt severe TS.
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Re:

#417 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Jul 22, 2011 1:40 am

Chacor wrote:Ma-on isn't officially dead yet; JMA are still warning on it as a 50 kt severe TS.


Yes, so still officially a Severe TS.

But it seems odd that JTWC downgraded it to a tropical disturbance while JMA still holding it at most 50-kt TS.
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#418 Postby Chacor » Fri Jul 22, 2011 5:11 am

Fairly common; JMA usually will only stop warnings once it analyses a storm as completely non-tropical. JTWC will usually stop warnings once extratropical transition begins if no Dept of Defense installations or interests are affected.

09z still 50 kt.

WTPQ20 RJTD 220900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1106 MA-ON (1106)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220900UTC 30.2N 144.6E FAIR
MOVE ENE 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 230900UTC 33.5N 146.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 240600UTC 38.0N 148.7E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 250600UTC 42.6N 152.7E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
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Re: WPAC: MA-ON - Severe Tropical Storm (Ineng)

#419 Postby GCANE » Fri Jul 22, 2011 6:59 am

Here are the forecasted winds from Fukushima per HYSPLIT.

Also shown is accumulated rainfall from TRMM.


Image


Image
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Re: WPAC: MA-ON - Severe Tropical Storm (Ineng)

#420 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 22, 2011 6:49 pm

Does anyone knows if JMA dropped MA-ON?
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