WTPQ20 RJTD 180900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1106 MA-ON (1106)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180900UTC 29.1N 133.2E GOOD
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 140NM EAST 90NM WEST
30KT 425NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 190900UTC 33.2N 133.5E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 200600UTC 33.5N 135.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 210600UTC 33.3N 140.1E 220NM 70%
MOVE E 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =
WTPN31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 08W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 28.3N 133.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.3N 133.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 30.4N 133.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 32.0N 133.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 33.3N 134.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 33.9N 136.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 34.2N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 35.0N 147.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 28.8N 133.2E.
TYPHOON (TY) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM SOUTHWEST OF
TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD
ASYMMETRICAL CIRCULATION WITH A RELATIVELY FLAT TREND IN
ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY. THE EXTREMELY BROAD SCALE OF TY 08W
COUPLED WITH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE THAT TURNED OUT TO BE SLOW
AND INEFFICIENT HAS TAKEN A LOT OUT OF MA-ON. OUTER RAINBANDS HAVE
ALREADY PUSHED ALL THE WAY INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN, AND OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE LINES OF CONVERGENCE SPIRAL OUTWARDS ALL THE WAY
TO THE PHILIPPINE SEA, ROBBING THE CORE OF ENERGY. AN 180052Z ASCAT
AND SURFACE REPORTS VERIFY THAT GALE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARDS
OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE FOR MORE THAN 200 NM. THE ORIGINAL EYE
HAS ABSORBED INTO THE SYSTEM AND A NEW, RAGGED EYE IS EMERGING. THE
EYE IS VERY DISTINCT ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE LOW LEVEL BANDING
IS THICK ON BOTH A 180011Z SSMIS IMAGE AND AN 180444Z AMSRE IMAGE,
BUT THE HIGHER FREQUENCY IMAGES SHOW VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION IN
THE NEW EYEWALL. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS OF 85 KNOTS IS BASED
ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND 90 KNOTS
FROM KNES. RJTD IS REPORTING SIMILAR T-VALUES. WIND RADII ARE
INITIALIZED WITH A COMBINATION OF AN 180052Z ASCAT PASS AND SURFACE
REPORTS. THE ASYMMETRICAL APPEARANCE OF THE STORM IS A RESULT OF A
TONGUE OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR BEING SUCKED INTO THE WESTERN
QUADRANT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS SHOW THE INCURSION OF LESS
SATURATED AIR INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT AND BOTH MICROWAVE IMAGES
SHOW AN ABSENCE OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE SAME QUADRANT. DEW POINT
REPORTS FROM THE NORTHERN RYUKUS INDICATE THE AIR IS ONLY MODERATELY
DRIER THAN THE ENVIRONMENT, HOWEVER, AND SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPEDING ON STORM DEVELOPMENT. TY 08W IS CRESTING THE RIDGE AXIS OF
A WEAKENING AND RETREATING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TRACKING THROUGH A
REGION OF VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR INCREASED
INTENSITY. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG TRACK IS BETWEEN 5 AND 10
KNOTS AND NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ABOVE 20 KNOTS UNTIL TY 08W IS
SEAWARD OF THE CHIBA PENINSULA. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY 29 DEGREES, AND ALTHOUGH THEY WILL FALL TO 28 DEGREES
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THEY WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 29 TO 30
DEGREES NEAR THE COAST. THE PRIMARY WEAKENING FORCE ON TY 08W WILL
BE LAND INTERACTION AND BOUNDARY LAYER PROCESSES. INCREASED
CERTAINTY AS TO THE EXTENT OF LAND INTERACTION WILL COME TAU 24 AND
36 AS THE STORM CLEARS THE RIDGE AND VEERS INTO THE MID-LATITUDES.
AFTER THE STORM VEERS TO AN EASTWARD COURSE, THE LACK OF A STRONG
STEERING FORCE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SLOWER THAN TYPICAL TRACK SPEEDS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HONSHU. THE LACK OF A SHEARING FORCE AND
THE WARM SEA WATER WILL ALSO SERVE TO KEEP THE STORM AT OR NEAR
TYPHOON STRENGTH AS IT PASSES THE KANTO. BECAUSE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
IS DISPLACED SO FAR POLEWARD, EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL NOT EVEN
BEGIN UNTIL AFTER THE STORM PASSES THE CHIBA PENINSULA.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.//
NNNN
TXPQ26 KNES 180912
TCSWNP
A. 08W (MA-ON)
B. 18/0832Z
C. 29.1N
D. 133.1E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T4.0/4.5/W0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...DT=4.0 BASED ON 1.2 BANDING ON LOG10 SPIRAL. MET=3.5.
PT=4.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SCHWARTZ
