ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

[lrak]

what is that spin on the visible satellite that is moving SW?

[cycloneye]

Up to 40%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF TAMPA FLORIDA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE DECREASED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS MOST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI

[Javlin]

You beat me Luis

[Javlin]

what is that spin on the visible satellite that is moving SW?

And I thought I was seeing things?I was thinking earlier it almost looked though like it was moving in tandem w/ULL(which isn't much) but was waiting to see if it continued.

[Janie2006]

*raises eyebrow*

Hrmmmmm. Interesting little system. KMOB isn't very impressed with it thus far, but that doesn't necessarily mean anything.

[tropicwatch]

what is that spin on the visible satellite that is moving SW?

That is an upper level low that is currently inhibiting development of Invest 96.

Tropicwatch

[Brent]

That is one ugly code orange...

[HurricaneBrain]

Was NOT expecting this... I thought it would still be at 10% today.

[lrak]

what is that spin on the visible satellite that is moving SW?

That is an upper level low that is currently inhibiting development of Invest 96.

Tropicwatch

what is that spin on the visible satellite that is moving SW?

That is an upper level low that is currently inhibiting development of Invest 96.

Tropicwatch

I was speaking about the spin below the ULL.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

[cycloneye]

From the TWD at 8 PM EDT.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED IN THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
25N86W CAUSING A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE ERN GULF
AND FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO
NEAR 31N78W. THE AREA ALSO LIES UNDERNEATH AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT AROUND THE ERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 28N89W.
CURRENTLY NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER NRN FLORIDA FROM
27N-30N BETWEEN 81W-83W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 78W-86W. UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES N OR NNE. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...ENHANCED MOISTURE
AND SHOWER ACTIVITY...SOME HEAVY...IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND PANHANDLE.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[tropicwatch]

"SOME HEAVY...IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND PANHANDLE. "

Yeah!

[tropicwatch]

what is that spin on the visible satellite that is moving SW?

That is an upper level low that is currently inhibiting development of Invest 96.

Tropicwatch

what is that spin on the visible satellite that is moving SW?

That is an upper level low that is currently inhibiting development of Invest 96.

Tropicwatch

I was speaking about the spin below the ULL.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

Maybe the center of what is 96. Sorry about that

[lrak]

Dont be sorry but thanks

anyway it does look like some weird stuff is going on.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 96, 2011070800, , BEST, 0, 249N, 855W, 25, 1011, DB

[HurricaneBrain]

Looks good... Maybe code red soon. Nonetheless a big rain maker for Florida. Enjoy the rain folks.

[wxman57]

I don't see that anything has changed since this morning, organization-wise. It's a weak swirl of low clouds beneath moderate to strong shear. Convection has been decreasing all day. The only reason it's up to 40% is because one NHC forecaster tends to always go a lot higher for development chances than his co-workers. I wouldn't be surprised if that weak LLC dissipates by tomorrow. Development chances look to be very low, maybe 10-20% at the very most that it could become a quite sheared TD.

[artist]

Derek's take on it -
http://tiny.cc/czjys

7/7/2011 7:13 PM EDT Tags: dortt


A weak surface low-pressure center has formed in association with the tropical wave in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. However, the overall system is not well organized. The surface low is well to the south of most of the intense showers and thunderstorms, and is about 250 miles south of the northern Gulf Coast. The disturbance is expected to move slowly to the north or NNW during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions are not favorable for significant development and there appears to only be a slight chance of the system developing further. That said, the system will be monitored very closely. Keep checking back in case the system develops more than expected.
Regardless as to whether or not the system develops, the system is expected to bring rain to nearly all of Florida during the next couple of days. The system has already brought beneficial rainfall to the Florida Peninsula. Additional rainfall is likely in this area into tomorrow. Increased shower and thunderstorm activity is expected for the Florida Panhandle into tomorrow. Unfortunately, there may be showers and thunderstorms for the week-end. It needs to be stressed that the effects will be similar regardless as to whether or not the system develops into a tropical depression or a weak tropical storm.

[HurricaneBrain]

I don't see that anything has changed since this morning, organization-wise. It's a weak swirl of low clouds beneath moderate to strong shear. Convection has been decreasing all day. The only reason it's up to 40% is because one NHC forecaster tends to always go a lot higher for development chances than his co-workers. I wouldn't be surprised if that weak LLC dissipates by tomorrow. Development chances look to be very low, maybe 10-20% at the very most that it could become a quite sheared TD.

With all due respect Wxman, when pre-Arlene jumped to a 50% chance of developing you said the same exact thing about Stacey. Turns out Stacey was right as the next day it was already developing into a tropical depression.

Nothing has really changed in organization this afternoon. Don't agree with the 50% chance of development, but Stacey Stewart IS the most generous NHC forecaster with percentages. Surface obs do not indicate any LLC, even a broad one. Wind shear remains moderate from the WSW, as can easily be seen on all satellite loops. The only change I can see is that cloud tops have cooled over the SW Yucatan and extreme SE BoC this afternoon. But that's to be expected (over land) during the afternoon.

Not saying this will be the same scenario, but I don't think the chances have anything to do with who is forecasting.

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models

SHIP doesn't go to Tropical Storm intensity anymore.

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2334 UTC THU JUL 7 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962011) 20110708 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110708  0000   110708  1200   110709  0000   110709  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    24.9N  85.5W   26.1N  86.5W   27.2N  86.9W   28.2N  87.4W
BAMD    24.9N  85.5W   26.5N  85.5W   28.5N  85.6W   30.2N  85.2W
BAMM    24.9N  85.5W   26.2N  86.0W   27.6N  86.2W   28.8N  86.3W
LBAR    24.9N  85.5W   25.8N  85.9W   27.2N  86.2W   28.8N  86.3W
SHIP        25KTS          28KTS          31KTS          34KTS
DSHP        25KTS          28KTS          31KTS          29KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110710  0000   110711  0000   110712  0000   110713  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    29.2N  87.5W   31.0N  88.1W   31.7N  88.6W   31.7N  90.1W
BAMD    31.4N  84.8W   32.6N  84.3W   31.1N  84.7W   29.0N  87.8W
BAMM    30.0N  86.3W   31.8N  86.4W   31.7N  86.9W   30.8N  89.0W
LBAR    30.4N  86.1W   33.8N  85.5W   36.0N  84.2W   36.2N  81.0W
SHIP        37KTS          42KTS          39KTS          32KTS
DSHP        28KTS          27KTS          28KTS          21KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  24.9N LONCUR =  85.5W DIRCUR =  10DEG SPDCUR =   1KT
LATM12 =  24.4N LONM12 =  85.1W DIRM12 = 330DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
LATM24 =  23.6N LONM24 =  84.5W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   90NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  250NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[StormTracker]

"SOME HEAVY...IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND PANHANDLE. "

Yeah!

Thus far! Since 7:30 this am!