CPAC: INVEST 90C

[HURAKAN]

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invest_cp902011.invest
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201107101644
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INVEST, CP, C, , , , , 90, 2011, DB, O, 2011071100, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , CP902011
CP, 90, 2011071100, , BEST, 0, 72N, 1654W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[HURAKAN]

For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. An area of disturbed weather located about 1100 miles southwest of the main Hawaiian islands is nearly stationary. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms within this area are poorly organized and, with moderate southwest shear present, little to no development is expected. There is a low chance, near 0 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Tuesday afternoon.

[supercane]

20110711.0501.mtsat2.x.ir1km_bw.90CINVEST.15kts-NAmb-72N-1654W.100pc.jpg

[Chacor]

ACPN50 PHFO 110610
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SUN JUL 10 2011

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT FOR THE PAST 18 HOURS. HOWEVER...STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS
IN THE VICINITY OF THIS DISTURBANCE APPEAR TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 10 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.


$$

HOUSTON

[Kingarabian]

I guess our friend the shear wont let this one develop.

Question: How does shear relax? Is it random or is there something that causes high or low levels of shear?

[Chacor]

ACPN50 PHFO 111145
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST MON JUL 11 2011

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ALMOST 1100 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE DECREASED IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OVERNIGHT. ALSO...STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS DISTURBANCE APPEAR TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT.


$$

HOUSTON