ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

It will not last past today,but here it is.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al972011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201107131220
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 97, 2011, DB, O, 2011071312, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL972011
AL, 97, 2011071212, , BEST, 0, 183N, 882W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2011071218, , BEST, 0, 189N, 896W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2011071300, , BEST, 0, 193N, 918W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2011071306, , BEST, 0, 195N, 937W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2011071312, , BEST, 0, 197N, 953W, 25, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 125, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[tolakram]

Loop, once there's enough daylight.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[HURAKAN]

1st visible

[HURAKAN]

not bad, not bad!

[cycloneye]

If this were in the eastern part of the BOC,it would have developed,but it has very little time in this location.

[Blown Away]

I agree, it's got the invest look. I'm amazed how much tropical activity there has been in this small region over the past few seasons.

[MrStormX]

NHC just issued a special product:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 131312
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
915 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED FOR THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.

UPDATED...THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR DATA FROM
MEXICO SHOW THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
WHILE THERE IS LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE MOVING INLAND LATER TODAY. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI

[HURAKAN]

WHXX01 KWBC 131220
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1220 UTC WED JUL 13 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972011) 20110713 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110713 1200 110714 0000 110714 1200 110715 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.7N 95.3W 20.5N 97.1W 21.1N 98.9W 21.7N 100.6W
BAMD 19.7N 95.3W 20.1N 97.4W 20.2N 99.1W 20.0N 100.8W
BAMM 19.7N 95.3W 20.4N 97.3W 20.6N 99.0W 20.7N 100.7W
LBAR 19.7N 95.3W 20.4N 98.1W 21.0N 100.6W 21.5N 103.2W
SHIP 25KTS 36KTS 48KTS 60KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110715 1200 110716 1200 110717 1200 110718 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.2N 102.5W 22.7N 106.2W 23.5N 110.2W 24.8N 114.9W
BAMD 19.4N 102.5W 17.4N 105.7W 16.1N 108.8W 16.1N 114.0W
BAMM 20.4N 102.4W 19.3N 105.9W 18.1N 110.1W 17.5N 115.6W
LBAR 22.1N 105.7W 24.0N 110.4W 26.6N 113.4W 29.3N 116.3W
SHIP 69KTS 86KTS 93KTS 88KTS
DSHP 27KTS 34KTS 41KTS 36KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.7N LONCUR = 95.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 19.3N LONM12 = 91.8W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 18.3N LONM24 = 88.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[NDG]

Had 97L had the chance to be over water in 12 hrs, we would have had TD2.
But by my estimates, the low pressure center should be inland in 6-8 hrs at the most.
To think that I was giving it less than 5% of developing last night when vorticity was still over land, amazing how quickly it organized over water during the night.

[MrStormX]

Had 97L had the chance to be over water in 12 hrs, we would have had TD2.
But by my estimates, the low pressure center should be inland in 6-8 hrs at the most.
To think that I was giving it less than 5% of developing last night when vorticity was still over land, amazing how quickly it organized over water during the night.

Luckily, we will be able to see the landfall via radar:

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/alvarado/alvarado.php

[GCANE]

A couple factors were in its favor.

1) Daytime heating of the Yucatan landmass created a strong MCS in the afternoon; which, with the aid of the monsoon gyyre, was able to effectively get out over the water.

2) The heavy convection aided in keeping the anti-cyclone over it. This allowed the PV column to stretch vertically and spin up due to conservation of momentum.

If it wasn't for the heat wave over the south CONUS, this would be a lot more interesting track.

[CrazyC83]

It looks like a TD now, but unless 35 kt winds can be found before or shortly after landfall, IMO it would be pointless to upgrade it since TD's don't go into the final BT and there is so little time for intensification.

[Dean4Storms]

No time to develop, surface winds are all over the place. Next...

[Ivanhater]

Pressure fall is impressive

[Kingarabian]

Possible player in the EPAC?

[dwsqos2]

How could this become a player in the EPAC? I don't even think that this is possible

It looks worse than it did earlier, and pressures have risen slightly at the near-shore observing stations near Veracruz(some of that is probably diurnal, but still not exactly a good sign for genesis).

[Kingarabian]

How could this become a player in the EPAC? I don't even think that this is possible

It looks worse than it did earlier, and pressures have risen slightly at the near-shore observing stations near Veracruz(some of that is probably diurnal, but still not exactly a good sign for genesis).

There were many instances when systems in the Atlantic or GOM that couldn't get it together until they crossed into the EPAC.

[dwsqos2]

Yes, many have but look at the location of the disturbance and extropolate a pretty much due westward motion for several days. That should pretty much tell you its future.

[cycloneye]

Is almost reaching the coast.