ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

How could this become a player in the EPAC? I don't even think that this is possible

It looks worse than it did earlier, and pressures have risen slightly at the near-shore observing stations near Veracruz(some of that is probably diurnal, but still not exactly a good sign for genesis).

There were many instances when systems in the Atlantic or GOM that couldn't get it together until they crossed into the EPAC.

Very unlikely because the area is very mountainous and the water at this latitude in the EPAC is very cold.

[Kingarabian]

How could this become a player in the EPAC? I don't even think that this is possible

It looks worse than it did earlier, and pressures have risen slightly at the near-shore observing stations near Veracruz(some of that is probably diurnal, but still not exactly a good sign for genesis).

There were many instances when systems in the Atlantic or GOM that couldn't get it together until they crossed into the EPAC.

Very unlikely because the area is very mountainous and the water at this latitude in the EPAC is very cold.

Yeah I forgot that the southern part of mexico is very mountainous. Also forgot were not in a El Nino phase. Just bored outta my mind.

[HURAKAN]

moving inland, didn't have enough time

[cycloneye]

And there it goes.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE COAST
VERY NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS INLAND...IT NOW HAS
A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF EASTERN
MEXICO AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN

[Hurricanehink]

It reminds me of the invest last year in July or August that was at 10%, got shot up to 60% in a STWO as it neared the Louisiana coast, then went back down to 10% after it moved inland.

[CrazyC83]

Any sign of 35 kt sustained winds anywhere?

[Ivanhater]

This was organizing right up to landfall....I'd bet it was a TD at the very least

[MississippiWx]

This was organizing right up to landfall....I'd bet it was a TD at the very least

My bet is that it will be upgraded to at least a TD post-season, if they even do that for TD's. It had the look of a minimal TS, though.

[CrazyC83]

This was organizing right up to landfall....I'd bet it was a TD at the very least

My bet is that it will be upgraded to at least a TD post-season, if they even do that for TD's. It had the look of a minimal TS, though.

They don't reanalyze and upgrade depressions since those do not go into HURDAT. That is why finding TS winds is key.

[Sanibel]

I had the same reaction as Tailgater yesterday with one look at the animated visible loop.

Not enough time over water. There's another juicy monsoon trough feature cooking-up in its wake in the Caribbean. That's where I'd be lookin.

Edit: Caribbean stuff is too far west and south.

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared ... still kicking but should die soon over the mountains

[Blown Away]

97L was on its way, upper level conditions always seem prime in this area. Fortunately proximity to land likely keeps many systems in the southern BOC from becoming monsters.

[Ptarmigan]

It would of been interesting if Invest 97L went more northwestward. I think it would developed quickly into Bret.

[StormTracker]

So was this 1 of the 2 systems that the GFS has been hinting at or was this an isolated system that just popped up?

[KWT]

Almost certainly would have been TD2 if it had even just 6hrs longer over water, it was clearly on a quick strengthening trend...

[South Texas Storms]

It would of been interesting if Invest 97L went more northwestward. I think it would developed quickly into Bret.

Possibly kinda like Bret in 1999?

[Hurricaneman]

This one started developing too late, it would have become something if it developed 12 hrs earlier

[plasticup]

Any sign of 35 kt sustained winds anywhere?

I'm looking, but nothing yet. My best guess is that the center (such as it was) made landfall near Tuxpan, Veracruz. I am checking there and at nearby stations.

[cycloneye]

So was this 1 of the 2 systems that the GFS has been hinting at or was this an isolated system that just popped up?

Yes,this was part of the whole mess that the GFS had as part of the monsoon trough combined with a tropical wave. But that monsoon trough remains in the SW Caribbean and Central America and it may cause another area that may develop and that is why there is a SW Caribbean thread at Talking Tropics forum.

[CrazyC83]

Any sign of 35 kt sustained winds anywhere?

I'm looking, but nothing yet. My best guess is that the center (such as it was) made landfall near Tuxpan, Veracruz. I am checking there and at nearby stations.

So at the most it was a tropical depression - no need to go back to reanalysis for that.