EPAC: DORA - Remnants

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

Going down.

EP, 04, 2011072118, , BEST, 0, 174N, 1071W, 130, 932, HU

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[somethingfunny]

Dora's holding her own. Convection isn't as deep but that could just be diurnal. The beautiful round eye, which had become misshapen and was filling in a bit earlier, is back:

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Watch for Southern Baja California

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DORA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
200 PM PDT THU JUL 21 2011

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 107.4W
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.52 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA TO BUENAVISTA INCLUDING
CABO SAN LUCAS.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM AGUA BLANCA TO BUENAVISTA INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DORA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.4 WEST. DORA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...240
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DORA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS LIKELY
TONIGHT...WITH A MORE RAPID DECREASE IN WINDS FORECAST ON FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES...240 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 932 MB...27.52 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATCH AREA
BY LATE TOMORROW.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY DORA WILL AFFECT THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SWELLS WILL
BEGIN AFFECTING THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA LATER TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN

TCDEP4

HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
200 PM PDT THU JUL 21 2011

WHILE THE EYE OF DORA REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR...CONVECTION IN THE
EYEWALL HAS WEAKENED SOME DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A BLEND
OF THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES GIVES A LOWER INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 130
KT. THE HURRICANE HAS LIKELY PEAKED AS IT IS CROSSING INTO SLIGHTLY
COOLER WATERS AND THE OUTFLOW PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR IS AFFECTING THE OUTER PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
STRENGTH TONIGHT...AND A RAPID DECLINE BY LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO AN INCREASE IN NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR AND SSTS
DROPPING BELOW 26C. THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS SYSTEM
IS LIKELY TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 3 DAYS DUE TO IT PASSING
OVER WATERS NEAR 21C.

DORA HAS SLOWED DOWN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND IS MOVING
310/8. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS
THE STORM IS STEERED BY A RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THERE IS SOME
DIVERGENCE OF THE MODELS AFTER THAT TIME WITH SOME OF THE
MODELS...SUCH AS THE GFS...CONTINUING THE NORTHWESTWARD COURSE
WHILE OTHERS...LIKE THE ECMWF...SHOW A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. A CROSS-SECTION OF THE GFS VERSUS THE ECMWF
INDICATES THE LATTER MODEL HAS A DEEPER VORTEX THAT WOULD RESPOND
MORE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP NEAR DORA IN A DAY OR SO. THE NHC TRACK WILL STAY ON THE
LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN DEFERENCE TO THE ECMWF
MODEL...AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA DUE TO THE FORECAST PROXIMITY OF THE 34 KT WIND RADII
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF THE NHC FORECAST SHIFTING A BIT CLOSER TO
BAJA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 17.7N 107.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 18.5N 108.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 19.5N 109.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 20.3N 110.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 21.2N 112.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 23.0N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 25/1800Z 24.8N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 26/1800Z 26.5N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[plasticup]

The waters aren't that much cooler yet. She has a few more hours to make a run at Cat 5. Although the odds are against it, she has beaten that dry slot and smoothed out her eyewall.

[KWT]

Yep looks like its starting to weaken just a touch, still a cyhance that Dmax will prop it up slightly tomorrow am but that remains to be seen.

[plasticup]

The northwest quadrant just collapsed. I don't see her recovering from this before the sea surface temperature plummets.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Eye feature disappearing, clearly a sign that Dora is weakening. Probably will be down to a low-end Category 4 by the next update.

[plasticup]

If it continues at this pace it will barely be Cat 3 by the next update. I'd say she is already leaving Cat 4 territory.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

Going down fast.

EP, 04, 2011072200, , BEST, 0, 180N, 1078W, 115, 948, HU

[Brent]

Don't look like a Cat 4...

[brunota2003]

The raw T#s have it at 4.8 right now.

[CrazyC83]

It's all downhill from here. Should continue to rapidly degrade.

[brunota2003]

Raw T# is 3.8 now.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
800 PM PDT THU JUL 21 2011

A FEW HOURS AGO...THE EYE OF DORA ABRUPTLY DISAPPEARED ON
GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES AND DEEP CONVECTION BECAME MUCH LESS
SYMMETRIC ABOUT THE CENTER. THIS INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING
OF THE HURRICANE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS
ARE 5.5 AND 6.5 RESPECTIVELY FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. USING A BLEND
OF THESE NUMBERS GIVES A RATHER UNCERTAIN WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF
110 KT. THE HURRICANE IS BEGINNING TO CROSS THE SST GRADIENT AND
IS HEADING FOR COOLER WATERS...ALTHOUGH IT IS CURRENTLY OVER WATERS
OF ABOUT 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. SOME OF THE WEAKENING IS LIKELY DUE
TO STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE. AN EVEN MORE RAPID
WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO COMMENCE AS SOON AS DORA TRAVERSES MUCH
COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE LATEST STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL...LGEM...GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION...315/8...IS ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE
EARLIER ESTIMATES. DORA IS BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THIS REGIME IS LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS RATHER SMALL SHIFT IN THE NHC
TRACK NOW TAKES DORA NEAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA TO BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO THAT AREA.
CONSEQUENTLY..THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 18.3N 108.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 19.0N 109.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 20.0N 110.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 21.1N 111.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 22.0N 112.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 24.0N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/0000Z 26.0N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 27/0000Z 27.0N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Cyclenall]

Dora's holding her own. Convection isn't as deep but that could just be diurnal. The beautiful round eye, which had become misshapen and was filling in a bit earlier, is back:

Yes the round eye came back but Dora played a prank on us by cruelly weakening it's convection in exchange and therefore snatching away another category 5 hurricane yet again...thanks a lot Dora .

Raw T# is 2.9 now . Maybe it will reach 1 in a couple more hours. It's appearance looks like its own head was chopped off and barely at Category 2 intensity in my estimation since the winds wind down slower.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 18.3N 108.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 19.0N 109.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 20.0N 110.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 21.1N 111.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 22.0N 112.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 24.0N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/0000Z 26.0N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 27/0000Z 27.0N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

I'm starting to have doubts that Dora will even have a LLC at 12 hours let alone still be at major hurricane status.

[Hurricane Jed]

Almost had a Category 5 in the Eastern Pacific for the third season in a row didn't we?

[Brent]

Will there be anything left in 12 hours?

[Chacor]

Spinning itself down and out...

[Cyclenall]

Will there be anything left in 12 hours?

I'd go 50-50 on that one.

Raw T# is 2.2 now, getting closer to that special number .

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 22 2011

STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR CONTINUES TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON HURRICANE DORA
THIS MORNING. WHAT WAS ONCE...JUST A FEW HOURS AGO...A WARM EYE
SURROUNDED BY QUITE COLD CLOUD TOPS IS NOW A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL VORTEX WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION TO BE FOUND ONLY IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. RAW DATA-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND ADT
HAVE ALL PLUMMETED. ASSUMING THAT IT TAKES SOME LAG TIME FOR THE
WINDS TO WEAKEN AS MUCH AS THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE...THE INTENSITY
IS ANALYZED AT 90 KT...20 KT WEAKER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

WHILE THE STRONG NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT DAY...DORA WILL BE ENCOUNTERING AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH COLD SSTS AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITHIN ABOUT TWO DAYS...THE CYCLONE WILL
BE TRAVERSING OVER 23C WATER AND MOVING THROUGH AN ATMOSPHERE THAT
WILL LIKELY NOT ALLOW DEEP CONVECTION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE LGEM-SHIPS STATISTICAL INTENSITY MODELS...BUT
SUBSTANTIALLY BELOW THAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BECAUSE OF THE
CONTINUED RAPID WEAKENING.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 8 KT ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE. THIS SAME FEATURE SHOULD
CONTINUE STEERING DORA NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED UNTIL
DISSIPATION. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS NEARLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

IN ADDITION TO THE WEAKENING...AMSU AND ASCAT SATELLITE PASSES
INDICATE THAT DORA EXHIBITS A SUBSTANTIALLY SMALLER 34-KT WIND
RADII THAN PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED. THIS SUGGESTS A DIMINISHED RISK OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS SHOWN IN
THE REDUCED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 18.9N 108.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 19.5N 109.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 20.5N 110.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 21.4N 111.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 22.5N 113.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 24.5N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/0600Z 26.0N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 27/0600Z 27.0N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART