EPAC: DORA - Remnants

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep942011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201107161729
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 94, 2011, DB, O, 2011071618, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP942011
EP, 94, 2011071512, , BEST, 0, 98N, 825W, 15, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 94, 2011071518, , BEST, 0, 98N, 831W, 15, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 94, 2011071600, , BEST, 0, 98N, 836W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 94, 2011071606, , BEST, 0, 99N, 841W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 94, 2011071612, , BEST, 0, 100N, 846W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 94, 2011071618, , BEST, 0, 101N, 851W, 20, 1009, LO, 34

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KMIA 161732
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1732 UTC SAT JUL 16 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP942011) 20110716 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110716  1800   110717  0600   110717  1800   110718  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    10.1N  85.1W   10.2N  86.1W   10.3N  87.9W   10.5N  89.9W
BAMD    10.1N  85.1W   10.0N  86.6W    9.8N  88.4W    9.6N  90.0W
BAMM    10.1N  85.1W   10.0N  86.7W    9.8N  88.7W    9.4N  90.6W
LBAR    10.1N  85.1W   10.3N  86.8W   10.7N  89.2W   11.4N  92.4W
SHIP        20KTS          25KTS          32KTS          37KTS
DSHP        20KTS          27KTS          33KTS          39KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110718  1800   110719  1800   110720  1800   110721  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.1N  92.0W   13.1N  96.9W   16.0N 101.5W   19.5N 105.4W
BAMD     9.8N  91.6W   11.6N  94.9W   14.7N  98.2W   18.1N 100.5W
BAMM     9.6N  92.4W   11.9N  96.3W   16.0N 100.5W   20.1N 103.9W
LBAR    12.1N  95.7W   14.5N 103.1W   17.2N 108.5W   17.4N 107.2W
SHIP        38KTS          42KTS          39KTS          38KTS
DSHP        40KTS          43KTS          41KTS          30KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  10.1N LONCUR =  85.1W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =   5KT
LATM12 =   9.9N LONM12 =  84.1W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
LATM24 =   9.8N LONM24 =  83.1W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT JUL 16 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO JUST EAST OF PUERTO ANGEL IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND ADJACENT
LAND AREAS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD OCCUR OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS. ONLY SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO DUE TO LAND INTERACTION...BUT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR AFTER THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
AMERICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
LARGE DISTURBANCE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[HURAKAN]

could be a threat to Mexico

[cycloneye]

Definitly a threat to somewhere in the Mexican coast or Baja California. 12z GFS has a pretty strong cyclone.

[cycloneye]

[KWT]

Interesting, the SHIPS are pretty weak, whilst the global mdoels are pretty aggressive with their forecasts.

[cycloneye]

From EPAC discussion at 22:05 UTC:

A WELL ORGANIZED MID LEVEL LOW IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH COSTA
RICA AND INTO THE PACIFIC AT THE MOMENT. IT IS REFLECTING A 1008
MB LOW AT THE SURFACE NEAR 10N85W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE LIES
OVER THIS LOW BETWEEN 30 TO 50 KT NE WINDS ALOFT S OF 09N AND
LIGHTER NE WINDS ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING THE LARGE AREA OF DENSE
CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS DESCRIBED IN
THE SECTION ABOVE. THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS
ADVECTING THE DEBRIS MOISTURE S TOWARD THE EQUATOR TO THE E OF
110W. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...WITH LOCALIZED TRAINING DEEP
CONVECTION...IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK WESTWARD ALONG 10N OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEEPEN.

[Yellow Evan]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I do think that 94E will develop. I do think the storm will threaten western Mexico and Baja California but will not make landfall. Intensity should be around 65 knts IMO.

[cycloneye]

Remains at 20%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT JUL 16 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

First run of HWRF has a landfall near Puerto Angel as a minimal hurricane.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Rgv20]

To early to forecast a track but if I would have to guess I would go with the 12zEuro, 12zGFS Ensembles, and 18zGFS track consensus. This track would be sufficient enough away from the MX coastline for not to feel enough serious effects on this potential TC.

18zGFS forecast 162hrs (Saturday July 23)




12zECMWF at 168hrs




12zGFS Ensembles at 168hrs



Still the Western Mx coast needs to keep a close eye on this.

[cycloneye]

First run of GFDL is scary as it shows landfall near the popular resort city of Acapulco as a cat 2.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

The folks on the Mexican coast have to watch the progress of this system as the models in general have close tracks and landfalls like HWRF and GFDL.

00:00z Tropical Models

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WHXX01 KMIA 170037
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0037 UTC SUN JUL 17 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP942011) 20110717 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110717  0000   110717  1200   110718  0000   110718  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    10.1N  85.9W   10.2N  87.0W   10.4N  88.7W   10.6N  90.7W
BAMD    10.1N  85.9W   10.0N  87.6W    9.7N  89.3W    9.4N  90.9W
BAMM    10.1N  85.9W   10.3N  87.5W   10.3N  89.4W   10.4N  91.3W
LBAR    10.1N  85.9W   10.2N  87.8W   10.8N  90.5W   11.4N  93.8W
SHIP        20KTS          28KTS          36KTS          44KTS
DSHP        20KTS          28KTS          36KTS          44KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110719  0000   110720  0000   110721  0000   110722  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.4N  92.9W   13.8N  98.1W   17.6N 103.1W   21.1N 106.3W
BAMD     9.7N  92.5W   11.6N  95.6W   14.7N  98.7W   17.5N 100.2W
BAMM    11.1N  93.4W   13.9N  98.1W   17.5N 103.0W   20.9N 106.6W
LBAR    12.2N  97.1W   14.4N 104.6W   15.1N 108.5W   16.5N 111.0W
SHIP        46KTS          48KTS          40KTS          40KTS
DSHP        46KTS          48KTS          40KTS          40KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  10.1N LONCUR =  85.9W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =   6KT
LATM12 =  10.0N LONM12 =  84.6W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 =   6KT
LATM24 =   9.8N LONM24 =  83.6W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[Macrocane]

Heavy rains and thunderstorms have developed tonight in parts of Central America, the IR images show very strong convection in the area especially over El Salvador, I will post some observations tomorrow:

[cycloneye]

EPAC discussion at 4:05 UTC. Macrocane,what you said about the heavy rain at El Salvador is mentioned,and it looks like it will stay that way for a few days,so keep us informed. I hope that also,our friend in Guatemala alanstover comes and also post reports from there.


A WELL ORGANIZED MID LEVEL LOW IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS WAY OFF
THE COSTA RICAN COAST AND INTO THE PACIFIC. IT IS REFLECTING A
1009 MB LOW AT THE SURFACE NEAR 10N86W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
LIES OVER THIS LOW BETWEEN 30 TO 50 KT NE WINDS ALOFT S OF 09N
AND LIGHTER NE WINDS ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SPEED DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING THE LARGE
AREA OF DENSE CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS
DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
FOUND OVER THE GULF OF FONSECA AND INLAND OVER EL SALVADOR AND
WESTERN HONDURAS JUST W OF THE MID LEVEL LOW. THE UPPER LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS ADVECTING THE DEBRIS MOISTURE S OF THE
EQUATOR TO THE E OF 105W. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...WITH LOCALIZED
TRAINING DEEP CONVECTION...IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS MAY RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG 10N OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEEPEN.

[KWT]

Models sure look interesting for Mexico, I personally think the models will adjust westwards a little but still will probably be a close call...

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN JUL 17 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF COSTA RICA IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS. SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

12z Tropical Models

SHIP peaks at 58kts.

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925
WHXX01 KMIA 171210
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1210 UTC SUN JUL 17 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP942011) 20110717 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110717  1200   110718  0000   110718  1200   110719  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     9.9N  86.7W    9.9N  88.3W   10.1N  90.3W   10.9N  92.5W
BAMD     9.9N  86.7W    9.9N  88.5W   10.0N  90.2W   10.6N  91.9W
BAMM     9.9N  86.7W    9.9N  88.7W    9.9N  90.8W   10.5N  93.1W
LBAR     9.9N  86.7W   10.0N  88.6W   10.8N  91.2W   11.8N  94.1W
SHIP        20KTS          26KTS          33KTS          43KTS
DSHP        20KTS          26KTS          33KTS          43KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110719  1200   110720  1200   110721  1200   110722  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.9N  94.8W   14.8N  99.6W   18.6N 102.6W   22.1N 105.0W
BAMD    11.6N  93.7W   14.5N  97.4W   18.2N 100.0W   20.5N 101.0W
BAMM    11.6N  95.5W   14.9N 100.3W   18.7N 103.6W   21.3N 105.8W
LBAR    13.2N  97.2W   16.6N 103.4W   19.7N 107.4W   19.8N 107.1W
SHIP        50KTS          58KTS          56KTS          51KTS
DSHP        50KTS          58KTS          46KTS          33KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =   9.9N LONCUR =  86.7W DIRCUR = 260DEG SPDCUR =   5KT
LATM12 =  10.1N LONM12 =  85.7W DIRM12 = 264DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
LATM24 =  10.0N LONM24 =  84.6W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[cycloneye]

40%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN JUL 17 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTH OF
EL SALVADOR IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART