EPAC: DORA - Remnants
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Wow thats an amazing speed of weakening, amazing how it went from a near 5 to what looks like barely a hurricane anymore on at least on the IR...similar speed of weakening as Lili/Opal in 2002 I think!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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P.K.
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Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane
WTPZ34 KNHC 221143
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DORA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
500 AM PDT FRI JUL 22 2011
...DORA NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 109.2W
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM AGUA BLANCA TO BUENAVISTA INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.2 WEST. DORA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK
DORA IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DORA IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND DORA COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM BY TONIGHT.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY DORA WILL AFFECT THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DORA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
500 AM PDT FRI JUL 22 2011
...DORA NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 109.2W
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM AGUA BLANCA TO BUENAVISTA INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.2 WEST. DORA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK
DORA IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DORA IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND DORA COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM BY TONIGHT.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY DORA WILL AFFECT THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139087
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane
HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 22 2011
DORA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. WHILE CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR THE
CENTER...THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH ALMOST
OF THE CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77-82 KT FROM SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUES...THOUGH THE DATA T-NUMBERS ARE QUITE A
BIT LOWER. THE WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO CONDUCT A RESEARCH MISSION
INTO DORA LATER TODAY TO OBTAIN A BETTER WIND ESTIMATE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW THAT UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE
CONTINUING TO CAUSE SHEAR ON DORA. ALTHOUGH GLOBAL MODELS DO
WEAKEN THIS FLOW SOMEWHAT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...DORA WILL BE
MOVING OVER COOLER SSTS AND PROBABLY WILL NOT GET A CHANCE TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF THE DECREASED SHEAR. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST WILL
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL
MODELS...CALLING FOR STEADY WEAKENING...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. DORA WILL BE OVER SSTS NEAR 21C IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...
LIKELY CAUSING ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO DISAPPEAR AND FOR THE
SYSTEM TO TRANSITION INTO A REMNANT LOW BY THAT TIME.
THE CYCLONE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 8 KT ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE. WHILE THERE IS AN
OCCASIONAL MODEL OUTLIER TAKING DORA CLOSER TO BAJA...THE MAJORITY
OF THE GUIDANCE SHOW A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
SEVERALS. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
ALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FOR SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA IS DECREASING...IT IS PRUDENT TO LEAVE THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING UP FOR NOW UNTIL WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT OF THESE WINDS
STAYING OFFSHORE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/1500Z 19.3N 109.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 20.0N 110.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 21.0N 111.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 22.0N 112.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 23.1N 113.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/1200Z 25.0N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/1200Z 26.5N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 22 2011
DORA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. WHILE CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR THE
CENTER...THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH ALMOST
OF THE CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77-82 KT FROM SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUES...THOUGH THE DATA T-NUMBERS ARE QUITE A
BIT LOWER. THE WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO CONDUCT A RESEARCH MISSION
INTO DORA LATER TODAY TO OBTAIN A BETTER WIND ESTIMATE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW THAT UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE
CONTINUING TO CAUSE SHEAR ON DORA. ALTHOUGH GLOBAL MODELS DO
WEAKEN THIS FLOW SOMEWHAT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...DORA WILL BE
MOVING OVER COOLER SSTS AND PROBABLY WILL NOT GET A CHANCE TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF THE DECREASED SHEAR. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST WILL
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL
MODELS...CALLING FOR STEADY WEAKENING...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. DORA WILL BE OVER SSTS NEAR 21C IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...
LIKELY CAUSING ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO DISAPPEAR AND FOR THE
SYSTEM TO TRANSITION INTO A REMNANT LOW BY THAT TIME.
THE CYCLONE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 8 KT ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE. WHILE THERE IS AN
OCCASIONAL MODEL OUTLIER TAKING DORA CLOSER TO BAJA...THE MAJORITY
OF THE GUIDANCE SHOW A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
SEVERALS. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
ALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FOR SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA IS DECREASING...IT IS PRUDENT TO LEAVE THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING UP FOR NOW UNTIL WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT OF THESE WINDS
STAYING OFFSHORE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/1500Z 19.3N 109.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 20.0N 110.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 21.0N 111.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 22.0N 112.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 23.1N 113.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/1200Z 25.0N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/1200Z 26.5N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Doubt it'll be a hurricane for too much longer, still got some fairly deep convection nearby but its been walloped by shear!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139087
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane
HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 22 2011
THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OF DORA HAS DEGRADED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION...JUST TO THE NORTH OF A MID-LEVEL ROTATION NOTED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. THE INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 70 KT...IN
ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KT
FROM TAFB/SAB. A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT JUST PASSED THROUGH
THE CENTER OF DORA A FEW MINUTES AGO...AND WILL BE IN THE STORM FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. THEY HAVE NOT COMPLETED ENOUGH OF THE PATTERN
TO ESTABLISH WHETHER DORA IS STILL A HURRICANE.
THE SYSTEM IS CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM INTO MUCH COOLER WATERS.
WITH SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND A MORE STABLE AIR MASS
EXPECTED...A CONTINUED WEAKENING OF DORA IS FORECAST. DORA SHOULD
WEAKEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT TWELVE HOURS...AND
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMORROW. REMNANT LOW STATUS IS
LIKELY IN 36 TO 48 HOURS OVER THE COLD WATERS WEST OF BAJA.
AN UNCERTAIN ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 310/7. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL TRACK AND SPEED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. THEREAFTER...SOME OF THE MODELS WANT TO BEND DORA...OR OR ITS
REMNANTS...TOWARD BAJA DUE TO A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE...WHILE OTHERS BASICALLY CONTINUE THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.
THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE HAD AN EXCELLENT PERFORMANCE FOR THIS
STORM...AND SINCE THESE MODELS KEEP DORA AWAY FROM THE
COAST...THE NEW NHC FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/2100Z 19.8N 109.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 20.5N 110.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 21.4N 112.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 22.4N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 23.5N 114.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/1800Z 25.5N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/1800Z 27.0N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 22 2011
THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OF DORA HAS DEGRADED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION...JUST TO THE NORTH OF A MID-LEVEL ROTATION NOTED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. THE INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 70 KT...IN
ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KT
FROM TAFB/SAB. A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT JUST PASSED THROUGH
THE CENTER OF DORA A FEW MINUTES AGO...AND WILL BE IN THE STORM FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. THEY HAVE NOT COMPLETED ENOUGH OF THE PATTERN
TO ESTABLISH WHETHER DORA IS STILL A HURRICANE.
THE SYSTEM IS CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM INTO MUCH COOLER WATERS.
WITH SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND A MORE STABLE AIR MASS
EXPECTED...A CONTINUED WEAKENING OF DORA IS FORECAST. DORA SHOULD
WEAKEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT TWELVE HOURS...AND
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMORROW. REMNANT LOW STATUS IS
LIKELY IN 36 TO 48 HOURS OVER THE COLD WATERS WEST OF BAJA.
AN UNCERTAIN ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 310/7. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL TRACK AND SPEED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. THEREAFTER...SOME OF THE MODELS WANT TO BEND DORA...OR OR ITS
REMNANTS...TOWARD BAJA DUE TO A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE...WHILE OTHERS BASICALLY CONTINUE THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.
THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE HAD AN EXCELLENT PERFORMANCE FOR THIS
STORM...AND SINCE THESE MODELS KEEP DORA AWAY FROM THE
COAST...THE NEW NHC FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/2100Z 19.8N 109.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 20.5N 110.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 21.4N 112.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 22.4N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 23.5N 114.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/1800Z 25.5N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/1800Z 27.0N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
URPN12 KWBC 222046
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP042011
A. 22/2031Z
B. 19 DEG 49 MIN N
109 DEG 48 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1355 M
D. 55 KT
E. 353 DEG 18 NM
F. 100 DEG 69 KT
G. 358 DEG 29 NM
H. 988 MB
I. 18 C/1447 M
J. 20 C/1633 M
K. 18 C/25 C
L. POORLY DEFINED
M. NA
N. 1345/8
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 0104E DORA OB 12
MAX FL WIND 55KT N QUAD 2027Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP042011
A. 22/2031Z
B. 19 DEG 49 MIN N
109 DEG 48 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1355 M
D. 55 KT
E. 353 DEG 18 NM
F. 100 DEG 69 KT
G. 358 DEG 29 NM
H. 988 MB
I. 18 C/1447 M
J. 20 C/1633 M
K. 18 C/25 C
L. POORLY DEFINED
M. NA
N. 1345/8
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 0104E DORA OB 12
MAX FL WIND 55KT N QUAD 2027Z
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
URPN12 KWBC 222210
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP042011
A. 22/2201Z
B. 19 DEG 56 MIN N
110 DEG 0 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1337 M
D. 50 KT
E. 105 DEG 27 NM
F. 182 DEG 63 KT
G. 104 DEG 25 NM
H. 989 MB
I. 18 C/1458 M
J. 20 C/1593 M
K. 18 C/25 C
L. POORLY DEFINED
M. NA
N. 1345/8
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 0104E DORA OB 22
MAX FL WINDS 69KT N QUAD 2027Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP042011
A. 22/2201Z
B. 19 DEG 56 MIN N
110 DEG 0 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1337 M
D. 50 KT
E. 105 DEG 27 NM
F. 182 DEG 63 KT
G. 104 DEG 25 NM
H. 989 MB
I. 18 C/1458 M
J. 20 C/1593 M
K. 18 C/25 C
L. POORLY DEFINED
M. NA
N. 1345/8
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 0104E DORA OB 22
MAX FL WINDS 69KT N QUAD 2027Z
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139087
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: DORA - Tropical Storm
Downgraded to Tropical Storm
TROPICAL STORM DORA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
500 PM PDT FRI JUL 22 2011
...NOAA AIRCRAFT FINDS DORA HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 110.2W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM AGUA BLANCA TO BUENAVISTA INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.2 WEST. DORA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON
THIS TRACK...DORA WOULD BE MOVING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST
OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND DORA WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BY SUNDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165
KM...FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY DORA WILL AFFECT THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
TROPICAL STORM DORA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
500 PM PDT FRI JUL 22 2011
...NOAA AIRCRAFT FINDS DORA HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 110.2W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM AGUA BLANCA TO BUENAVISTA INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.2 WEST. DORA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON
THIS TRACK...DORA WOULD BE MOVING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST
OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND DORA WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BY SUNDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165
KM...FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY DORA WILL AFFECT THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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cycloneye
- Admin
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Re: EPAC: DORA - Tropical Storm
TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 22 2011
A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING DORA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
FOUND THAT THE CYCLONE WAS NO LONGER A HURRICANE...WITH PEAK 850 MB
WINDS OF 69 KT AND PEAK SFMR WINDS OF 56 KT. BASED ON THESE
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KT...WHICH ALSO
MATCHES AN AVERAGE OF THE CI INTENSITIES FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE
AIRCRAFT DATA WERE ALSO VERY USEFUL IN DETERMINING THE EXTENT OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AS DORA
MOVES OVER ROUGHLY 26C WATERS...AND A COMBINATION OF NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR AND A TRACK OVER COOLER WATERS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE
WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED TODAY. IN ANOTHER 36 HOURS OR SO DORA
SHOULD BE A REMNANT LOW OVER 22C WATERS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/7...ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE. THERE HAS
BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...WHICH IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER MAINLAND MEXICO...AS WELL AS
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE CYCLONE...WILL WORK TO
PREVENT DORA FROM APPROACHING THE BAJA PENINSULA AS LONG AS THE
STORM MAINTAINS DEEP CONVECTION AND A VERTICALLY COHERENT
CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...SINCE THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY PROGGED TO PASS WITHIN 60 MILES OF THE WARNING AREA...IT
SEEMS PRUDENT TO LEAVE THE WARNING IN PLACE FOR NOW.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0300Z 20.4N 110.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 21.1N 111.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 22.1N 112.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 23.2N 113.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/0000Z 24.5N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/0000Z 26.0N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/0000Z 27.0N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 22 2011
A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING DORA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
FOUND THAT THE CYCLONE WAS NO LONGER A HURRICANE...WITH PEAK 850 MB
WINDS OF 69 KT AND PEAK SFMR WINDS OF 56 KT. BASED ON THESE
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KT...WHICH ALSO
MATCHES AN AVERAGE OF THE CI INTENSITIES FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE
AIRCRAFT DATA WERE ALSO VERY USEFUL IN DETERMINING THE EXTENT OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AS DORA
MOVES OVER ROUGHLY 26C WATERS...AND A COMBINATION OF NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR AND A TRACK OVER COOLER WATERS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE
WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED TODAY. IN ANOTHER 36 HOURS OR SO DORA
SHOULD BE A REMNANT LOW OVER 22C WATERS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/7...ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE. THERE HAS
BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...WHICH IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER MAINLAND MEXICO...AS WELL AS
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE CYCLONE...WILL WORK TO
PREVENT DORA FROM APPROACHING THE BAJA PENINSULA AS LONG AS THE
STORM MAINTAINS DEEP CONVECTION AND A VERTICALLY COHERENT
CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...SINCE THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY PROGGED TO PASS WITHIN 60 MILES OF THE WARNING AREA...IT
SEEMS PRUDENT TO LEAVE THE WARNING IN PLACE FOR NOW.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0300Z 20.4N 110.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 21.1N 111.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 22.1N 112.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 23.2N 113.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/0000Z 24.5N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/0000Z 26.0N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/0000Z 27.0N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Brent
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Re: EPAC: DORA - Tropical Storm
Not much left on satellite this morning
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DORA ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 23 2011
...DORA RAPIDLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND PARALLEL
TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 111.2W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM AGUA BLANCA TO BUENAVISTA INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.2 WEST. DORA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...DORA WOULD BE MOVING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND DORA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY
OR EARLY SUNDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...IF DORA MOVES AS FORECAST...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARNING AREA. HOWEVER...
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE WARNING AREA TODAY IF
DORA MOVES TO THE RIGHT OF THE EXPECTED TRACK.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY DORA WILL AFFECT THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DORA ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 23 2011
...DORA RAPIDLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND PARALLEL
TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 111.2W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM AGUA BLANCA TO BUENAVISTA INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.2 WEST. DORA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...DORA WOULD BE MOVING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND DORA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY
OR EARLY SUNDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...IF DORA MOVES AS FORECAST...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARNING AREA. HOWEVER...
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE WARNING AREA TODAY IF
DORA MOVES TO THE RIGHT OF THE EXPECTED TRACK.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY DORA WILL AFFECT THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139087
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: DORA - Tropical Storm
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DORA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
500 AM PDT SAT JUL 23 2011
...DORA CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR
BAJA CALIFORNIA...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 111.5W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
NONE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST. DORA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...DORA WOULD BE MOVING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND DORA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY
OR EARLY SUNDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY OFFSHORE OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY DORA WILL AFFECT THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
TROPICAL STORM DORA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
500 AM PDT SAT JUL 23 2011
...DORA CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR
BAJA CALIFORNIA...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 111.5W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
NONE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST. DORA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...DORA WOULD BE MOVING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND DORA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY
OR EARLY SUNDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY OFFSHORE OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY DORA WILL AFFECT THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139087
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: DORA - Tropical Storm
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DORA ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 23 2011
...DORA WEAKENING OVER THE COLDER WATER SOUTHWEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 111.9W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST. DORA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...DORA SHOULD MOVE NEARLY PARALLEL AND WELL OFFSHORE
OF THE WEST COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND DORA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
LATER TODAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY DORA WILL AFFECT THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
TROPICAL STORM DORA ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 23 2011
...DORA WEAKENING OVER THE COLDER WATER SOUTHWEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 111.9W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST. DORA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...DORA SHOULD MOVE NEARLY PARALLEL AND WELL OFFSHORE
OF THE WEST COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND DORA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
LATER TODAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY DORA WILL AFFECT THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricanehink
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139087
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: DORA - Tropical Storm
TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 23 2011
A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING DORA HAS REPORTED
850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 51 KT AND 44 KT ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS
FROM THE SFMR. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1001 MB. BASED ON
THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT. THE CYCLONE IS
STILL PRODUCING CONVECTION...MOST NOTABLY IN A NARROW BAND TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 305/8. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO
SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS AGAIN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT...
ESPECIALLY FROM 48-96 HR WHEN IT APPEARS THE REMNANT TROUGH COULD
COME CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS AGAIN A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
THROUGH 48 HR AND A LITTLE TO THE EAST THEREAFTER. THE NEW
FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS.
DORA IS EXPERIENCING 10-15 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...AND LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF
THE LIFE OF THE CYCLONE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK DECREASE TO 19C BY 72 HR...AND THUS DORA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HR. THE
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE REMNANT CIRCULATION WEAKENING TO
A TROUGH IN 72-96 HR...SO THE FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION AT
THAT TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/2100Z 21.7N 112.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 22.4N 113.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 23.5N 114.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 25/0600Z 24.6N 115.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/1800Z 25.4N 116.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/1800Z 27.0N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 23 2011
A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING DORA HAS REPORTED
850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 51 KT AND 44 KT ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS
FROM THE SFMR. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1001 MB. BASED ON
THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT. THE CYCLONE IS
STILL PRODUCING CONVECTION...MOST NOTABLY IN A NARROW BAND TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 305/8. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO
SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS AGAIN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT...
ESPECIALLY FROM 48-96 HR WHEN IT APPEARS THE REMNANT TROUGH COULD
COME CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS AGAIN A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
THROUGH 48 HR AND A LITTLE TO THE EAST THEREAFTER. THE NEW
FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS.
DORA IS EXPERIENCING 10-15 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...AND LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF
THE LIFE OF THE CYCLONE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK DECREASE TO 19C BY 72 HR...AND THUS DORA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HR. THE
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE REMNANT CIRCULATION WEAKENING TO
A TROUGH IN 72-96 HR...SO THE FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION AT
THAT TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/2100Z 21.7N 112.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 22.4N 113.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 23.5N 114.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 25/0600Z 24.6N 115.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/1800Z 25.4N 116.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/1800Z 27.0N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: DORA - Tropical Storm
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DORA ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 23 2011
...DORA LOSING ORGANIZATION OVER COLD PACIFIC WATERS...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 113.4W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM W OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.4 WEST. DORA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A NORTHWESTWARD
TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DORA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION AND THEN TO
DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH DORA WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
TROPICAL STORM DORA ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 23 2011
...DORA LOSING ORGANIZATION OVER COLD PACIFIC WATERS...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 113.4W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM W OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.4 WEST. DORA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A NORTHWESTWARD
TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DORA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION AND THEN TO
DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH DORA WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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