ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

12Z

AL, 02, 2011072012, , BEST, 0, 314N, 741W, 45, 1001, TS

No change

[Frank2]

The TWO is deceiving (per Bret and 99L) - the IR shows the Atlantic to be pretty quiet out there this morning:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

[xironman]

Looks like it is crawling NNE now.

[HURAKAN]

URNT15 KNHC 201805
AF307 0702A BRET HDOB 23 20110720
175600 3216N 07339W 8430 01558 0081 +175 +143 035016 016 /// /// 03
175630 3215N 07337W 8430 01557 0080 +175 +144 035017 018 /// /// 03
175700 3214N 07335W 8430 01558 0080 +176 +144 038018 018 /// /// 03
175730 3213N 07334W 8429 01559 0079 +179 +142 045018 018 /// /// 03
175800 3212N 07332W 8436 01551 0075 +180 +141 043018 018 /// /// 03
175830 3211N 07331W 8428 01560 0079 +176 +145 042017 017 /// /// 03
175900 3210N 07329W 8430 01555 0077 +174 +144 051015 016 /// /// 03
175930 3209N 07328W 8429 01558 0082 +168 +154 061016 018 /// /// 03
180000 3207N 07327W 8429 01557 0081 +170 +152 066016 016 /// /// 03
180030 3206N 07326W 8428 01560 0080 +173 +146 081013 015 /// /// 03
180100 3204N 07326W 8434 01552 0080 +175 +140 097013 013 /// /// 03
180130 3203N 07325W 8429 01558 0077 +178 +138 094012 013 /// /// 03
180200 3201N 07325W 8425 01559 0074 +181 +137 083013 013 /// /// 03
180230 3159N 07325W 8430 01553 0071 +185 +137 073013 014 /// /// 03
180300 3158N 07325W 8430 01554 0068 +190 +134 076014 014 /// /// 03
180330 3156N 07325W 8429 01552 0065 +190 +133 084016 017 /// /// 03
180400 3154N 07324W 8429 01552 0062 +190 +139 088014 016 /// /// 03
180430 3153N 07324W 8433 01547 0063 +188 +161 090009 012 /// /// 03
180500 3151N 07324W 8429 01548 0062 +180 //// 122010 011 /// /// 05
180530 3150N 07323W 8433 01544 0060 +182 +181 124011 011 /// /// 03

[drezee]

Pressure is up to around 1005mb per recon

[vbhoutex]

The TWO is deceiving (per Bret and 99L) - the IR shows the Atlantic to be pretty quiet out there this morning:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

That is a matter of perception Frank. You only show the IR and you show nothing past 50W to the East where there is more activity. I'm not sure what you consider active, but three systems in the ATL basin at one time seems active to me. And yes I know one of those isn't invested or named.

[HURAKAN]

Pressure is up to around 1005mb per recon

with 12 knots, so 1004 mb

[HURAKAN]

URNT15 KNHC 201815
AF307 0702A BRET HDOB 24 20110720
180600 3148N 07323W 8428 01548 0059 +182 //// 141012 013 /// /// 05
180630 3147N 07322W 8431 01542 0054 +189 +178 148012 012 /// /// 03
180700 3145N 07322W 8426 01546 0052 +188 +178 152012 012 /// /// 03
180730 3143N 07322W 8433 01538 0050 +187 +183 167012 013 /// /// 03
180800 3142N 07321W 8425 01548 0054 +183 //// 178013 014 /// /// 05
180830 3140N 07321W 8433 01541 0057 +183 //// 189014 015 /// /// 05
180900 3139N 07320W 8429 01546 0055 +184 +173 202017 018 /// /// 03
180930 3137N 07320W 8429 01543 0056 +181 //// 216021 022 /// /// 05
181000 3136N 07318W 8432 01543 0059 +181 //// 219024 027 /// /// 05
181030 3135N 07317W 8431 01546 0060 +183 +154 219028 029 /// /// 03
181100 3134N 07316W 8430 01548 0065 +177 //// 220032 033 /// /// 05
181130 3133N 07314W 8426 01554 0066 +180 +171 228032 033 /// /// 03
181200 3132N 07313W 8432 01551 0069 +180 +159 224033 033 /// /// 03
181230 3131N 07311W 8428 01554 0070 +179 +173 223033 034 /// /// 03
181300 3130N 07310W 8429 01555 0074 +175 //// 223036 037 /// /// 05
181330 3128N 07309W 8436 01549 0076 +173 //// 221036 037 /// /// 05
181400 3127N 07307W 8428 01559 0077 +173 //// 224039 040 /// /// 05
181430 3126N 07306W 8429 01558 0080 +169 //// 226041 042 /// /// 05
181500 3125N 07304W 8429 01561 //// +153 //// 216040 041 /// /// 05
181530 3124N 07303W 8427 01560 0094 +153 //// 210038 039 /// /// 05

lowest 1005 mb and 12 knts, so 1004 mb

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

URNT15 KNHC 201825
AF307 0702A BRET HDOB 25 20110720
181600 3123N 07302W 8428 01564 0094 +155 //// 207035 036 /// /// 05
181630 3122N 07300W 8428 01564 0098 +154 //// 214037 038 /// /// 05
181700 3121N 07259W 8431 01563 0095 +160 //// 213038 038 /// /// 05
181730 3120N 07258W 8429 01566 0094 +164 +162 214039 040 /// /// 03
181800 3119N 07256W 8428 01569 0097 +162 //// 216039 039 /// /// 05
181830 3118N 07255W 8427 01571 0098 +164 +159 218038 038 /// /// 03
181900 3117N 07254W 8432 01569 0103 +160 +153 218039 041 /// /// 03
181930 3116N 07252W 8430 01572 0107 +159 +146 218042 043 /// /// 03
182000 3115N 07251W 8431 01572 0106 +164 +133 215043 044 /// /// 03
182030 3114N 07250W 8426 01578 0109 +161 +133 218044 044 /// /// 03
182100 3113N 07248W 8428 01576 0109 +161 +131 222044 045 /// /// 03
182130 3111N 07247W 8429 01576 0112 +157 +135 225043 044 /// /// 03
182200 3110N 07246W 8433 01574 0112 +160 +133 224044 044 /// /// 03
182230 3109N 07244W 8428 01580 0111 +163 +135 225044 044 /// /// 03
182300 3108N 07243W 8428 01581 0114 +162 +141 226042 042 /// /// 03
182330 3107N 07242W 8434 01576 0118 +156 +149 227040 040 /// /// 03
182400 3106N 07240W 8432 01580 0120 +155 +150 227039 039 /// /// 03
182430 3105N 07239W 8428 01585 0121 +155 +142 233040 041 /// /// 03
182500 3104N 07237W 8433 01578 0125 +146 //// 230038 041 /// /// 05
182530 3103N 07236W 8429 01586 0134 +135 //// 216038 041 /// /// 05

[HURAKAN]

URNT12 KNHC 201842
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022011
A. 20/18:07:40Z
B. 31 deg 43 min N
073 deg 21 min W
C. 850 mb 1470 m
D. 20 kt
E. 347 deg 24 nm
F. 033 deg 18 kt
G. 335 deg 33 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb
I. 17 C / 1522 m
J. 19 C / 1527 m
K. 18 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 8 nm
P. AF307 0702A BRET OB 06
MAX FL WIND 18 KT NW QUAD 17:56:50Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 45 KT SE QUAD 18:21:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
MAX FL TEMP 19 C 345 / 10 NM FROM FL CNTR

[HURAKAN]

AL, 02, 2011072018, , BEST, 0, 316N, 735W, 40, 1005, TS

45 mph

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

URNT15 KNHC 201845
AF307 0702A BRET HDOB 27 20110720
183600 3108N 07219W 8430 01589 0128 +159 +120 207041 041 /// /// 03
183630 3110N 07219W 8430 01589 0127 +163 +116 208040 041 /// /// 03
183700 3112N 07219W 8429 01591 0124 +164 +122 211039 040 /// /// 03
183730 3113N 07219W 8430 01588 0124 +163 +127 214038 039 /// /// 03
183800 3115N 07219W 8425 01592 0124 +163 +134 213038 039 /// /// 03
183830 3117N 07219W 8432 01585 0122 +164 +134 210037 038 /// /// 03
183900 3119N 07219W 8428 01589 0122 +165 +126 208036 037 /// /// 03
183930 3121N 07219W 8432 01583 0121 +164 +132 212035 036 /// /// 03
184000 3123N 07219W 8429 01587 0120 +163 +133 215032 033 /// /// 03
184030 3125N 07219W 8418 01600 0124 +162 +135 212034 036 /// /// 03
184100 3127N 07219W 8422 01600 0132 +157 +137 207037 039 /// /// 03
184130 3129N 07218W 8428 01598 0134 +162 +126 204037 039 /// /// 03
184200 3132N 07218W 8429 01597 0132 +166 +117 201038 038 /// /// 03
184230 3134N 07218W 8428 01596 0129 +166 +121 200039 039 /// /// 03
184300 3137N 07218W 8430 01592 0127 +168 +129 197038 039 /// /// 03
184330 3139N 07218W 8431 01592 0126 +170 +128 197040 041 /// /// 03
184400 3142N 07218W 8430 01594 0128 +165 +137 196041 042 /// /// 03
184430 3145N 07218W 8426 01597 0128 +168 +126 195043 043 /// /// 03
184500 3147N 07218W 8434 01588 0127 +168 +135 194041 042 /// /// 03
184530 3150N 07218W 8427 01596 0125 +170 +132 191040 040 /// /// 03

[HURAKAN]

URNT15 KNHC 201855
AF307 0702A BRET HDOB 28 20110720
184600 3153N 07218W 8431 01591 0125 +170 +130 189038 040 /// /// 03
184630 3155N 07218W 8432 01591 0126 +168 +130 188036 036 /// /// 03
184700 3158N 07218W 8426 01598 0128 +165 +134 185035 035 /// /// 03
184730 3200N 07217W 8429 01593 0127 +166 +145 184034 035 /// /// 03
184800 3203N 07217W 8432 01591 0126 +165 +153 182034 034 /// /// 03
184830 3206N 07217W 8431 01592 0128 +163 +155 181036 037 /// /// 03
184900 3208N 07217W 8428 01593 0128 +160 +155 181037 037 /// /// 03
184930 3211N 07217W 8441 01583 0132 +158 //// 182035 038 /// /// 05
185000 3213N 07217W 8436 01583 0123 +162 //// 179031 032 /// /// 05
185030 3215N 07217W 8437 01574 0113 +165 +161 175030 031 /// /// 03
185100 3217N 07217W 8432 01577 0111 +164 +162 173032 032 /// /// 03
185130 3219N 07217W 8433 01576 0105 +172 +154 169028 030 /// /// 03
185200 3221N 07217W 8425 01582 0107 +168 +157 171029 031 /// /// 03
185230 3223N 07217W 8432 01577 0109 +165 +160 173032 033 /// /// 03
185300 3225N 07217W 8429 01579 0109 +167 +155 171031 033 /// /// 03
185330 3227N 07217W 8417 01597 0114 +170 +139 166027 027 /// /// 03
185400 3229N 07217W 8422 01596 0120 +168 +141 164030 032 /// /// 03
185430 3231N 07217W 8426 01596 0125 +167 +141 164031 032 /// /// 03
185500 3234N 07217W 8432 01588 0124 +166 +141 160026 028 /// /// 03
185530 3235N 07219W 8433 01586 0121 +165 +143 153021 022 /// /// 03

[HURAKAN]

URNT15 KNHC 201835
AF307 0702A BRET HDOB 26 20110720
182600 3102N 07235W 8438 01575 0127 +149 +140 212043 044 /// /// 03
182630 3101N 07234W 8424 01591 0134 +140 +135 215041 041 /// /// 03
182700 3059N 07232W 8429 01587 0128 +153 +124 218040 040 /// /// 03
182730 3058N 07231W 8433 01583 0126 +160 +115 217040 041 /// /// 03
182800 3057N 07230W 8429 01588 0128 +156 +124 219040 040 /// /// 03
182830 3056N 07228W 8425 01597 0129 +158 +126 218039 040 /// /// 03
182900 3055N 07227W 8430 01591 0129 +162 +119 218038 038 /// /// 03
182930 3054N 07226W 8430 01593 0129 +163 +117 220038 039 /// /// 03
183000 3053N 07224W 8425 01598 0132 +160 +117 220037 038 /// /// 03
183030 3052N 07223W 8430 01594 0134 +161 +113 220038 038 /// /// 03
183100 3051N 07221W 8429 01594 0130 +165 +109 221037 038 /// /// 03
183130 3051N 07220W 8427 01598 0131 +165 +108 218037 037 /// /// 03
183200 3053N 07219W 8428 01597 0132 +165 +109 217036 036 /// /// 03
183230 3054N 07219W 8429 01593 0132 +161 +113 214036 036 /// /// 03
183300 3056N 07219W 8432 01591 0133 +160 +116 210036 036 /// /// 03
183330 3058N 07219W 8425 01597 0131 +161 +115 212037 037 /// /// 03
183400 3100N 07219W 8432 01589 0132 +158 +118 210038 038 /// /// 03
183430 3102N 07219W 8429 01592 0132 +157 +119 207039 039 /// /// 03
183500 3104N 07219W 8434 01585 0128 +159 +119 208039 039 /// /// 03
183530 3106N 07219W 8429 01591 0129 +160 +115 208039 039 /// /// 03

[drezee]

Pressure is up to around 1005mb per recon

with 12 knots, so 1004 mb

URNT12 KNHC 201842
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022011
A. 20/18:07:40Z
B. 31 deg 43 min N
073 deg 21 min W
C. 850 mb 1470 m
D. 20 kt
E. 347 deg 24 nm
F. 033 deg 18 kt
G. 335 deg 33 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb

Took it at face value...

[HURAKAN]

URNT15 KNHC 201905
AF307 0702A BRET HDOB 29 20110720
185600 3234N 07221W 8424 01597 0120 +169 +144 156019 019 /// /// 03
185630 3232N 07223W 8432 01587 0115 +176 +139 157019 021 /// /// 03
185700 3231N 07225W 8428 01590 0112 +179 +141 153020 021 /// /// 03
185730 3229N 07227W 8429 01587 0111 +180 +135 150018 018 /// /// 03
185800 3228N 07229W 8433 01582 0110 +179 +135 150018 019 /// /// 03
185830 3226N 07231W 8428 01586 0111 +177 +141 150020 020 /// /// 03
185900 3225N 07233W 8430 01585 0115 +168 +156 166021 021 /// /// 03
185930 3223N 07235W 8430 01584 0111 +173 +150 163020 021 /// /// 03
190000 3222N 07236W 8431 01584 0112 +172 +152 167022 023 /// /// 03
190030 3220N 07238W 8429 01585 0108 +177 +146 166022 023 /// /// 03
190100 3218N 07240W 8429 01582 0106 +179 +146 163023 024 /// /// 03
190130 3217N 07242W 8430 01581 0106 +179 +148 159020 021 /// /// 03
190200 3215N 07244W 8433 01579 0105 +179 +147 157017 019 /// /// 03
190230 3214N 07246W 8430 01580 0107 +173 +159 166017 018 /// /// 03
190300 3212N 07248W 8428 01580 0107 +170 +162 164018 019 /// /// 03
190330 3211N 07250W 8433 01573 0102 +174 +162 158019 020 /// /// 03
190400 3210N 07252W 8442 01560 0092 +183 +158 157017 019 /// /// 03
190430 3209N 07254W 8440 01557 0082 +187 +157 151014 014 /// /// 03
190500 3208N 07256W 8433 01558 0079 +181 +166 155016 020 /// /// 03
190530 3208N 07257W 8429 01562 0086 +166 //// 168021 021 /// /// 05

[HURAKAN]

URNT15 KNHC 201915
AF307 0702A BRET HDOB 30 20110720
190600 3207N 07259W 8433 01554 //// +156 //// 169021 022 /// /// 05
190630 3207N 07301W 8429 01557 0077 +174 //// 158014 015 /// /// 05
190700 3207N 07303W 8433 01553 0072 +182 +175 141011 012 /// /// 03
190730 3206N 07304W 8431 01557 0071 +185 +173 130009 009 /// /// 03
190800 3205N 07306W 8429 01557 0069 +185 +173 146010 011 /// /// 03
190830 3204N 07307W 8428 01557 0067 +187 +167 142011 011 /// /// 03
190900 3203N 07309W 8432 01552 0065 +190 +163 127010 010 /// /// 03
190930 3202N 07310W 8430 01552 0065 +189 +158 121010 010 /// /// 03
191000 3200N 07311W 8430 01551 0064 +189 +158 112009 009 /// /// 03
191030 3159N 07312W 8430 01549 0061 +192 +155 123010 010 /// /// 03
191100 3157N 07313W 8430 01548 0059 +193 +159 126009 009 /// /// 03
191130 3156N 07314W 8429 01548 0056 +194 +172 109007 008 /// /// 03
191200 3154N 07315W 8430 01547 0054 +194 +174 096007 007 /// /// 03
191230 3153N 07315W 8432 01544 0054 +192 +178 090006 007 /// /// 03
191300 3151N 07315W 8433 01542 0053 +190 +178 104007 008 /// /// 03
191330 3150N 07315W 8429 01544 0052 +191 +175 125006 007 /// /// 03
191400 3148N 07316W 8430 01544 0051 +191 +185 145006 007 /// /// 03
191430 3147N 07317W 8430 01541 0051 +188 +186 139004 005 /// /// 03
191500 3146N 07319W 8429 01542 0050 +189 +178 098004 005 /// /// 03
191530 3145N 07320W 8429 01541 0048 +190 +179 054005 005 /// /// 03

[HURAKAN]