ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[KWT]

Still little area of deeper convection but its certainly a good bit weaker than it was last night atits peak, I suspect the peak was 60kts after recon left.

[cycloneye]

Here is Bret when it peaked yesterday around 5 PM EDT.

[HURAKAN]

as impressive it was yesterday in the afternoon is how unimpressive it's this morning

[Florida1118]

I think the track of Bret remaining as a TC is going to get alot shorter this Adv

[cycloneye]

11 AM EDT


TROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011
1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN RATHER MEAGER IN ASSOCIATION WITH BRET THIS
MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...BUT RECENTLY THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN
ON THE WANE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER OF THE STORM IS EXPOSED NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SMALL
DENSE OVERCAST. THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALTHOUGH THIS IS PROBABLY A
GENEROUS ESTIMATE. BRET IS BEING IMPACTED BY STRONG NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR AND IS ENTRAINING RATHER DRY MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN HOSTILE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND DISSIPATION AFTER 72 HOURS...IF
NOT SOONER. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE.

INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 030/7. VERY LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO
THE TRACK FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. BRET SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND BEGIN TO
INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES LATER ON. THE FORECAST
SHOWS A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS...ASSUMING BRET SURVIVES THAT LONG.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 29.9N 75.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 30.6N 75.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 31.6N 73.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 32.9N 72.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 34.3N 70.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 37.5N 66.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[HURAKAN]

becoming exposed

[wxman57]

Yep, the end is near. The favorable conditions yesterday afternoon just didn't last long enough for Bret to become the first hurricane of the season. My eyes are on the eastern Atlantic now.

[RL3AO]

Yep, the end is near. The favorable conditions yesterday afternoon just didn't last long enough for Bret to become the first hurricane of the season. My eyes are on the eastern Atlantic now.

Do you like the look of the wave at 35W? I sure do.

[HURAKAN]

URNT15 KNHC 191712
AF308 0502A BRET HDOB 18 20110719
170200 3053N 07701W 7772 02289 //// +123 //// 036014 015 022 000 01
170230 3054N 07700W 7822 02222 //// +121 //// 051016 016 021 000 01
170300 3054N 07658W 7839 02208 0137 +118 +068 044015 016 021 000 00
170330 3055N 07657W 7958 02087 0145 +126 +074 055014 014 021 000 00
170400 3056N 07655W 8201 01837 0147 +142 +081 065014 015 021 000 00
170430 3057N 07654W 8377 01651 0140 +152 +088 061014 015 023 000 00
170500 3058N 07652W 8431 01584 0130 +154 +097 059015 016 022 000 00
170530 3059N 07651W 8431 01583 0130 +150 +104 060016 016 022 000 00
170600 3100N 07650W 8432 01583 0128 +151 +110 056014 014 020 000 00
170630 3101N 07648W 8433 01581 0129 +153 +115 062014 015 018 000 00
170700 3102N 07647W 8426 01596 0139 +151 +119 061014 015 017 000 00
170730 3103N 07645W 8433 01593 0140 +153 +123 065014 014 018 000 00
170800 3104N 07644W 8438 01588 0141 +152 +126 064014 014 015 001 03
170830 3103N 07642W 8428 01595 0138 +151 +129 061013 014 017 000 03
170900 3102N 07641W 8430 01592 0137 +152 +132 057012 013 020 000 00
170930 3100N 07639W 8433 01589 0133 +156 +134 055014 015 020 000 00
171000 3059N 07638W 8429 01594 0134 +155 +137 055014 015 019 000 00
171030 3058N 07637W 8431 01589 0131 +156 +139 054015 015 018 000 00
171100 3057N 07635W 8430 01592 0130 +157 +141 057015 016 019 000 00
171130 3056N 07634W 8425 01599 0127 +160 +142 055017 018 020 000 00

Can't do the GE Maps

[WxEnthus]

I can post GE images intermittently.

[sicktght311]

Complete n00b here, but the most recent (last hour or two) satellite images show a pretty defined eye. Doesnt that indicate rapid strengthening?

[RL3AO]

Complete n00b here, but the most recent (last hour or two) satellite images show a pretty defined eye. Doesnt that indicate rapid strengthening?

All the thunderstorms have died. What you're now seeing is whats called a naked circulation. Is just cirrus (?) clouds rotating around the center.

[sicktght311]

Complete n00b here, but the most recent (last hour or two) satellite images show a pretty defined eye. Doesnt that indicate rapid strengthening?

All the thunderstorms have died. What you're now seeing is whats called a naked circulation. Is just cirrus (?) clouds rotating around the center.

Got it!

[WxEnthus]

[HURAKAN]

URNT12 KNHC 191750
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022011
A. 19/17:33:00Z
B. 30 deg 03 min N
075 deg 47 min W
C. 850 mb 1440 m
D. 34 kt
E. 342 deg 11 nm
F. 075 deg 29 kt
G. 334 deg 22 nm
H. 1002 mb
I. 17 C / 1520 m
J. 19 C / 1518 m
K. 19 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0502A BRET OB 07
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 52 KT SE QUAD 17:42:40Z
MAX FL TEMP 20 C 342 / 11 NM FROM FL CNTR

[HURAKAN]

URNT15 KNHC 191722
AF308 0502A BRET HDOB 19 20110719
171200 3055N 07633W 8425 01595 0125 +161 +145 046018 018 020 000 00
171230 3054N 07631W 8433 01586 0126 +160 +146 043018 018 020 000 00
171300 3053N 07630W 8429 01590 0128 +154 +148 054019 019 020 000 00
171330 3051N 07629W 8425 01593 0127 +154 +150 055019 019 020 000 00
171400 3050N 07627W 8425 01593 0124 +157 +151 050018 019 023 000 00
171430 3049N 07626W 8426 01590 0132 +144 //// 043020 023 028 009 01
171500 3048N 07625W 8436 01574 0128 +147 //// 066021 025 030 008 01
171530 3047N 07623W 8423 01592 0120 +161 +148 058021 022 025 001 00
171600 3046N 07622W 8428 01586 0118 +160 +148 052023 024 024 001 00
171630 3045N 07621W 8431 01584 0122 +155 +150 053022 023 023 001 00
171700 3044N 07620W 8425 01585 0119 +157 +152 066022 023 021 000 00
171730 3042N 07618W 8429 01582 0117 +159 +153 059021 022 023 000 00
171800 3041N 07617W 8430 01580 0116 +160 +155 057020 021 024 000 00
171830 3040N 07616W 8430 01581 0115 +159 +157 057020 021 025 000 00
171900 3039N 07614W 8427 01581 0115 +157 //// 051021 023 030 005 01
171930 3038N 07613W 8430 01575 0121 +146 //// 054022 023 031 005 01
172000 3037N 07612W 8428 01580 0113 +153 //// 064023 024 028 002 01
172030 3036N 07610W 8431 01573 0106 +162 +153 062026 027 025 000 00
172100 3035N 07609W 8429 01573 0105 +160 +152 061027 027 024 000 00
172130 3033N 07608W 8431 01571 0102 +163 +155 059026 027 025 001 00

[HURAKAN]

URNT15 KNHC 191732
AF308 0502A BRET HDOB 20 20110719
172200 3032N 07606W 8433 01566 0103 +160 +157 066024 025 026 000 00
172230 3031N 07605W 8429 01570 0099 +161 +159 064024 024 027 000 00
172300 3030N 07604W 8428 01566 0093 +166 +160 063024 025 027 000 00
172330 3029N 07603W 8434 01562 0091 +166 +162 067025 026 028 000 00
172400 3028N 07601W 8429 01561 0086 +171 +164 074023 025 027 000 00
172430 3027N 07600W 8428 01564 0086 +169 +167 078024 025 028 001 00
172500 3026N 07559W 8430 01561 0082 +170 +169 079025 026 030 000 03
172530 3024N 07558W 8428 01560 0080 +170 //// 077028 029 030 000 01
172600 3023N 07557W 8430 01553 0078 +166 //// 072027 029 033 003 01
172630 3022N 07556W 8431 01551 0074 +170 //// 069025 025 032 000 01
172700 3020N 07555W 8428 01550 0069 +172 //// 067027 028 032 000 05
172730 3019N 07554W 8429 01545 0062 +178 +175 072027 027 031 001 00
172800 3018N 07553W 8429 01542 0057 +176 //// 075028 028 031 000 01
172830 3016N 07552W 8429 01540 0049 +184 +180 073029 029 033 001 00
172900 3015N 07551W 8430 01531 0040 +190 +181 073026 027 035 000 00
172930 3014N 07550W 8428 01529 0033 +193 +185 078024 025 034 001 00
173000 3012N 07550W 8426 01527 0028 +189 +188 084019 022 024 000 03
173030 3011N 07549W 8432 01518 0025 +190 //// 084015 016 021 000 01
173100 3009N 07548W 8429 01517 0020 +190 //// 087014 015 017 000 01
173130 3007N 07548W 8436 01510 0017 +192 //// 092012 014 015 000 05

[HURAKAN]

URNT15 KNHC 191742
AF308 0502A BRET HDOB 21 20110719
173200 3006N 07548W 8430 01515 0016 +190 //// 106006 008 013 000 01
173230 3004N 07547W 8426 01516 0019 +185 //// 162003 004 014 000 01
173300 3003N 07547W 8428 01516 0019 +182 //// 202002 004 014 000 01
173330 3001N 07546W 8430 01510 0021 +180 //// 233006 008 012 000 05
173400 3000N 07545W 8432 01505 0017 +180 //// 231014 016 018 000 01
173430 2959N 07544W 8425 01515 //// +176 //// 224019 021 024 001 01
173500 2958N 07542W 8433 01509 //// +175 //// 227025 028 028 002 01
173530 2956N 07541W 8434 01512 //// +173 //// 231030 031 029 000 01
173600 2955N 07540W 8426 01526 0037 +174 //// 231033 034 034 002 01
173630 2954N 07538W 8428 01529 0043 +171 //// 233036 038 038 005 01
173700 2953N 07537W 8431 01530 0052 +163 //// 233041 044 050 009 01
173730 2952N 07535W 8429 01536 //// +149 //// 235045 046 055 013 01
173800 2951N 07534W 8437 01536 //// +145 //// 226047 050 055 018 01
173830 2950N 07533W 8429 01542 //// +135 //// 227047 050 057 020 01
173900 2948N 07531W 8425 01553 0079 +155 //// 226051 051 056 014 01
173930 2947N 07530W 8429 01556 0091 +149 //// 227048 050 051 010 01
174000 2946N 07529W 8434 01553 0102 +141 //// 222050 052 046 013 01
174030 2945N 07527W 8428 01563 0108 +133 //// 214049 049 045 012 01
174100 2944N 07526W 8427 01567 0104 +143 //// 214048 048 043 010 01
174130 2943N 07525W 8432 01566 0103 +152 +147 221048 049 043 005 00

SFMR likely wrong

[HURAKAN]

URNT15 KNHC 191752
AF308 0502A BRET HDOB 22 20110719
174200 2942N 07524W 8427 01571 0105 +153 +145 222047 048 041 004 00
174230 2941N 07522W 8429 01571 0105 +157 +144 222050 052 040 002 00
174300 2940N 07521W 8428 01575 0108 +157 +144 221051 052 040 001 00
174330 2939N 07520W 8423 01583 0110 +157 +144 219049 051 040 000 00
174400 2937N 07518W 8423 01588 0117 +155 +146 218049 050 035 000 00
174430 2936N 07517W 8428 01585 0122 +153 +149 218049 049 035 000 00
174500 2935N 07515W 8426 01589 0123 +157 +153 217048 048 035 002 00
174530 2933N 07514W 8435 01582 0124 +157 //// 218047 048 034 000 01
174600 2932N 07512W 8430 01585 0128 +154 //// 220045 045 035 000 01
174630 2931N 07511W 8432 01586 0129 +155 //// 219044 044 035 000 01
174700 2929N 07509W 8429 01592 0129 +157 //// 221044 044 035 000 05
174730 2928N 07508W 8432 01591 0135 +155 //// 222043 044 033 000 01
174800 2927N 07506W 8426 01597 0134 +155 //// 222044 044 032 000 01
174830 2925N 07504W 8435 01591 0134 +156 //// 220044 044 030 000 01
174900 2924N 07503W 8429 01597 0135 +155 //// 221043 043 030 000 01
174930 2923N 07501W 8430 01599 //// +155 //// 222042 042 029 000 01
175000 2922N 07500W 8429 01598 0136 +158 //// 222041 041 029 000 01
175030 2920N 07458W 8433 01595 0137 +159 //// 221041 042 029 000 01
175100 2919N 07457W 8430 01599 0137 +158 //// 222040 040 027 000 01
175130 2917N 07455W 8425 01608 //// +157 //// 224040 040 028 000 01

[HURAKAN]

URNT15 KNHC 191803
AF308 0502A BRET HDOB 23 20110719
175200 2916N 07453W 8433 01599 //// +159 //// 222039 040 027 000 01
175230 2915N 07452W 8425 01608 //// +160 //// 223039 039 026 000 01
175300 2913N 07450W 8434 01598 0137 +163 //// 224038 038 026 000 01
175330 2912N 07449W 8426 01609 0135 +169 //// 225039 039 024 000 01
175400 2911N 07447W 8428 01608 //// +170 //// 226039 039 024 000 01
175430 2909N 07445W 8436 01600 //// +173 //// 226038 038 024 000 01
175500 2908N 07444W 8426 01610 //// +170 //// 227038 038 024 000 05
175530 2907N 07442W 8425 01616 //// +170 //// 224038 039 /// /// 05
175600 2908N 07440W 8429 01613 //// +168 //// 219036 038 /// /// 05
175630 2911N 07440W 8436 01598 //// +170 //// 216035 035 024 000 05
175700 2913N 07440W 8429 01606 //// +170 //// 216035 035 025 000 01
175730 2915N 07440W 8429 01605 //// +170 //// 214036 036 026 000 01
175800 2917N 07440W 8429 01605 //// +170 //// 214037 037 026 000 01
175830 2919N 07440W 8429 01603 //// +170 //// 212037 038 027 000 01
175900 2922N 07440W 8433 01598 //// +166 //// 211038 038 027 001 01
175930 2924N 07440W 8425 01605 //// +167 //// 211038 038 026 002 01
180000 2926N 07440W 8433 01599 //// +163 //// 209038 039 028 000 01
180030 2928N 07440W 8430 01600 //// +162 //// 208039 039 027 001 01
180100 2931N 07440W 8428 01602 //// +163 //// 207039 039 028 000 01
180130 2933N 07440W 8433 01598 //// +165 //// 207039 039 028 000 01