WPAC: NOCK-TEN (Juaning) - Tropical Depression

[KWT]

big blow up of convection overland isn't it, so going to be some big rainfall totals with this one!

[euro6208]

tropical storm nock-ten now aiming for poor vietnam



WTPN31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (NOCK-TEN) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 19.3N 108.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 108.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 19.1N 106.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 18.7N 104.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 18.7N 102.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 010 KT, GUSTS 020 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 107.5E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
300000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND
310300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W (MUIFA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (NOCK-TEN)//
WARNING NR 22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KNOCK-TEN HAS MAINTAINED VIGOROUS
CONVECTION DESPITE THE EFFECTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR, WHICH IS ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS, IS STEMMING
FROM THE SEASONAL ANTICYCLONE OVER EASTERN CHINA. THE SHEAR IS
DISPLACING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. SEVERAL SURFACE REPORTS SURROUNDING THE STORM PROVIDES GOOD
CONFIDENCE TO BOTH THE POSITION AND THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT. TS 10W
HAS CROSSED HAINAN AND IS NOW TRACKING THROUGH 31 DEGREE SEA WATERS
IN THE GULF OF TONKIN. THE INTENSIFYING EFFECTS OF WARM WATER ARE
BEING OFFSET BY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TS 10W WILL STRENGTHEN ONLY SLIGHTLY AS THE EFFECTS OF THE
WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF TONKIN ARE MITIGATED BY INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO OVER 35
KNOTS BY THE TIME NOCK-TEN MAKES LANDFALL, WHICH IS NEAR TAU 18.
NOCK-TEN SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL AT AN INTENSITY OF APPROXIMATELY 50
KNOTS, NEAR TAU 18, AND THEN WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER
LAND.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

T3.0/3.0 NOCK-TEN -- West Pacific

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 978.4mb/ 65.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.7 3.8 3.8

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 301500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1108 NOCK-TEN (1108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301500UTC 19.1N 104.8E FAIR
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 200NM EAST 80NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 311500UTC 19.1N 099.6E 75NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =