WPAC: NOCK-TEN (Juaning) - Tropical Depression

[Infdidoll]

Wow! Honestly wasn't expecting much of this being that it formed so close to land. Kind of a shock! How are things where our Philippines friends are? Hope you guys are safe and dry. Impressive given the short amount of time this storm had to form.

[oaba09]

Wow! Honestly wasn't expecting much of this being that it formed so close to land. Kind of a shock! How are things where our Philippines friends are? Hope you guys are safe and dry. Impressive given the short amount of time this storm had to form.

It has been raining pretty much the whole day...Our brothers up north probably have it worst since nock ten is nearer to them......

[phwxenthusiast]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJV6ueZTVEM[/youtube]

first videos from Aurora now surfacing... from Keth Fernandez... this is Casiguran which is on the east northeastern side of the eye when it made landfall this morning...

definitely looks like a typhoon there...

[dexterlabio]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJV6ueZTVEM[/youtube]

first videos from Aurora now surfacing... from Keth Fernandez... this is Casiguran which is on the east northeastern side of the eye when it made landfall this morning...

definitely looks like a typhoon there...

definitely not a TS when it made landfall.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Amazing footage - what a balls up by the agencies. JMA had the chance to up intensity at 03z intermediary update but they didn't. HKO also had it as STS at landfall.

[Chacor]

JTWC has downgraded back to a tropical storm at 09z.

Here's JMA's 09z, still at 50 kt.

WTPQ20 RJTD 270900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1108 NOCK-TEN (1108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270900UTC 16.9N 121.1E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 280900UTC 18.0N 116.1E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 290600UTC 18.8N 113.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 300600UTC 19.9N 109.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

Worth noting that based on the accepted 1-min to 10-min conversions (0.84; 0.87; 0.9 and 0.93 respectively for inland, offland (offshore), offsea (onshore), and at-sea winds), JTWC's peak of 65 kt would correspond to 54-60 kt 10-min. So JTWC was higher on this one, and probably on the right side.

Did PAGASA ever upgrade to typhoon?

[oaba09]

JTWC has downgraded back to a tropical storm at 09z.

Here's JMA's 09z, still at 50 kt.

WTPQ20 RJTD 270900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1108 NOCK-TEN (1108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270900UTC 16.9N 121.1E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 280900UTC 18.0N 116.1E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 290600UTC 18.8N 113.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 300600UTC 19.9N 109.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

Worth noting that based on the accepted 1-min to 10-min conversions (0.84; 0.87; 0.9 and 0.93 respectively for inland, offland (offshore), offsea (onshore), and at-sea winds), JTWC's peak of 65 kt would correspond to 54-60 kt 10-min. So JTWC was higher on this one, and probably on the right side.

Did PAGASA ever upgrade to typhoon?

Nope...pagasa's highest windspeed is 95 kph(51 knots) w/ gustiness of 120 kph(64 knots)...They never categorized it as a typhoon(only a tropical storm)...

[KWT]

Quite clearly a 70-80kt system when it made landfall and even that maybe a little on the lowside.

I wouldn't be that surprised to see it strengthen back upto TY status once past land.

[supercane]

WTPQ50 RJTD 271200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1108 NOCK-TEN (1108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271200UTC 17.2N 120.3E GOOD
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 281200UTC 18.2N 115.7E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 291200UTC 19.6N 112.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 301200UTC 20.3N 109.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 311200UTC 21.0N 106.0E 200NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
120HF 011200UTC 21.3N 103.7E 260NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY =

WTPN31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (NOCK-TEN) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 17.4N 120.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 120.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 18.2N 117.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.8N 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 19.4N 113.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 19.8N 111.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.3N 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 20.3N 105.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 20.5N 101.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 119.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 10W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
271200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND
281500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (NOCK-TEN)//
WARNING NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON 10W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LLCC HAS MOVED JUST OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF LUZON
AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH DECREASED CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING.
THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE IR IMAGERY WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 65 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TS 10W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO,
JAPAN. THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK INCREASINGLY WESTWARD WITH THE RIDGE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE MAJOR STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WHICH SUPPORTS A STRAIGHT RUNNER WESTWARD TRACK.
NOW THAT TS 10W HAS TRACKED BACK OVER WARM WATER IN THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW REMAINS, IT IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY
THROUGH TAU 48. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD WITH
SLIGHT WEAKENING OVER HAINAN ISLAND.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 10W WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER VIETNAM AND
DISSIPATE AFTER TAU 96. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THIS TRACK FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[KWT]

Cool to see that JWTC are now expecting it to reach 65kts again before it makes any further landfall. Much depends on how quickly it can sort out its inner core after that treck overland.

[HURAKAN]

Link: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43911652/ns/weather/

At least 25 reported dead in the Philippines

[KWT]

Given the fact this bombedm right into landfall and produced some very high rainfall totals 25 may actually have been a better total than you'd expect...still sad though for sure.

[HURAKAN]

latest microwave

[KWT]

Circulation is evident though clearly the trek overland has messed about with the inner core. Habe to see how the convection rebounds in the next 24hrs.

[CrazyC83]

My guess for the landfall intensity is 75 kt (1-min) based on a blend of all the data.

[KWT]

Yeah I'd go with something between 75-85kts myself, whatever the case, it was almost certainly undergoing RI when it made landfall.

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 272100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1108 NOCK-TEN (1108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 272100UTC 17.9N 117.7E FAIR
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 282100UTC 18.8N 114.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 291800UTC 20.1N 111.4E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 301800UTC 20.3N 108.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =
WTPN31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (NOCK-TEN) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 18.1N 118.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 118.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.5N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 19.0N 113.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.7N 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 20.1N 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 19.7N 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 20.0N 103.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 21.5N 101.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 117.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 10W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A REDEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH A PROMINENT BANDING FEATURE TO THE SOUTH. A 271616Z 37H TRMM
IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE
MAJORITY OF THE LLCC, WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE BANDING FEATURE TO THE
SOUTH. A 271808Z 89H AMSU IMAGE REVEALS THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS
CONTAINED WITHIN THE BANDING FEATURE AS WELL AS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
THAT LIES JUST OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN LUZON. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
LACK OF CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TS 10W
TO BE IN A FAVORABLE DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH THAT LIES TO THE NORTHEAST. TS 10W WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN IN A
STRAIGHT-RUNNER WESTWARD TRACK. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGES AND ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE AND INITIAL INTENSITY IS IN LINE WITH THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

TXPQ28 KNES 272105
TCSWNP
A. 10W (NOCK-TEN)
B. 27/2032Z
C. 17.8N
D. 117.4E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/3.0/W1.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/TMI/AMSU
H. REMARKS... 3/10 BANDING FOR DT=2.0. MET=2.5 WITH PT=2.0. FT IS
BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
27/1616Z 18.0N 118.4E TMI
27/1808Z 17.8N 117.7E AMSU
...SALEMI

[KWT]

Strong convection on the southern and eastern side of the system, suggests that this system will likely strengthen a decent amount in the next 48-72hrs before landfall, I'm expecting something in the 65-75kts range.

[supercane]

Downgraded to TS from STS by JMA:

WTPQ50 RJTD 280000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1108 NOCK-TEN (1108) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280000UTC 18.1N 116.8E FAIR
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 290000UTC 19.1N 113.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 300000UTC 20.2N 110.4E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 310000UTC 20.3N 106.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 010000UTC 21.5N 104.2E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
120HF 020000UTC 22.6N 102.6E 260NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY =

TPPN10 PGTW 280011
A. TROPICAL STORM 10W (NOCK-TEN)
B. 27/2332Z
C. 18.1N
D. 116.5E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T3.0/3.5/W1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. .50 WRAP ON LOG10
SPIRAL W/ W BAND YIELDED A 3.0 DT. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
QUAST

[weatherSnoop]

Hints of circulation hanging on after its trek across land on that microwave