ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

#3541 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 12:16 am

What will it take to end the drought, a major hurricane now?

#3542 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 12:27 am

Anyway, could convective moisture from thunderstorms redevelop tomorrow with daytime heating off the remnant low? Although that would not end the drought, it might provide some relief...

#3543 Postby **South Texas Storms** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 12:28 am

CrazyC83 wrote:What will it take to end the drought, a major hurricane now?

I guess so. So sad.

WxEnthus · #3544 Postby **WxEnthus** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 12:52 am

South Texas Storms wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:What will it take to end the drought, a major hurricane now?

I guess so. So sad.

Whew, that's harsh but it's pretty much what I thinking was after I saw Don just get swallowed up like that. I went to watch radar expecting to see some rain spreading over southern TX but instead there was just a few tiny dots of very scattered sprinkles. Uh... is this tonight's radar or a loop from yesterday??

For weeks a lot of you in TX have been welcoming a cyclone to head your way and a lot of folks (me included, quietly to myself, while reading all the posts) were saying you really don't want a hurricane do you?! But indeed, it looks like that's what it may take to give you guys some relief, although I'm going to hold out hope for a big, wide rain-soaker of low-level tropical storm to take a slow swing through TX. As desperate as the situation is, I'd rather not see you guys end the drought by way of another bad situation, especially one packing high winds.

Here's hoping August will be better to ya!

#3545 Postby **Rgv20** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 12:55 am

4am July 29 NHC discussion. Looks like the Euro was correct

THE GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THE USUALLY RELIABLE ECMWF MODEL IS
FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST. AN EXAMINATION OF THE ECMWF FIELDS
INDICATES THAT THE MODEL DECOUPLES THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL
CENTERS...ALLOWING DON TO MOVE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS DOES
NOT SEEM LIKELY AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM NOW UNTIL LANDFALL. THUS THE NHC
FORECAST WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

Anyway local meteorologist Tim Smith was lost for words as to what happen to Don. He said ''he has never seen a tropical storm disappear like that'' and that is a first for me too :double:

Macrocane · #3546 Postby **Macrocane** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:00 am

I've seen hurricanes disappear like that, 2005 Adrian went poof just after landfall in Central America although Central America has a lot of mountains that disrupt tropical cyclones easily, it's impressive how it disappeared in such a flat terrain like Texas.

#3547 Postby **South Texas Storms** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:04 am

Rgv20 wrote:4am July 29 NHC discussion. Looks like the Euro was correct

THE GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THE USUALLY RELIABLE ECMWF MODEL IS
FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST. AN EXAMINATION OF THE ECMWF FIELDS
INDICATES THAT THE MODEL DECOUPLES THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL
CENTERS...ALLOWING DON TO MOVE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS DOES
NOT SEEM LIKELY AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM NOW UNTIL LANDFALL. THUS THE NHC
FORECAST WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

Anyway local meteorologist Tim Smith was lost for words as to what happen to Don. He said ''he has never seen a tropical storm disappear like that'' and that is a first for me too

Agreed Rgv. Our local met in SA said pretty much the exact same thing. It seems like we are all sad, stunned and frustrated. What's new? When will this change?

HarlequinBoy · #3548 Postby **HarlequinBoy** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:14 am

There has to be more reason for Don's shocking demise than "Texas is dry". Did the shear finally just blow the thing apart? Kind of like TS Chris ('06).

#3549 Postby **South Texas Storms** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:29 am

HarlequinBoy wrote:There has to be more reason for Don's shocking demise than "Texas is dry". Did the shear finally just blow the thing apart? Kind of like TS Chris ('06).

Here is a snippet from the evening AFD update from NWS Austin/SA: "UNFORTUNATELY...TOO MUCH DRY AIR AND NELY SHEAR ALOFT SPELLED OUT AN EARLY DEMISE OF DON...LIKELY LEAVING MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TX HIGH AND DRY FOR THE EVENT."

So it looks like it was both dry air and shear that killed Don early unfortunately for us drought parched Texans.

#3550 Postby **Ntxw** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:34 am

WxEnthus wrote:For weeks a lot of you in TX have been welcoming a cyclone to head your way and a lot of folks (me included, quietly to myself, while reading all the posts) were saying you really don't want a hurricane do you?! But indeed, it looks like that's what it may take to give you guys some relief, although I'm going to hold out hope for a big, wide rain-soaker of low-level tropical storm to take a slow swing through TX. As desperate as the situation is, I'd rather not see you guys end the drought by way of another bad situation, especially one packing high winds.

Here's hoping August will be better to ya!

Many people have stated be careful what you wish for. However, unless you are in Texas and in the drought areas it's hard to understand the desperation. It is one of the worst if not THE worst drought for the state (and your talking about a state that is in them on and off quite often). An area so large you could cover almost the entire northeast. The price tag of the drought is now not that far off than what a major land falling hurricane would be. At least with a hurricane people can temporarily get out of harms way. With the drought there are very few options.

It's disappointing to see Don not do much at this stage of the game. I was hoping at least more moisture or a 'lift' mechanism boost for other areas of the state at least with scattered diurnal storms...guess not.

#3551 Postby **South Texas Storms** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:38 am

Ntxw wrote:
WxEnthus wrote:For weeks a lot of you in TX have been welcoming a cyclone to head your way and a lot of folks (me included, quietly to myself, while reading all the posts) were saying you really don't want a hurricane do you?! But indeed, it looks like that's what it may take to give you guys some relief, although I'm going to hold out hope for a big, wide rain-soaker of low-level tropical storm to take a slow swing through TX. As desperate as the situation is, I'd rather not see you guys end the drought by way of another bad situation, especially one packing high winds.

Here's hoping August will be better to ya!

Many people have stated be careful what you wish for. However, unless you are in Texas and in the drought areas it's hard to understand the desperation. It is one of the worst if not THE worst drought for the state (and your talking about a state that is in them on and off quite often). An area so large you could cover almost the entire northeast. The price tag of the drought is now not that far off than what a major land falling hurricane would be. At least with a hurricane people can temporarily get out of harms way. With the drought there are very few options.

It's disappointing to see Don not do much at this stage of the game. I was hoping at least more moisture or a 'lift' mechanism boost for other areas of the state at least with scattered diurnal storms...

Well said Ntxw. I'm sad to say that I am hoping for a hurricane to hit us now. I thought that Don would be just what the doctor ordered for us with him bringing much needed rain and not much wind but I was completely wrong. Don just proves how bad our drought really is right now and it seems like we need a hurricane to possibly put a dent in it.

#3552 Postby **somethingfunny** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:42 am

That was one of the saddest things I've ever seen. Texas is so dry that it literally ate a tropical storm.

#3553 Postby **South Texas Storms** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:47 am

somethingfunny wrote:That was one of the saddest things I've ever seen. Texas is so dry that it literally ate a tropical storm.

Agree 100%.

Here are a couple of tweets from our local meteorologist's weather producer:
"I'm telling you folks. I have NEVER seen a tropical system disintegrate so quickly. I'm truly amazed. #DonTheDud"
"Our Chief Meteorologist Steve Browne said it best: 'Don fought the drought and the drought won!'

Rainband · #3554 Postby **Rainband** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:59 am

I really hope you guys get the much needed rain soon. Un real.........

TwisterFanatic · #3555 Postby **TwisterFanatic** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:02 am

Dry air that rushed in from the NE Gulf just absolutely killed Don.

#3556 Postby **somethingfunny** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:06 am

#3557 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:37 am

I have doubts Don has an actual circulation right now. Looks like he opened up.

#3558 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 3:39 am

I don't say the bust word too often, but that TS Warning just was the bust of all busts!

#3559 Postby **somethingfunny** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 4:31 am

JonathanBelles wrote:I don't say the bust word too often, but that TS Warning just was the bust of all busts!

At least they never bit the bait on issuing hurricane watches/warnings like some were urging them to.

#3560 Postby **tolakram** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 7:13 am

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DON DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011
400 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2011

THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. DON SHOULD OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH LATER
TODAY AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE
A RAINFALL THREAT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 27.9N 98.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 30/1800Z 28.5N 101.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Don could not mess with the Texas drought. I mean man, poof.

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