4.9 N 149.7 E
I think this is within the area hinted by the models where another system will be forming.
WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Tropical Depression
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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dexterlabio
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WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Tropical Depression
4.9 N 149.7 E
I think this is within the area hinted by the models where another system will be forming.
Last edited by dexterlabio on Mon Aug 08, 2011 9:33 pm, edited 6 times in total.
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dexterlabio
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W
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StormingB81
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AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.9N 149.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UNORGANIZED LLCC EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS
IN AN AREA OF LOW (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VWS AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UNORGANIZED LLCC EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS
IN AN AREA OF LOW (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VWS AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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dexterlabio
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W
GFS 2318z run
Shear Tendency. Guess this one needs more time.
Shear Tendency. Guess this one needs more time.
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dowdavek
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 4.9N 149.7E IS NOW LOCATED
NEAR 4.7N 148.3E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LLCC EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. THE SAME ANIMATION
SHOWS FORMATIVE BUT DISORGANIZED BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VWS AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH IS ENHANCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
OBSERVATONS FROM CHUUK SHOW SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS AND PRESSURE
FALLS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
DUE TO THE IMPROVING CONVECTION AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
Seems like something is brewing in the deep tropics. Still something to keep an eye on for us on Guam ...
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David D. 
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StormingB81
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StormingB81
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TCFA Issued:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.7N
148.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.4N 148.2E, APPROXIMATELY 280NM
SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK, MICRONESIA. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING AROUND THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 241932Z SSMIS IMAGE REVEALS DEEP
CONVECTION GATHERING AROUND THE LLCC. THE LLCC LIES SOUTH OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN A DIFFLUENT AREA CHARACTERIZED BY ONLY 5 TO
10 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS AS
WELL AS THE 241200Z PGTW STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOW VIGOROUS CROSS-
EQUATORIAL FLOW INTO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. A NEAR-
MISS TO THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION, A 241137Z ASCAT PASS, SHOWED
15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A
DEEP TUTT TO THE NORTHEAST IS IMPROVING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
252300Z.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.7N
148.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.4N 148.2E, APPROXIMATELY 280NM
SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK, MICRONESIA. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING AROUND THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 241932Z SSMIS IMAGE REVEALS DEEP
CONVECTION GATHERING AROUND THE LLCC. THE LLCC LIES SOUTH OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN A DIFFLUENT AREA CHARACTERIZED BY ONLY 5 TO
10 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS AS
WELL AS THE 241200Z PGTW STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOW VIGOROUS CROSS-
EQUATORIAL FLOW INTO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. A NEAR-
MISS TO THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION, A 241137Z ASCAT PASS, SHOWED
15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A
DEEP TUTT TO THE NORTHEAST IS IMPROVING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
252300Z.
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StormingB81
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I know a TCFA has been issued but I will say I think we are really close now to uprading it..I will say it is 11am local now I say by 2pm we will have TD 11...Just my thoughts
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NWS Guam issued SPS on this:
000
WWPQ80 PGUM 250006
SPSPQ
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1006 AM CHST MON JUL 25 2011
PMZ171-PMZ172-260000-
YAP-CHUUK-
1006 AM CHST MON JUL 25 2011
...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK...
AT 900 AM CHST...THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER ISSUED A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ON A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED NEAR
LATITUDE 4.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.2 DEGREES EAST. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A SLOW NORTHWEST
DIRECTION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT PARTS OF CHUUK STATE INCLUDING NAMONUITO
ATOLL AND POLOWAT AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS. IT WILL ALSO AFFECT ALL
THE ISLANDS OF EAST AND SOUTHEAST YAP STATE INCLUDING
FARAULEP..SATAWAL AND WOLEAI. GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
ACCOMPANY HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH GUSTS REACHING 30 KT OR 35 MPH.
SOUTHWEST SWELL GENERATED BY THIS SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED MONSOON
WILL CAUSE SURF TO BUILD TO HAZARDOUS LEVELS ON SOUTH AND WEST
FACING REEFS THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION.
RESIDENTS AND MARINERS IN CHUUK AND YAP STATES ARE ADVISED TO
CLOSELY FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL
SHOULD BE AVOIDED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OPEN OCEAN CONDITIONS
WILL BE MUCH WORSE THAN CONDITIONS INSIDE THE LAGOONS.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM
AND ISSUE UPDATES AS NEEDED.
$$
GUARD/MILLER/AYDLETT
Latest Dvorak classification on this by JTWC actually higher than for TD 10W:
TPPN11 PGTW 250113 COR
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W (SE OF GUAM)
B. 24/2332Z
C. 5.7N
D. 150.6E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5 STT: D0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 70/PBO ANMTN. .25 WRAP YIELDED A 1.5 DT. PT AGREES.
DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
QUAST
000
WWPQ80 PGUM 250006
SPSPQ
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1006 AM CHST MON JUL 25 2011
PMZ171-PMZ172-260000-
YAP-CHUUK-
1006 AM CHST MON JUL 25 2011
...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK...
AT 900 AM CHST...THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER ISSUED A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ON A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED NEAR
LATITUDE 4.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.2 DEGREES EAST. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A SLOW NORTHWEST
DIRECTION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT PARTS OF CHUUK STATE INCLUDING NAMONUITO
ATOLL AND POLOWAT AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS. IT WILL ALSO AFFECT ALL
THE ISLANDS OF EAST AND SOUTHEAST YAP STATE INCLUDING
FARAULEP..SATAWAL AND WOLEAI. GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
ACCOMPANY HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH GUSTS REACHING 30 KT OR 35 MPH.
SOUTHWEST SWELL GENERATED BY THIS SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED MONSOON
WILL CAUSE SURF TO BUILD TO HAZARDOUS LEVELS ON SOUTH AND WEST
FACING REEFS THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION.
RESIDENTS AND MARINERS IN CHUUK AND YAP STATES ARE ADVISED TO
CLOSELY FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL
SHOULD BE AVOIDED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OPEN OCEAN CONDITIONS
WILL BE MUCH WORSE THAN CONDITIONS INSIDE THE LAGOONS.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM
AND ISSUE UPDATES AS NEEDED.
$$
GUARD/MILLER/AYDLETT
Latest Dvorak classification on this by JTWC actually higher than for TD 10W:
TPPN11 PGTW 250113 COR
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W (SE OF GUAM)
B. 24/2332Z
C. 5.7N
D. 150.6E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5 STT: D0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 70/PBO ANMTN. .25 WRAP YIELDED A 1.5 DT. PT AGREES.
DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
QUAST
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JMA 00Z analysis:
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 06N 149E NNW SLOWLY.
Latest SAB Dvorak estimate:
TXPQ29 KNES 250404
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94W)
B. 25/0232Z
C. 5.9N
D. 148.5E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM STILL ORGANIZING WITH DT=1.5 BASED ON 2/10
BANDING. MET=1.5 AND PAT=1.5. FT IS BASED ON PT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SWANSON
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 06N 149E NNW SLOWLY.
Latest SAB Dvorak estimate:
TXPQ29 KNES 250404
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94W)
B. 25/0232Z
C. 5.9N
D. 148.5E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM STILL ORGANIZING WITH DT=1.5 BASED ON 2/10
BANDING. MET=1.5 AND PAT=1.5. FT IS BASED ON PT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SWANSON
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StormingB81
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- Location: Rockledge, Florida
WTPN21 PGTW 242300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.4N 148.2E TO 11.4N 140.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 062030Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.4N 148.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.7N
148.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.4N 148.2E, APPROXIMATELY 280NM
SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK, MICRONESIA. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING AROUND THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 241932Z SSMIS IMAGE REVEALS DEEP
CONVECTION GATHERING AROUND THE LLCC. THE LLCC LIES SOUTH OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN A DIFFLUENT AREA CHARACTERIZED BY ONLY 5 TO
10 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS AS
WELL AS THE 241200Z PGTW STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOW VIGOROUS CROSS-
EQUATORIAL FLOW INTO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. A NEAR-
MISS TO THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION, A 241137Z ASCAT PASS, SHOWED
15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A
DEEP TUTT TO THE NORTHEAST IS IMPROVING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
252300Z.
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.4N 148.2E TO 11.4N 140.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 062030Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.4N 148.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.7N
148.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.4N 148.2E, APPROXIMATELY 280NM
SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK, MICRONESIA. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING AROUND THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 241932Z SSMIS IMAGE REVEALS DEEP
CONVECTION GATHERING AROUND THE LLCC. THE LLCC LIES SOUTH OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN A DIFFLUENT AREA CHARACTERIZED BY ONLY 5 TO
10 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS AS
WELL AS THE 241200Z PGTW STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOW VIGOROUS CROSS-
EQUATORIAL FLOW INTO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. A NEAR-
MISS TO THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION, A 241137Z ASCAT PASS, SHOWED
15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A
DEEP TUTT TO THE NORTHEAST IS IMPROVING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
252300Z.
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Re:
StormingB81 wrote:Models are all over for this one...had a landfall yesterday near tokyo..today has it going near southern Japan..should be an interesting few days see what the models keep saying and what it does...
If thats what the ECM develop, it becomes quite a strong system, probably another 100kt+ type system if the ECM is to be believed...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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alan1961
- Category 2
- Posts: 767
- Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2006 11:58 am
- Location: Derby, Derbyshire, England
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W
GFS have WPAC invest 94 hovering ominously too the south
of japan at 180hrs..busy typhoon traffic
of japan at 180hrs..busy typhoon traffic
Last edited by alan1961 on Mon Jul 25, 2011 6:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Have you seen the track for both the GFS/ECM, both models bend it back to at least the NW, the ECM even moves WNW through S.Japan and into China eventually!
Probably our next biggie that needs close watching!
Probably our next biggie that needs close watching!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Just seen what the UKMO has for this system, and it too has a pretty strong system developing (cat-1 by 96hrs)
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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dexterlabio
- Category 5
- Posts: 3406
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W
Just saw a 11W in NRL site.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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