Near Guam
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.7N 143.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 85 NM WEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH POORLY ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION (WARMING
CLOUD TOPS PAST 12 HOURS) AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL MONSOON TROUGH. A
272038Z WINDSAT IMAGE ALSO INDICATES SHARP TROUGHING EXTENDING
ACROSS THE MARIANAS WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS NO EVIDENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND THE VIGOROUS SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
GUAM (SUSTAINED AT 10-20 KNOTS GUSTING TO 20-30 KNOTS) IS LIKELY A
PRODUCT OF THE GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND MONSOON TROUGH.
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SLP VALUES RANGING FROM 1006-1008 MB. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (30
KNOTS) NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MODEL DEVELOPMENT IS SLOW AND
WEAK DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
TROPICAL STORM 11W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
Very Breezy, rainy here on guam at the moment
Fair chance of development