ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[supercane]

From Tropical Atlantic's Live Reconnaissance Decoder & Archive for the Atlantic Basin page, click on the Live Recon Data in Google Earth link. Obviously, as the link suggests, you must have Google Earth to use this data.

[Macrocane]

You can find the RECON data here clicking High Density Observations USAF or NOAA depending on which plane is flying: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml

The graphics are an application of Google that you have to download I think.

Edit: Sorry I answered a little too late.

[wxman57]

Why is NHC say its going north now. Radar shows it going...
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... b&loop=yes

You're looking at rain being driven westward by northeasterly winds in the mid to upper levels. The center is not connected to that area of rain. With such a poorly-organized depression, you cannot track the center with radar or IR satellite. Surface obs are the only way. They tell a different story...

Oh, and I don't think any piece of energy will move into the SE Gulf and stall, for the person who asked.

[BocaGirl]

Had our fairly typical afternoon t-storms this evening, nothing out of the ordinary other than northerly winds. Its been calm here in Broward besides that.

Cloudy skies in East Boca but no rain, no wind. Hotter than blazes, though.

I'm ready to move on.

BocaGirl
Barbara

[AdamFirst]

Dry, muggy, a bit hazy on the Treasure Coast.

[timmeister]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
720 PM EDT SAT AUG 06 2011

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
EMILY HAS STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY...

SHORTLY BEFORE 7 PM EDT...2300 UTC...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS IN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY HAD INCREASED TO 35 MPH.
BRIEF SQUALLS WITH WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE
ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...NORTHERN ABACO ISLAND...AND ADJACENT
WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 0720 EDT...2320 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 78.2W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.85 INCHES

FORECASTER STEWART/FRANKLIN

[Blown Away]

:uarrow: From Tropical Atlantic's Live Reconnaissance Decoder & Archive for the Atlantic Basin page, click on the Live Recon Data in Google Earth link. Obviously, as the link suggests, you must have Google Earth to use this data.

Thanks, I have Google Earth, opened the link, but could not locate this info?

[artist]

:uarrow: From Tropical Atlantic's Live Reconnaissance Decoder & Archive for the Atlantic Basin page, click on the Live Recon Data in Google Earth link. Obviously, as the link suggests, you must have Google Earth to use this data.

Thanks, I have Google Earth, opened the link, but could not locate this info?

On this page did you click on the Live Recon Data in Google Earth link on the right hand side? If not, then you need to save it to your computer then run it. It should load into google earth for you then. That site belongs to our great friend here that supplies us with the recon decoder, Chris_in_Tampa and if you have any problem I am sure he would be more than glad to help. Just pm him.

[artist]

latest models

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 06 2011

...EMILY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...
...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 78.2W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NNE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH... 13 KM/H. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION WILL
BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE U.S. EAST COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND EMILY COULD REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS ON SUNDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS THROUGH
SUNDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH EMILY.

WIND...WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVY
SQUALLS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS OVERNIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 06 2011

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS AFTERNOON FOUND
1000-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AS HIGH AS 48 KT IN THE SOUTHERN
QUADRANT OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF EMILY. HOWEVER...THESE
WINDS WERE OCCURRING NEAR ISOLATED SMALL CONVECTIVE CELLS AND WERE
NOT CONSIDERED TO BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE STORM-SCALE CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...OTHER FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR SURFACE WIND DATA INDICATE
THAT EMILY IS A SOLID 30-KT DEPRESSION.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTHWARD OR 360/07 KT. EMILY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS THE SMALL CYCLONE MOVES AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS EAST-WEST
ALONG 28N LATITUDE. BY 24 HOURS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
ALONG THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST IS EXPECTED TO CAPTURE EMILY AND
ACCELERATE IT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. EMILY IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AROUND
THE 48-HOUR TIME PERIOD. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT A
LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS ALONG THE
RIGHT SIDE OF THE NHC GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

AFTER LOOKING REASONABLY IMPRESSIVE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...EMILY
IS NOW EXPERIENCING 10-15 OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...WHICH HAS
ELONGATED BOTH THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN AND THE SURFACE WIND FIELD IN
A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION. MODEST NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...WHICH
SHOULD INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. BY 24 HOURS...
HOWEVER...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX...WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR BEFORE WESTERLY WIND SHEAR
BEGINS TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE AND INDUCES WEAKENING. THE EXACT
TIMING OF MERGER WITH A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
CAROLINAS TO NEAR BERMUDA IS DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR OVER SUCH WARM SSTS. ALTHOUGH DISSIPATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
SHORTLY AFTER THE 48-HOUR TIME PERIOD...IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR EMILY TO MAINTAIN ITS IDENTITY OUT TO 72 HOURS AS
INDICATED BY THE SHIPS/LGEM INTENSITY MODELS. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A
BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.

ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT IS SCHEDULED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 27.4N 78.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 29.2N 76.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 30.9N 74.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 32.5N 69.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 34.0N 62.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[ozonepete]

Wow, everyone's gone away. Meanwhile, Emily is building up. It will never have much effect on the Florida coast, unfortunately (because they need the rain there), but it's doing the DMAX again. It's sure looking healthier and sure looks like it's going to be a TS sometime tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

For the record.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 07 2011

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF EMILY DURING THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SATELLITE AND EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGEST
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS RATHER ELONGATED...DISPLACED
NORTHEAST OF A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED...SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT.

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE TO NO INTENSIFICATION. THIS
WOULD SEEM TO BE THE CASE PARTLY BECAUSE OF THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
IN WHICH EMILY IS EMBEDDED BUT ALSO BECAUSE OF THE CYCLONE'S
CURRENT ORGANIZATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHIPS ANALYSES
INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE WHICH COULD BE A FACTOR. UW CIMSS AND SHIPS SHEAR ANALYSES
ALSO INDICATE MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION
WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST IN THE SHORT TERM BEFORE BECOMING
WESTERLY AND INCREASING WITHIN 36 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS NOW SUGGEST
THAT EMILY COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH AROUND OR JUST AFTER THAT
TIME BEFORE ULTIMATELY MERGING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
SHIPS/LGEM MODELS. FOLLOWING THE TREND IN THE GLOBAL MODELS...
DISSIPATION IS NOW INDICATED SOONER.

THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/09. UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THAT
EMILY IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF A LOW-/MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 26N68W. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHEAST
HEADING DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. AFTER THAT...AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES
SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD OR
EVEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH A SIGNIFICANT ACCELERATION. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE BUT REMAINS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 28.5N 77.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 29.9N 75.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 31.7N 72.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 33.4N 66.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[xironman]

She has decoupled, again... hopefully for the last time.

[wxman57]

Yep, that's about it for Emily. Conditions were just too hostile for it to get its act back together. Time to look to the east for Franklin.

[lester]

About time, as Brent would say in chat, NEXT!

- לסטר

[SouthFLTropics]

She has decoupled, again... hopefully for the last time.

http://img838.imageshack.us/img838/7529 ... 7bk34d.jpg[/img]

And there she goes...Streaking naked again towards the North Atlantic hurricane graveyard. You were nothing but a tease Emily. Glad to see you leave! See you again in 2017.

[Jevo]

So then.. I'll see you ladies and gents in Talkin tropics

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 07 2011

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT EMILY CONSISTS OF AN EXPOSED
SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS LOCATED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REMAINING DEEP
CONVECTION. THIS STRUCTURE IS CONSISTENT WITH 20 TO 25 KT OF
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AS SHOWN BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS
SATELLITE ANALYSIS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT ON THE
BASIS OF CONTINUITY AND A DVORAK CI-NUMBER OF 2.0 FROM TAFB. THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AND THE CYCLONE MOVING OVER GRADUALLY COOLER WATERS UNTIL IT IS
ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND AND IS UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IF DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN NEAR THE
CENTER...EMILY COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...
OR THE SYSTEM COULD OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH EARLIER THAN DISSIPATION
IS INDICATED HERE.

SATELLITE FIXES SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS AHEAD OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES
AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...035 DEGREES...AT 15 KT.
OVERALL...THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS EMILY
WILL CONTINUE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AND EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A GRADUALLY AMPLIFYING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
MOVING OFF THE COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE NEW NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS LEFT OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...DUE TO THE
INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION AND AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE NEW
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 30.1N 76.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 31.6N 74.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 08/1200Z 33.4N 69.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 09/0000Z 35.2N 63.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Sanibel]

NHC was remarkable on track once again as well. Just missed the early turn and overestimated strength.


Has the MDO subsided?

[AdamFirst]

Looks like Bones is going to have to make a reappearance.