EPAC: INVEST 95E

[HURAKAN]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep952011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201107291748
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 95, 2011, DB, O, 2011072918, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP952011
EP, 95, 2011072918, , BEST, 0, 122N, 1159W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI JUL 29 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS HAVE REDEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF GUATEMALA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD OR
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[KWT]

12z ECM develops this system but doesn't make it too strong out to 96hrs anyway...though it is strengthening by that point.

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

291821
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1821 UTC FRI JUL 29 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP952011) 20110729 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110729  1800   110730  0600   110730  1800   110731  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.1N 116.0W   12.5N 116.9W   12.8N 117.8W   13.0N 118.8W
BAMD    12.1N 116.0W   12.1N 117.6W   12.2N 119.3W   12.2N 121.2W
BAMM    12.1N 116.0W   12.2N 117.1W   12.4N 118.3W   12.4N 119.6W
LBAR    12.1N 116.0W   12.1N 117.2W   12.3N 119.0W   12.6N 121.2W
SHIP        25KTS          27KTS          30KTS          35KTS
DSHP        25KTS          27KTS          30KTS          35KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110731  1800   110801  1800   110802  1800   110803  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.1N 120.0W   13.4N 123.0W   13.9N 126.3W   14.5N 130.0W
BAMD    12.1N 123.2W   12.0N 127.2W   12.1N 130.7W   13.0N 134.2W
BAMM    12.4N 121.1W   12.4N 124.2W   12.7N 127.1W   13.6N 130.4W
LBAR    12.8N 123.5W   13.7N 128.5W   14.1N 133.3W   13.8N 137.4W
SHIP        40KTS          50KTS          53KTS          49KTS
DSHP        40KTS          50KTS          53KTS          49KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.1N LONCUR = 116.0W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR =   3KT
LATM12 =  11.7N LONM12 = 115.6W DIRM12 = 302DEG SPDM12 =   3KT
LATM24 =  11.5N LONM24 = 115.0W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   70NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI JUL 29 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...THEY COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Yellow Evan]

This has a decent shot at becoming Eugene IMO.

[Extratropical94]

De-INVESTed, gone from NHC.


BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_ep952011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201107310314
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 95, 2011, DB, O, 2011072918, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP952011
EP, 95, 2011072818, , BEST, 0, 115N, 1150W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 95, 2011072900, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1153W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 95, 2011072906, , BEST, 0, 117N, 1156W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 95, 2011072912, , BEST, 0, 119N, 1158W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 95, 2011072918, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1159W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 70, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 95, 2011073000, , BEST, 0, 125N, 1162W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 175, 70, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 95, 2011073006, , BEST, 0, 126N, 1166W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 175, 70, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 95, 2011073012, , BEST, 0, 125N, 1166W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[Florida1118]

Lol 37 pages for Emily and she's still not here, and 95E forms first in less than 1 day of good TWO chances.

[somethingfunny]

This is the wave wayyyy out there, and it was deactivated because it's dead.

[Florida1118]

This is the wave wayyyy out there, and it was deactivated because it's dead.

Ah. Disregard what I said then...lol

[Extratropical94]

Wait a second, two separate invests renumbered to 05E?!


BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep952011_ep052011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201107310741
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 05, 2011, DB, O, 2011072918, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP052011
EP, 05, 2011072818, , BEST, 0, 115N, 1150W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 05, 2011072900, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1153W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 05, 2011072906, , BEST, 0, 117N, 1156W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 05, 2011072912, , BEST, 0, 119N, 1158W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 05, 2011072918, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1159W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 70, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 05, 2011073000, , BEST, 0, 125N, 1162W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 175, 70, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 05, 2011073006, , BEST, 0, 126N, 1166W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 175, 70, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 05, 2011073012, , BEST, 0, 125N, 1166W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,



BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep962011_ep052011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201107310745
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 05, 2011, DB, O, 2011073012, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP052011
EP, 05, 2011072918, , BEST, 0, 95N, 941W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 05, 2011073000, , BEST, 0, 98N, 949W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 05, 2011073006, , BEST, 0, 100N, 956W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 05, 2011073012, , BEST, 0, 102N, 963W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 05, 2011073018, , BEST, 0, 104N, 974W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 175, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 05, 2011073100, , BEST, 0, 104N, 985W, 30, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 175, 60, 40, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 05, 2011073106, , BEST, 0, 106N, 998W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 250, 60, 40, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[somethingfunny]

This is 95E. It's dead.... They must have made a typo when they renumbered 96E and deactivated 95E. All your Eugene stuff will be on Floater 2, here's Floater 1:



forgot to turn on lat/lon when I saved the tinypic. it's around 117E.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like an epic fail now. Long deactivated of course.