WPAC: 97W (Lando) - Tropical Depression

[dexterlabio]

97WINVEST.15kts-1010mb
177N-1189E



So I was right, it will be assigned as an invest. Though appears to be a convection from the monsoonal flow.

[dexterlabio]

JMA describes this as a weak depression:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 17N 117E ALMOST STATIONARY.

Surprisingly, some models are hinting its existence.


Latest from NRL

[dexterlabio]

There seems to be a spin going on as shown in the latest satloop.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/vsmtsatw.html

[phwxenthusiast]

indeed, noticed that too... would really really really love to see the Subic Radar from PAGASA to see a rotation there, it's probably the closest point we can get to the LLCC (if there is one)...

anyway, Subic airport reporting light winds and 1006mb pressure, while Clark airport about 50km to the northeast, is reporting south winds of 6G16Kt...

[Extratropical94]

Excerpt from the 06Z JTWC outlook - MEDIUM

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.0N 117.9E, 
APPROXIMATELY 195 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AND 
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION 
SHEARING TO THE WEST DUE TO THE STRONG OUTFLOW OF STY 11W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL LOW IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
LLCC. A 310129Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH CENTRAL 
10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS AND STRONG WESTERLIES (15 TO 25 KNOTS) 
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING 
PRESSURES OF 1004 TO 1005 MB.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF 
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED 
TO MEDIUM.

[dexterlabio]

Chance looks good, upgraded straight to medium. Hmmm. IMO it could become a TD but with Muifa lingering east of Luzon, the typhoon's outflow will disrupt its circulation and prevent further development into a TS.

Anything is possible, still.

[Extratropical94]

Wow, PAGASA is already at the letter "L" of its naming list and July is still running...
Last year they used letters only up to "K"

[senorpepr]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 17N 118E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[Extratropical94]

010600Z JMA

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 18N 119E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[senorpepr]

On the WWJP25 RJTD 021800, there was no mention of the depression...