HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052011
200 PM PDT MON AUG 01 2011
AN EYE IS NOT YET DISCERNIBLE IN GEOSTATIONARY VISIBLE OR INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT A TRMM OVERPASS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING
INDICATED A CLOSED EYEWALL IN THE 37-GHZ CHANNEL. THE CLOUD PATTERN
HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC IN THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE OUTFLOW IS
NOW WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. IN ADDITION...BANDING HAS
INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER DEFINED....EVEN THOUGH CONVECTIVE TOPS
HAVE WARMED A BIT. BASED UPON THE SATELLITE TRENDS AND CONSENSUS
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 4.0 FROM TAFB/SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 65 KT.
THE INCREASING ORGANIZATION OF EUGENE HAS MADE FINDING THE CENTER
EASIER...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A MORE CONFIDENT 300/11. THE
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT...AND THERE HAS BEEN NO
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY. MID-LEVEL RIDGING NORTH
OF EUGENE OVER MEXICO AND NORTHEAST PACIFIC SHOULD STEER THE
CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AS EUGENE APPROACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE AFTER 48-72 HOURS...THE TRACK MAY BEND MORE TO THE RIGHT AS
THE FORWARD SPEED SLOWS.
EVEN THOUGH MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
OVER EUGENE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS
FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION AT A RATE IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT
DEVELOPMENTAL TREND. HOWEVER...THE INTENSIFICATION COULD BE MORE
RAPID GIVEN THE CLOSED RING SEEN IN EARLIER 37-GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT A RAPID INTENSIFICATION EPISODE IS
POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EUGENE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AFTER ABOUT 48 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN WEAKENING. RAPID WEAKENING IS LIKELY AFTER 72 HOURS
...WITH EUGENE EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON DAY 5. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD IN THE SHORT-TERM...AND
MATCHES THE LGEM/FSSE OUTPUT THE BEST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/2100Z 12.9N 105.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 13.6N 106.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 14.3N 108.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 15.2N 110.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 16.0N 112.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 17.3N 115.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 18.6N 118.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 20.5N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
EPAC: EUGENE - Post-tropical
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139008
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: EUGENE - Hurricane
EPAC gets it's 5th hurricane,now five of five.
HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052011
200 PM PDT MON AUG 01 2011
AN EYE IS NOT YET DISCERNIBLE IN GEOSTATIONARY VISIBLE OR INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT A TRMM OVERPASS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING
INDICATED A CLOSED EYEWALL IN THE 37-GHZ CHANNEL. THE CLOUD PATTERN
HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC IN THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE OUTFLOW IS
NOW WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. IN ADDITION...BANDING HAS
INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER DEFINED....EVEN THOUGH CONVECTIVE TOPS
HAVE WARMED A BIT. BASED UPON THE SATELLITE TRENDS AND CONSENSUS
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 4.0 FROM TAFB/SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 65 KT.
THE INCREASING ORGANIZATION OF EUGENE HAS MADE FINDING THE CENTER
EASIER...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A MORE CONFIDENT 300/11. THE
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT...AND THERE HAS BEEN NO
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY. MID-LEVEL RIDGING NORTH
OF EUGENE OVER MEXICO AND NORTHEAST PACIFIC SHOULD STEER THE
CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AS EUGENE APPROACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE AFTER 48-72 HOURS...THE TRACK MAY BEND MORE TO THE RIGHT AS
THE FORWARD SPEED SLOWS.
EVEN THOUGH MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
OVER EUGENE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS
FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION AT A RATE IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT
DEVELOPMENTAL TREND. HOWEVER...THE INTENSIFICATION COULD BE MORE
RAPID GIVEN THE CLOSED RING SEEN IN EARLIER 37-GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT A RAPID INTENSIFICATION EPISODE IS
POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EUGENE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AFTER ABOUT 48 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN WEAKENING. RAPID WEAKENING IS LIKELY AFTER 72 HOURS
...WITH EUGENE EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON DAY 5. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD IN THE SHORT-TERM...AND
MATCHES THE LGEM/FSSE OUTPUT THE BEST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/2100Z 12.9N 105.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 13.6N 106.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 14.3N 108.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 15.2N 110.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 16.0N 112.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 17.3N 115.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 18.6N 118.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 20.5N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052011
200 PM PDT MON AUG 01 2011
AN EYE IS NOT YET DISCERNIBLE IN GEOSTATIONARY VISIBLE OR INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT A TRMM OVERPASS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING
INDICATED A CLOSED EYEWALL IN THE 37-GHZ CHANNEL. THE CLOUD PATTERN
HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC IN THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE OUTFLOW IS
NOW WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. IN ADDITION...BANDING HAS
INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER DEFINED....EVEN THOUGH CONVECTIVE TOPS
HAVE WARMED A BIT. BASED UPON THE SATELLITE TRENDS AND CONSENSUS
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 4.0 FROM TAFB/SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 65 KT.
THE INCREASING ORGANIZATION OF EUGENE HAS MADE FINDING THE CENTER
EASIER...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A MORE CONFIDENT 300/11. THE
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT...AND THERE HAS BEEN NO
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY. MID-LEVEL RIDGING NORTH
OF EUGENE OVER MEXICO AND NORTHEAST PACIFIC SHOULD STEER THE
CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AS EUGENE APPROACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE AFTER 48-72 HOURS...THE TRACK MAY BEND MORE TO THE RIGHT AS
THE FORWARD SPEED SLOWS.
EVEN THOUGH MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
OVER EUGENE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS
FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION AT A RATE IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT
DEVELOPMENTAL TREND. HOWEVER...THE INTENSIFICATION COULD BE MORE
RAPID GIVEN THE CLOSED RING SEEN IN EARLIER 37-GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT A RAPID INTENSIFICATION EPISODE IS
POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EUGENE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AFTER ABOUT 48 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN WEAKENING. RAPID WEAKENING IS LIKELY AFTER 72 HOURS
...WITH EUGENE EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON DAY 5. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD IN THE SHORT-TERM...AND
MATCHES THE LGEM/FSSE OUTPUT THE BEST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/2100Z 12.9N 105.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 13.6N 106.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 14.3N 108.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 15.2N 110.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 16.0N 112.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 17.3N 115.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 18.6N 118.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 20.5N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Re: EPAC: EUGENE - Hurricane
Wow...5 for 5!
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NOTICE: I cannot give an expert analysis. Most of my "observations" are made visually with the help of only vital information provided by public advisories.
Re: EPAC: EUGENE - Hurricane
No doubt that EPAC has had a far more interesting season than the Atlantic and fortunately most of the storms have caused little damage. I'm not sure if it will become a major hurricane but that would be really impressive esecially because we're in a Neutral season.
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Pretty impressive stat thats for sure, 5 out of 5 storms have become hurricanes!
System looking good, wouldn't surprise me if it does indeed make it to at least category-2.
System looking good, wouldn't surprise me if it does indeed make it to at least category-2.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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Hurricane Jed
- Category 2
- Posts: 542
- Age: 36
- Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2011 3:36 pm
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1966 I think. But with the satellite still in its infancy back then and the EPAC not as well monitored back then as it is today its a little suspicious. All six hurricanes were Category 1 with 75 mph apparently.Interesting season thus far in the EPAC. The 5 for 5 hurricanes so far despite a neutral year. A Category 4 to start the season, and then a near Category 5. Plus all the hurricanes including the Category 1's have looked pretty organized and well-defined on satellite.
Haha if Eugene does becomes a major hurricane it will equal the maximum predicted total of major hurricanes for the season.
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cycloneye
- Admin
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Re: EPAC: EUGENE - Hurricane
HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052011
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 02 2011
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT EUGENE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SPIRALING DEEP CONVECTION HAS
BECOME QUITE PROMINENT...AND THERE ARE NOW HINTS OF AN EYE FORMING
IN THE INFRARED CHANNEL. THE WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 80 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY...ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE ESTIMATES BECAUSE OF THE
IMPROVED CENTRAL FEATURES...AND EVEN THIS WIND SPEED ESTIMATE COULD
BE CONSERVATIVE.
THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE INITIAL MOTION OF 290/13.
HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A RATHER LARGE CHANGE IN THE PREDICTED
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN A COUPLE DAYS. WHILE THERE IS A STILL A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEST OF 120W....ENOUGH RIDGING IS
PRESENT IN ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO NOT ALLOW EUGENE TO GAIN
SIGNIFICANT LATITUDE. EVEN THE REGIONAL MODELS...HWRF/GFDL...NO
LONGER SHOW MUCH OF A NORTHWARD TURN UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ONLY A KNOT OR TWO
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT STILL ENDS UP WELL WEST OF THE
LAST FORECAST. THE MOST RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS...
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET...ARE STILL FASTER THAN THE NEW FORECAST...AND IT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF FUTURE WESTWARD ADJUSTMENTS WERE STILL
NEEDED.
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS EUGENE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SO FAR THIS SHEAR HAS NOT BEEN STRONG
ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH DISRUPTION...AS SEEN BY THE STEADY
INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER
COOLER WATER TOMORROW...WHICH WILL LIKELY INITIATE A WEAKENING
TREND. EUGENE WILL ENCOUNTER MUCH COLDER WATERS BY DAY 3... WHICH
SHOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING. GIVEN THE RECENT TREND IN
ORGANIZATION...THE NHC FORECAST IS ON THE UPPER EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE EARLY ON...AND IS BLENDED CLOSER TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THEREAFTER. GIVEN THE RECENT
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF EUGENE
BRIEFLY BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0900Z 13.8N 108.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 14.3N 109.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 15.0N 111.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 15.8N 113.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 16.6N 115.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 18.0N 120.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 19.5N 123.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 21.0N 127.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052011
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 02 2011
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT EUGENE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SPIRALING DEEP CONVECTION HAS
BECOME QUITE PROMINENT...AND THERE ARE NOW HINTS OF AN EYE FORMING
IN THE INFRARED CHANNEL. THE WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 80 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY...ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE ESTIMATES BECAUSE OF THE
IMPROVED CENTRAL FEATURES...AND EVEN THIS WIND SPEED ESTIMATE COULD
BE CONSERVATIVE.
THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE INITIAL MOTION OF 290/13.
HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A RATHER LARGE CHANGE IN THE PREDICTED
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN A COUPLE DAYS. WHILE THERE IS A STILL A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEST OF 120W....ENOUGH RIDGING IS
PRESENT IN ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO NOT ALLOW EUGENE TO GAIN
SIGNIFICANT LATITUDE. EVEN THE REGIONAL MODELS...HWRF/GFDL...NO
LONGER SHOW MUCH OF A NORTHWARD TURN UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ONLY A KNOT OR TWO
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT STILL ENDS UP WELL WEST OF THE
LAST FORECAST. THE MOST RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS...
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET...ARE STILL FASTER THAN THE NEW FORECAST...AND IT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF FUTURE WESTWARD ADJUSTMENTS WERE STILL
NEEDED.
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS EUGENE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SO FAR THIS SHEAR HAS NOT BEEN STRONG
ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH DISRUPTION...AS SEEN BY THE STEADY
INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER
COOLER WATER TOMORROW...WHICH WILL LIKELY INITIATE A WEAKENING
TREND. EUGENE WILL ENCOUNTER MUCH COLDER WATERS BY DAY 3... WHICH
SHOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING. GIVEN THE RECENT TREND IN
ORGANIZATION...THE NHC FORECAST IS ON THE UPPER EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE EARLY ON...AND IS BLENDED CLOSER TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THEREAFTER. GIVEN THE RECENT
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF EUGENE
BRIEFLY BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0900Z 13.8N 108.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 14.3N 109.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 15.0N 111.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 15.8N 113.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 16.6N 115.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 18.0N 120.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 19.5N 123.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 21.0N 127.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hmmm thats really close to reaching major hurricane status. The EPAC showing the Atlantic how its done when it comes to developing strong systems this year!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139008
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: EUGENE - Hurricane
HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052011
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 02 2011
OCCASIONALLY IT HAS APPEARED THAT EUGENE HAS BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP
AN EYE...BUT EVERY TIME THAT HAPPENS THE WARM SPOT NOTED IN
INFRARED IMAGERY DISAPPEARS. STILL...THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW 90 KT AND 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...
RESPECTIVELY...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING RAISED TO 85 KT ON
THIS ADVISORY.
EUGENE HAS BEEN DEFYING THE MODELS AND IS NOT SLOWING DOWN. THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/13. STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
BREAK IN THE RIDGE FARTHER WEST NEAR 128W FILLING A BIT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE HURRICANE IS THEREFORE NOT EXPECTED TO GAIN
MUCH LATITUDE AS IT REMAINS EMBEDDED IN MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
FASTER-MOVING GFS...GFDL...AND UKMET DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS AND
LEANS TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE THEREAFTER.
ALTHOUGH MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS NOT PREVENTED EUGENE
FROM STRENGTHENING...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT IS JUST ENOUGH TO
PREVENT THE HURRICANE FROM DEVELOPING AND MAINTAINING AN EYE.
NONETHELESS...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ALL INDICATE ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS STILL AT THE UPPER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND IS
ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST 48
HOURS. EUGENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE...AND BASED ON RECENT
NHC INTENSITY ERRORS AND THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST...THERE IS
ROUGHLY A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF THAT OCCURRING AT SOME POINT DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER 48 HOURS...EUGENE SHOULD BE MOVING
ACROSS COOLER WATERS...AND THE FORECAST INDICATES A RATE OF
WEAKENING SIMILAR TO THAT SHOWN BY THE LGEM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/1500Z 14.0N 109.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 14.5N 111.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 15.3N 113.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 16.1N 115.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 16.8N 117.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 18.0N 122.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 19.5N 126.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 20.5N 129.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BERG
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052011
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 02 2011
OCCASIONALLY IT HAS APPEARED THAT EUGENE HAS BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP
AN EYE...BUT EVERY TIME THAT HAPPENS THE WARM SPOT NOTED IN
INFRARED IMAGERY DISAPPEARS. STILL...THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW 90 KT AND 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...
RESPECTIVELY...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING RAISED TO 85 KT ON
THIS ADVISORY.
EUGENE HAS BEEN DEFYING THE MODELS AND IS NOT SLOWING DOWN. THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/13. STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
BREAK IN THE RIDGE FARTHER WEST NEAR 128W FILLING A BIT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE HURRICANE IS THEREFORE NOT EXPECTED TO GAIN
MUCH LATITUDE AS IT REMAINS EMBEDDED IN MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
FASTER-MOVING GFS...GFDL...AND UKMET DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS AND
LEANS TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE THEREAFTER.
ALTHOUGH MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS NOT PREVENTED EUGENE
FROM STRENGTHENING...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT IS JUST ENOUGH TO
PREVENT THE HURRICANE FROM DEVELOPING AND MAINTAINING AN EYE.
NONETHELESS...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ALL INDICATE ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS STILL AT THE UPPER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND IS
ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST 48
HOURS. EUGENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE...AND BASED ON RECENT
NHC INTENSITY ERRORS AND THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST...THERE IS
ROUGHLY A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF THAT OCCURRING AT SOME POINT DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER 48 HOURS...EUGENE SHOULD BE MOVING
ACROSS COOLER WATERS...AND THE FORECAST INDICATES A RATE OF
WEAKENING SIMILAR TO THAT SHOWN BY THE LGEM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/1500Z 14.0N 109.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 14.5N 111.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 15.3N 113.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 16.1N 115.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 16.8N 117.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 18.0N 122.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 19.5N 126.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 20.5N 129.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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Still forecasting 95kts as a max strength, so close to a major hurricane being forecasted...may just make it.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
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Re: EPAC: EUGENE - Hurricane
I do see an eye on visible imagery, but on IR it looks sloppy. It has a shot at reaching 115 mph, we'll see.
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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: EUGENE - Hurricane
brunota2003 wrote:I do see an eye on visible imagery, but on IR it looks sloppy. It has a shot at reaching 115 mph, we'll see.
knts please? I agree with you, looks like 90 knts IMO.
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: EUGENE - Hurricane
Forecast to become a major.
HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052011
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 02 2011
EUGENE HAS FINALLY BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP AN EYE...ALBEIT A LARGE AND
RAGGED ONE. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB
ARE BOTH 5.0...AND GIVEN THE IMPROVED APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY SINCE THIS MORNING...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 90
KT. A 1555 UTC SSMIS PASS SHOWED A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED
MICROWAVE EYE...BUT THIS IMAGE...ALONG WITH CONVENTIONAL VISIBLE
IMAGERY...SUGGESTS THAT SOME DRY AIR IS BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. NONETHELESS...THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST EUGENE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
UNTIL IT REACHES THE 26C ISOTHERM IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE NEW
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ONE THROUGH THE FIRST 36 HOURS AND NOW EXPLICITLY CALLS FOR THE
HURRICANE TO REACH MAJOR STATUS...IN LINE WITH ALL THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST IS LEFT UNCHANGED AND CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE LGEM. IT IS NOW LIKELY...ABOUT A 4 IN 5 CHANCE...THAT
EUGENE WILL REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AT SOME POINT DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
EUGENE MAY FINALLY BE DECELERATING...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 285/12. THERE IS NOTHING EARTH-SHATTERING TO ADD TO
THE FORECAST REASONING...AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST WAS REQUIRED ON THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A HAIR
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/2100Z 14.2N 110.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 14.7N 112.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 15.5N 114.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 16.2N 116.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 16.9N 118.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 18.2N 123.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 19.5N 127.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 20.5N 130.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BERG
HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052011
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 02 2011
EUGENE HAS FINALLY BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP AN EYE...ALBEIT A LARGE AND
RAGGED ONE. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB
ARE BOTH 5.0...AND GIVEN THE IMPROVED APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY SINCE THIS MORNING...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 90
KT. A 1555 UTC SSMIS PASS SHOWED A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED
MICROWAVE EYE...BUT THIS IMAGE...ALONG WITH CONVENTIONAL VISIBLE
IMAGERY...SUGGESTS THAT SOME DRY AIR IS BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. NONETHELESS...THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST EUGENE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
UNTIL IT REACHES THE 26C ISOTHERM IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE NEW
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ONE THROUGH THE FIRST 36 HOURS AND NOW EXPLICITLY CALLS FOR THE
HURRICANE TO REACH MAJOR STATUS...IN LINE WITH ALL THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST IS LEFT UNCHANGED AND CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE LGEM. IT IS NOW LIKELY...ABOUT A 4 IN 5 CHANCE...THAT
EUGENE WILL REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AT SOME POINT DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
EUGENE MAY FINALLY BE DECELERATING...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 285/12. THERE IS NOTHING EARTH-SHATTERING TO ADD TO
THE FORECAST REASONING...AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST WAS REQUIRED ON THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A HAIR
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/2100Z 14.2N 110.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 14.7N 112.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 15.5N 114.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 16.2N 116.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 16.9N 118.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 18.2N 123.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 19.5N 127.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 20.5N 130.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Well there we go, now the NHC are putting the chance out there for a major hurricane...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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Looking back at the intensity guidance archive they were playing catch up again for the 5th time this year. It seems that the intensity guidance are really underestimating the TC intensity forecast in the eastern pacific this year.
Anyway the Eastern Pacific is now 5 of 5 on hurricanes that is amazing
Anyway the Eastern Pacific is now 5 of 5 on hurricanes that is amazing
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