EPAC: EUGENE - Post-tropical

[cycloneye]

Is a Major Hurricane

HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052011
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 02 2011

EUGENE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY DEEP
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AND BECOME
MORE SYMMETRIC AROUND THE EYE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB
AND SAB WERE 90 KT AT 0000Z...BUT GIVEN THE IMPROVEMENT IN
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION SINCE THEN THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT
100 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST ADT SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS. THIS MAKES EUGENE A MAJOR HURRICANE...THE
THIRD OF THE 2011 EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON.

ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING...EUGENE STILL HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS OVER RELATIVELY
WARM WATERS AND IN A SIMILAR ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AS IT IS IN
CURRENTLY. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN THE GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM. IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...THE
HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SUB-26C WATER...AND RAPID
WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO COMMENCE AROUND THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE LGEM DURING THE WEAKENING PHASE.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KT...AS IT REMAINS
TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. THERE IS NOT MUCH NEW TO DISCUSS ABOUT THE FUTURE
TRACK OF EUGENE. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BASICALLY HOLD IN
PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW EUGENE
TO CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL PATH. A REDUCTION IN SPEED IS
LIKELY ONCE THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES STEERED BY THE WEAKER
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY A TAD TO
THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 14.7N 111.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 15.3N 113.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 16.2N 115.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 16.9N 118.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 17.5N 120.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 18.8N 124.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 20.0N 128.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 21.0N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[Fyzn94]

And boy, does it look like one!

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like my first wish came true. Any shot at Cat 4 status?

[Macrocane]

The last time that there were more than 2 major hurricanes in a non-El Niño season was 1998, since then only El Niño seasons had had 3 or more majors but tonight that spell was broken. This has been an incredible season and we're only approaching the peak although it could become less active in the next few weeks.

[Cyclenall]

It appeared that Eugene had a nice skirt before becoming a beautiful buzzsaw early yesterday morning. It's unusual to see this in the Epac and something else I noticed is that Eugene has retained a same look that has lasted during its entire lifespan which is very rare considering tropical cyclones as they evolve take on different forms.

Hurricane Eugene over the last 20 hours as been doing the wrap-around where an eye is intermittent. Insane that it did indeed reach major status for the 3rd time this year in the Epac. Having 5/5/3 at the start of August was totally unexpected but we must expect the unexpected in the tropics . The TC's have been spaced out and not occurring all at once like in some previous years so every week a new hurricane comes for us to enjoy .

Looks like my first wish came true. Any shot at Cat 4 status?

Congrats to the both of us, we both predicted Eugene would reach major hurricane status despite the 65 knot peak intensity estimate by the NHC (first advisory). I didn't check to see if any model guidance was showing a major at the beginning stages of Eugene. I think Hurricane Eugene's upper limit is 110 knots like the NHC is thinking. So what is your 2nd wish and beyond?

Latest Numbers:

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 953.7mb/107.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 5.8 5.8

[KWT]

Looks like my first wish came true. Any shot at Cat 4 status?

Not impossible, the system does look very good right now....

The EPAC not shoting out big numbers but most storms are becoming well organised and strong, at least the ACE won't be as low as some previous years.

[Yellow Evan]

It appeared that Eugene had a nice skirt before becoming a beautiful buzzsaw early yesterday morning. It's unusual to see this in the Epac and something else I noticed is that Eugene has retained a same look that has lasted during its entire lifespan which is very rare considering tropical cyclones as they evolve take on different forms.

Hurricane Eugene over the last 20 hours as been doing the wrap-around where an eye is intermittent. Insane that it did indeed reach major status for the 3rd time this year in the Epac. Having 5/5/3 at the start of August was totally unexpected but we must expect the unexpected in the tropics . The TC's have been spaced out and not occurring all at once like in some previous years so every week a new hurricane comes for us to enjoy .

Looks like my first wish came true. Any shot at Cat 4 status?

Congrats to the both of us, we both predicted Eugene would reach major hurricane status despite the 65 knot peak intensity estimate by the NHC (first advisory). I didn't check to see if any model guidance was showing a major at the beginning stages of Eugene. I think Hurricane Eugene's upper limit is 110 knots like the NHC is thinking. So what is your 2nd wish and beyond?

My next wish is that 97E becomes Hurricane Fernanda.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052011
800 AM PDT WED AUG 03 2011

EUGENE HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A BAND
OF WHITE ON THE DVORAK INFRARED ENHANCEMENT CURVE COMPLETELY
SURROUNDED THE LARGE AND RAGGED EYE FOR SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL ABOUT
1330 UTC...AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB
WERE 100 TO 105 KT AT 1200 UTC. EVEN WITH A BREAK IN THE WHITE
BAND RECENTLY DEVELOPING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE HURRICANE...
THE LATEST OBJECTIVE UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES ARE HIGHER...BETWEEN
115 AND 120 KT...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 110 KT AS A
COMPROMISE.

EVEN THOUGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING ALONG THE PATH OF
EUGENE...THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER A PATCH OF HIGHER
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT THAT MAY HAVE AIDED INTENSIFICATION OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE WILL BE EXITING THAT REGION BY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE A BIT DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREFORE...EUGENE HAS PROBABLY REACHED ITS
PEAK INTENSITY AND SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER TODAY. IN
GENERAL...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE INDICATING FASTER WEAKENING THAN
THE STATISTICAL MODELS...BUT THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST PUTS
MORE RELIANCE ON THE LATTER...PARTICULARLY WITH THE LGEM AFTER 48
HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 290/12. A BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
NEAR 128W WILL BE FILLING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE MODELS
ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN EUGENE ON
ITS CURRENT MOTION FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. ANOTHER BREAK IN THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 135W AND 150W BY DAYS 4 AND
5...BUT EUGENE SHOULD HAVE WEAKENED ENOUGH BY THEN TO BE STEERED BY
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 15.7N 114.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 16.3N 115.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 17.0N 118.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 17.7N 120.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 18.4N 122.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 19.8N 126.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 21.0N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 21.5N 133.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like it's peaked.

[Fyzn94]

From a little over an hour ago:

[Macrocane]

Very impressive presentation, I think it may have strengthtened a little more since this morning, it looks better than Muifa in the WPAC.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 05, 2011080318, , BEST, 0, 158N, 1148W, 115, 947, HU, 64, NEQ, 40, 35, 30, 40, 1007, 240, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, EUGENE, D, Now a Cat 4!

[cycloneye]

Reaches Cat 4


HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052011
200 PM PDT WED AUG 03 2011

CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AROUND THE EYE OF EUGENE HAVE WARMED SINCE
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE EYE ITSELF HAS CLEARED OUT...AND ITS
WARMING HAS COMPENSATED FOR THE WARMING CLOUD TOPS SUCH THAT
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW
T6.0...OR 115 KT. MORE RECENTLY...OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATES ARE
RUNNING BETWEEN 120 AND 125 KT...SO THE INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT
120 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...MAKING EUGENE A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE.

EUGENE HAS DEFIED THE MODELS AND CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. HOWEVER...
ITS TIME OVER SSTS OF AT LEAST 26C IS RUNNING OUT...ABOUT 12 TO 18
HOURS IN FACT...THEREFORE IT SEEMS THAT WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN
SOON. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AT THE UPPER END OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND MORE OR LESS FOLLOWS
THE STATISTICAL MODELS. ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS-DERIVED ANNULAR
HURRICANE INDEX INDICATES THAT EUGENE IS NOT ANNULAR AT THIS
TIME...IT IS BEGINNING TO TAKE ON SOME ANNULAR CHARACTERISTICS...
SUCH AS A LARGE EYE AND WIDE RING OF DEEP CONVECTION. IF EUGENE
BECOMES ANNULAR SOON...AND ITS FORECAST TRACK ACROSS GRADUALLY
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD FAVOR THAT...THEN THE
CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN MORE GRADUALLY THAN INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

EUGENE CONTINUES TO MOVE WITH A MOTION OF 290/12. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS...AND THE
HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT MOTION TO THE SOUTH
OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 130W AND 150W BY DAY 4...AND THERE IS A
LITTLE MORE SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODELS AT THAT TIME. THE NEW
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH THE FIRST
36 HOURS AND REALLY ONLY DEVIATES FROM THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT
DAYS 4 AND 5...MAINLY TO DISREGARD THE SLOWER...NORTHWARD-TURNING
GFDL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 16.0N 115.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 16.7N 117.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 17.4N 119.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 18.1N 121.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 18.7N 124.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 20.0N 128.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 21.5N 132.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 22.0N 134.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Yellow Evan]

Back to Back EPAC Cat 4's

[KWT]

Very impressive system, not all that surprising its become a category-4 hurricane given the presentation on Fyzn94 image!

[Swimdude]

The discussion even uses the A-word!

[Yellow Evan]

Any shot at Cat 5?

[RL3AO]

Looking better. I'd estimate 125 to 130kts.

[bob rulz]

Any shot at Cat 5?

I would say no. It doesn't have enough time left over warm waters. But it sure is taking full advantage of the environment.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Very interesting cloud structure in the eye. It really does look like it's taking on annular characteristics. If so wouldn't that make it the second Eastern Pacific annular hurricane in one season? I always thought they were more rare than this. I think I read it was 3% of all hurricanes in the Pacific become annular.