EPAC: EUGENE - Post-tropical

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RL3AO
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#81 Postby RL3AO » Wed Aug 03, 2011 8:05 pm

You could argue that Dora never became all out annular, just had some annular characteristics.
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Re: EPAC: EUGENE - Major Hurricane

#82 Postby Fyzn94 » Wed Aug 03, 2011 9:38 pm

Down to category 3
...Looks like it's the end of the road for Eugene.
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Re: EPAC: EUGENE - Major Hurricane

#83 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:26 pm

Another beautiful major hurricane in the Pacific. What a season they are having so far.
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#84 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:42 pm

and I am certain the Eugene will collapse like Adrian, Beatriz, and Calvin
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#85 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:43 pm

B-E-A-U-TIFUL...bye bye Eugene.
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#86 Postby Chacor » Thu Aug 04, 2011 1:55 am

04/0600 UTC 16.5N 117.2W T5.5/6.0 EUGENE -- East Pacific
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#87 Postby Chacor » Thu Aug 04, 2011 5:08 am

WTPZ45 KNHC 040900
TCDEP5

HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052011
200 AM PDT THU AUG 04 2011

CORRECTED FOR SPELLING

EUGENE HAS NOT WEAKENED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...EVEN THOUGH
IT HAS BEGUN TO TRAVERSE A SHARP GRADIENT OF SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH THE SIZE OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS
SHRUNK...IT REMAINS RATHER SYMMETRIC. IN ADDITION...CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE RECENTLY COOLED AROUND A WELL-DEFINED 30 NM
DIAMETER EYE. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT
AT 110 KT...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF T/CI NUMBERS FROM
TAFB/SAB. THE MAIN QUESTION NOW IS HOW QUICKLY THE RATE OF
WEAKENING WILL BE NOW THAT EUGENE IS MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER WATERS. WEAKENING MAY INITIALLY BE TEMPERED A BIT BY
EUGENE HAVING SOME OF THE CLASSIC CHARACTERISTICS OF AN ANNULAR
HURRICANE IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. FOR THIS REASON...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS BUT CALLS FOR A RAPID WEAKENING
AFTER THAT...FAIRLY CLOSE TO A IVCN/FSSE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
EUGENE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW WITHIN 72
HOURS AND DISSIPATE IN 4-5 DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12...ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM
BEFORE. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS THE SAME AS IN PREVIOUS
ADVISORIES. EUGENE IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT MOTION
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
ITS NORTH OVER THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC. THE FORWARD SPEED
OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD SLOW CONSIDERABLY ONCE THE CYCLONE WEAKENS
AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO A MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS MINUS THE HWRF WHICH CONTINUES TO LIE WELL NORTH OF THE
MAIN TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 16.7N 117.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 17.3N 119.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 18.1N 122.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 18.7N 124.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 19.3N 126.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 20.3N 130.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/0600Z 21.0N 133.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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#88 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Aug 04, 2011 8:29 am

Does not look too too bad on sat imagery. Still has an ok looking eye.
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Re: EPAC: EUGENE - Major Hurricane

#89 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 04, 2011 9:37 am

HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052011
800 AM PDT THU AUG 04 2011

COLDER CLOUD TOPS DEVELOPED AROUND THE EYE SEVERAL HOURS AGO...AND
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 1200 UTC WERE 115
KT AND 102 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. IN ADDITION...
OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS INCREASED BACK UP TO 115 KT
AFTER 0800 UTC. A BLEND OF THESE NUMBERS SUGGESTS AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 105 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL 285/12 AND SHOULD REMAIN ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS EUGENE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED
BY THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHOSE AXIS IS ALONG 28N. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. EUGENE
SHOULD SLOW DOWN BY DAYS 3 AND 4 AS THE WEAKENED CYCLONE IS STEERED
BY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

FOR THE FIRST TIME...THE SHIPS-DERIVED ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX
INDICATES THAT EUGENE HAS GAINED ANNULAR CHARACTERISTICS...AND THE
SLOW WEAKENING OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS OR SO BEARS THIS OUT.
TRUTHFULLY...THE PRESENTATION OF THE HURRICANE HAS DEGRADED SOMEWHAT
IN THE LAST FEW INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES...BUT IT
WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME FOR THE DVORAK CI NUMBERS...AND PRESUMABLY
THE ACTUAL INTENSITY...TO DECREASE. ALSO...SINCE THE FORECAST
TRACK HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH...THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE TRACK WILL BE DECREASING MORE GRADUALLY AND COULD SUPPORT
SLOWER WEAKENING. IN LIGHT OF THESE POINTS...THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT HIGHER THAN ALL THE GUIDANCE FOR THE
FIRST 12 HOURS AND THEN FOLLOWS THE HIGHEST OF THE MODELS...THE
LGEM...FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EUGENE SHOULD
ULTIMATELY WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 OVER 22C DEGREE WATERS
AND DEGENERATE TO A TROUGH BY DAY 5...AS INDICATED IN THE GLOBAL
MODEL FIELDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 16.8N 118.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 17.4N 120.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 18.0N 123.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 18.6N 125.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 19.2N 127.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 20.5N 131.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 21.0N 134.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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#90 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Aug 04, 2011 12:07 pm

Eugene is losing convection quickly but still has a decent looking eye.
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Re: EPAC: EUGENE - Major Hurricane

#91 Postby Fyzn94 » Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:12 pm

Cat 2...pressure is skyrocketing.
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#92 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:20 pm

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052011
200 PM PDT THU AUG 04 2011

ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AROUND THE EYE OF EUGENE HAVE NOT
WARMED MUCH...THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS BEEN SHRINKING OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE T4.5/5.5 FROM BOTH
TAFB AND SAB...AND THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS
IS T5.0/5.8. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 95 KT BASED ON A
BLEND OF THESE NUMBERS. EUGENE IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN AS
IT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER WATERS COLDER THAN 24C AND INTO A DRIER...
MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CONTINUES TO CLOSELY
FOLLOW LGEM...THE HIGHEST OF THE GUIDANCE...THROUGH THE FIRST 24
HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE FASTER WEAKENING
THAN INDICATED BY THE LGEM AND IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS
IVCN. DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR AROUND 96 HOURS...AS INDICATED BY
THE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS.

EUGENE CONTINUES TO MOVE AT 285/12 AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG
THAT GENERAL HEADING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SOME
DECELERATION AFTER 36 HOURS. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS RIGHT ON
TRACK WITH THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BETWEEN THE ECMWF MODEL AND THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.

ALTHOUGH A 1658 UTC ASCAT PASS ONLY SKIMMED THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
HURRICANE...IT DID INDICATE THAT THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE TOO
LARGE ON THAT SIDE. THE RADII HAVE BEEN TRIMMED IN ALL
QUADRANTS...BUT WITHOUT REAL GROUND TRUTH...THEY COULD STILL BE A
LITTLE GENEROUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 17.2N 120.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 17.6N 121.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 18.2N 124.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 18.9N 126.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 19.5N 128.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 20.5N 132.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 21.0N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG

NNNN
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#93 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Aug 04, 2011 7:19 pm

Eye no longer visible via IR imagery.
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Re: EPAC: EUGENE - Hurricane

#94 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 04, 2011 9:39 pm

HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052011
800 PM PDT THU AUG 04 2011

EUGENE HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS THE
STRUCTURE OF THE EYE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DECAYED. AT 0000 UTC...
DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES WERE BETWEEN 77 AND 83 KT...AND WITH THE
RECENT COMPLETE LOSS OF ANY EYE FEATURE...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
SET TO 75 KT. STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING SEEMS LIKELY AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A DRY STABLE
ENVIRONMENT. MOST OF THE MODELS NOW SHOW A FASTER DECLINE IN
WINDS...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT LOWER THAN THE LAST
ADVISORY. REMNANT LOW STATUS IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN 3 DAYS DUE TO
SSTS COOLING BELOW 23C.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING AT THE RATHER CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OF 285/11.
THIS GENERAL TRACK AND SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDING FIRM TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE. AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT SHOULD TURN
A BIT MORE TOWARD THE WEST AND SLOW DOWN IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW.
THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
REMAINING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 17.4N 121.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 17.8N 123.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 18.4N 125.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 19.0N 127.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 19.6N 129.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 20.5N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/0000Z 21.0N 136.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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#95 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Aug 04, 2011 10:11 pm

Gradually looking worse.
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#96 Postby Chacor » Fri Aug 05, 2011 3:37 am

WTPZ45 KNHC 050835
TCDEP5

HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052011
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 05 2011

EUGENE CONTINUES TO STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER WATERS. A COUPLE OF MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATED THAT THE INNER
CORE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE HAS DECAYED FURTHER. THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS ALSO BEEN QUICKLY SHRINKING...AND THAT WHICH REMAINS
PRIMARILY LIES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS SOUTH OF THE
CENTER. THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 65 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF T AND
CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED...
WITH THE WEAKENING PERHAPS BECOMING MORE RAPID ONCE EUGENE REACHES
SUB-24C WATERS AFTER 12 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND AGREES WELL WITH THE LATEST INTENSITY
CONSENSUS AIDS. REMNANT LOW STATUS IS NOW FORECAST WITHIN 2 DAYS...
SOONER THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS.

EUGENE REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE STILL
285/11. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD HOLD
SWAY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE EUGENE TO
MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT HEADING AND SPEED. ONCE EUGENE WEAKENS
FURTHER AND BECOMES A SHALLOW CYCLONE...A DECELERATION OF THE
FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST IN THE RELATIVELY LIGHTER TRADE WIND
FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
THAT DISREGARDS THE HWRF.

THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN MODIFIED BASED UPON A 0546 UTC ASCAT PASS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 17.6N 122.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 18.1N 123.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 18.7N 126.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 19.2N 128.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 19.7N 130.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/0600Z 20.5N 133.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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#97 Postby Chacor » Fri Aug 05, 2011 9:38 am

Downgraded:

WTPZ45 KNHC 051433
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052011
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 05 2011

SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. IN FACT...A 1005 UTC AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS THAT THE CENTER IS NOW JUST BENEATH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND. TAFB AND SAB DVORAK FINAL-T
NUMBERS HAVE PLUMMETED TO 3.5 AND 2.5 RESPECTIVELY...AND A 0542 UTC
ASCAT OVERPASS SHOWED A MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF AROUND 50 TO 55 KT.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO A GENEROUS 55 KT BASED ON A
COMPROMISE OF THESE DATA. EUGENE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN QUICKLY AS
THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES COLDER WATER AND AN INCREASINGLY MORE STABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
SHOWS WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS...OR POSSIBLY
EARLIER...AND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE IVCN CONSENSUS MODEL.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING AT A STEADY 285/11...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS. AFTERWARD...A
REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST AS THE WEAKENED SHALLOW
REFLECTION OF EUGENE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. THE
NHC FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE
AND REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL SUITE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 17.9N 123.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 18.5N 125.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 19.1N 127.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 19.6N 129.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 20.1N 131.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/1200Z 20.8N 134.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA
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Re: EPAC: EUGENE - Tropical storm

#98 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 05, 2011 3:40 pm

TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052011
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 05 2011

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY DEGENERATE. A BLEND OF THE
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE INTENSITY ESTIMATION AND BOTH ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB IS USED TO SUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY
TO 50 KT. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL. THROUGH THE
REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER.

EUGENE CONTINUES TO MOVE AT 285/11...AND THIS MOTION SHOULD PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT 24 HR. AFTERWARD...EUGENE SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW AND
TURN A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE WEST WITHIN THE EASTERLY TRADE WIND
FLOW AS CYCLONE BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK
IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS BASED ON THE TVCE
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 18.2N 124.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 18.7N 126.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 19.3N 128.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 19.8N 130.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/1800Z 20.2N 132.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA
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Re: EPAC: EUGENE - Tropical storm

#99 Postby Migle » Fri Aug 05, 2011 6:33 pm

cycloneye wrote: THROUGH THE
REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER.


Looks like they got a little mixed up :lol:
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Re: EPAC: EUGENE - Tropical storm

#100 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 05, 2011 9:35 pm

TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052011
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 05 2011

EUGENE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WIND DOWN OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT AND BECOME SMALLER
IN AREAL COVERAGE. IT IS INTERESTING THAT AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION
HAS WANED...THE OUTER BANDS HAVE BECOME MORE PROMINENT...ALTHOUGH
THE CONVECTION IS BARELY DEEP ENOUGH TO BE DVORAK-CLASSIFIABLE.
HIGH-RESOLUTION ASCAT DATA FROM ABOUT 1800 UTC SUGGESTED THAT THE
MAXIMUM WINDS WERE AT LEAST 45 KT. ASSUMING SOME SPIN DOWN OF THE
SYSTEM SINCE THEN...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 40 KT...ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF THE VARIOUS SATELLITE ESTIMATES. EUGENE SHOULD LOSE
ITS REMAINING CONVECTION TOMORROW AND PROBABLY BE DECLARED A
REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND ASCAT DATA INDICATE THE STORM HAS BEEN
MOVING AT ABOUT 285/12. AS EUGENE WEAKENS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD
TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST AND SLOW DUE TO IT BECOMING A SHALLOW
SYSTEM. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
MOTION...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST TO
BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 18.6N 125.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 18.9N 127.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 19.4N 129.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/1200Z 19.8N 131.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/0000Z 20.0N 133.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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