WPAC: MERBOK - Tropical Storm

[euro6208]

T4.5/4.5 MERBOK

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 952.3mb/ 97.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.4 5.5



based on all data and merbok's overall presentation, i would increase the intensity to 90 knots.

[Chacor]

No idea why JMA refusing to upgrade it. We'll see at the next bulletin in a few minutes.

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 061500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1110 MERBOK (1110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061500UTC 29.8N 153.6E GOOD
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 071500UTC 32.1N 154.8E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 081200UTC 35.2N 158.2E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 091200UTC 40.2N 162.7E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

[supercane]

JMA still classifying this as a STS at 18Z:

WTPQ50 RJTD 061800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1110 MERBOK (1110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061800UTC 30.1N 153.7E GOOD
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 071800UTC 32.6N 155.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 081800UTC 36.8N 159.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 091800UTC 41.8N 164.5E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 101800UTC 47.8N 168.9E 350NM 70%
MOVE NNE 17KT =

WDPN31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (MERBOK)
WARNING NR 14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 12W (MERBOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 800 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR)
SHOWS TY 12W HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING ALONG THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES OF A RAGGED EYE.
A 06/0922Z 91 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATES A WELL-
DEFINED EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANTS. CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
ABOVEMENTIONED IR AND MICROWAVE IMAGES. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS.
06/00Z UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 12W LIES
NORTHEAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AND NORTHWEST OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TY 12W HAS GOOD POLEWARD
AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW. TY 12W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST.
2. A. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RECURVING AROUND THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR INCREASE
SLIGHTLY AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN HIGH, UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE, AND VWS REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE. AFTER
TAU 36 TY MERBOK WILL ENCOUNTER LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, WITH SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASING NORTH OF 33N AND VWS INCREASING AS
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES INCREASE.
C. BY TAU 72, TY 12W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN UNDERGOING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) AND COMPLETE ET BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EGRR,
WHICH CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE FORECASTING THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO.
THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
EGRR.//
NNNN

TPPN12 PGTW 061830
A. TROPICAL STORM 12W (MERBOK)
B. 06/1730Z
C. 30.4N
D. 153.9E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T4.0/4.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. 0.8 CONVECTIVE WRAP ON THE LOG
10 SPIRAL YIEDS A 3.5 PLUS 0.5 FOR A BF ALONG THE N PERIPHERY
OF THE STORM YIELDS A DT OF 4.0. PT AGREES. MET YIELDS A 3.5.
DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
LANZETTA

[supercane]

WTPN31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 12W (MERBOK) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 30.3N 153.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.3N 153.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 32.0N 154.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 33.7N 155.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 35.6N 157.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 38.2N 160.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 44.3N 165.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 53.4N 172.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 30.7N 154.1E.
TYPHOON (TY) 12W (MERBOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 775 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED JUST EAST OF NORTHWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TY 12W HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG
ITS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES AS IT BEGAN TO ROUND THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 061618Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTING A
NOTCH OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
77 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 12W LIES NORTHEAST OF
A CYCLONE AND NORTHWEST OF A RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF LOW (10-15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TY 12W HAS MAINTAINED GOOD POLEWARD AND EASTWARD
OUTFLOW. TY MERBOK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RECURVING AROUND THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE DURING
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) REMAIN HIGH, UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS
FAVORABLE, AND VWS REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS SST'S DECREASE AND VWS INCREASES WITH THE
ONSET OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. BY TAU 72, TY 12W IS EXPECTED
TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) AND COMPLETE ET BY TAU 96.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH ONE MINOR
DEVIATION - GFS ABRUPTLY DEFLECTS THE VORTEX 30 DEGREES LEFT OF THE
ENVELOPE AT TAU 72. THIS FORECAST TRACK IS DIRECTLY OVER BUT FASTER
THAN CONSENSUS AND THEN SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET GFS'S
UNLIKELY DEVIATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS
27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MUIFA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 062100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1110 MERBOK (1110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 062100UTC 30.5N 153.7E GOOD
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 072100UTC 33.5N 155.8E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 081800UTC 36.8N 159.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 091800UTC 41.8N 164.5E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

So, which smart alec changed this topic's title to "Typhoon" this time? How many times must the WPAC be treated like this? The JTWC is not official.

[supercane]

And JMA still keeps this as a STS at 00Z:
WTPQ20 RJTD 070000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1110 MERBOK (1110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070000UTC 30.9N 154.0E GOOD
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 080000UTC 34.4N 156.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 090000UTC 39.4N 161.0E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 100000UTC 44.6N 164.8E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

TPPN12 PGTW 070049 COR
A. TYPHOON 12W (MUIFA)
B. 06/2330Z
C. 30.8N
D. 154E
E. FOUR/MTSAT
F. T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE W/ SURR CONVECTION
MG YIELDS A DT OF 4.5 W/ NO OTHER ADUSTMENTS. PT AGREES. MET
YIELDS A 4.0. DBO DT. COR FOR MISSING DVORAK ENTERIES
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
06/2001Z 30.5N 153.7E AMSU
LANZETTA

TXPQ21 KNES 062155
TCSWNP
A. 12W (MERBOK)
B. 06/2057Z
C. 30.5N
D. 153.7E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T4.0/4.5/S0.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSRE
H. REMARKS...RECENT 2001Z SSMIS PASS SUGGESTS LLCC NEAR 30.7N
-153.7E. WEAK REMNANT OF WESTERN EYE WALL STILL EXISTS WITH MOST DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE EAST. EMBEDDED CENTER OF DG YIELDS DT OF 4.0. MET =
3.5 AND PT = 4.0. 12W APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST
6HRS. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
06/1542Z 30.1N 153.4E AMSRE
...GUILLOT

[supercane]

JTWC 03Z advisory out early, up to 80kt:
WTPN31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 12W (MERBOK) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 31.0N 154.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.0N 154.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 32.6N 155.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 34.4N 156.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 36.8N 158.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 39.7N 161.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 46.7N 166.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 57.0N 174.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 31.4N 154.3E.
TYPHOON 12W (MERBOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 760 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED JUST EAST OF NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z
IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W (MUIFA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[KWT]

Personally now feel 80kts is too high. I'd say it peaked at 75kts, currently maybe 65kts...

Amazed the JMA never upgraded it!

[supercane]

WTPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 12W (MERBOK) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 32.4N 154.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.4N 154.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 34.3N 156.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 36.7N 158.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 39.3N 160.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 43.1N 163.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 51.2N 169.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 32.9N 154.8E.
TYPHOON (TY) 12W (MERBOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750 NM EAST OF
TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 25
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL STORM 11W (MUIFA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.
//
NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 12W (MERBOK) WARNING NR 18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 12W (MERBOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750 NM EAST
OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION
ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. A 07/0910Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION
IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. A BAND OF CONVECTION IS ALSO CURVING INTO
THE EASTERN HALF OF TY 12W, AND NO CONVECTION IS EVIDENT IN THE
WESTERN OR SOUTHERN HALVES. CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
ABOVEMENTIONED IR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES RANGING FROM
55 TO 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR
ENTRAINING FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST, RESULTING IN DECREASED
CONVECTION IN ALL BUT THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. 07/00Z UPPER LEVEL
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 12W IS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IN A REGION OF MODERATE (20 TO 30
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
2. A. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TY MERBOCK IS TRACKING AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-LATITUDES. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE DECREASING IN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 48 AS
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) DECREASE TO BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS,
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW DECREASES, AND VWS INCREASES. TY 12W IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) BY TAU 48 AND COMPLETE ET BY
TAU 72.
C. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, WITH EGRR
NOW CLOSER IN LINE WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THIS
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS SLIGHTLY FASTER
THAN CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR KNOWN MODEL TENDENCIES TO SLOW DOWN
POST RECURVATURE.
//
NNNN

TXPQ21 KNES 071524
TCSWNP
A. 12W (MERBOK)
B. 07/1457Z
C. 33.0N
D. 154.5E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T2.5/3.0/W1.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS/AMSU/TMI
H. REMARKS...NEW BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION ON POLEWARD SIDE OF LLC HAS
TYPICAL SHEAR PATTERN OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE UNDERGOING ET...AS LLC IS
MOVING NEWARD NOW AND NE QUAD FLOW IS CONVERGING IN THE LOW LEVELS.
STILL LLC IS WELL EXPOSED AND IS .67 DEGREES FROM THE CONVECTION FOR DT
OF 2.5. MET IS 2.5. PT IS 2.5. CI IS HELD AT 3.0 PER WEAKENING RULES. FT
IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
07/0910Z 32.0N 153.9E SSMIS
07/0943Z 32.1N 153.8E AMSU
07/1108Z 32.3N 154.0E TMI
...GALLINA

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 071800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1110 MERBOK (1110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071800UTC 33.1N 155.5E FAIR
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 200NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 081800UTC 37.9N 159.5E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 091800UTC 42.5N 163.5E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

TPPN12 PGTW 071812
A. TYPHOON 12W (MERBOK)
B. 07/1730Z
C. 33.0N
D. 155.0E
E. FOUR/MTSAT
F. T3.5/4.0/W0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. 20NM OF CONVECTIVE SHEAR
MEASURED FROM THE EXPOSED LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. MET AGREES.
PT YIELDS A 3.0. DBO DT
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
LANZETTA

[supercane]

WTPN31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 12W (MERBOK) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 33.1N 155.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.1N 155.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 35.2N 156.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 37.9N 159.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 40.9N 161.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 44.4N 164.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 54.0N 170.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 33.6N 155.5E.
TYPHOON (TY) 12W (MERBOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 770 NM EAST OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
BECOME ELONGATED TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE ONSLAUGHT OF MODERATE
TO STRONG (20-30 KNOT) SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE, ALBEIT DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST, REMAINS
INTACT WITH REMNANT DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLANK. THIS
IS EVIDENT ON A 271607Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES, PGTW, AND RJTD
RANGING FROM 55-77 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 12W IS
NOW MOVING PARALLEL TO THE FORWARD SLOPE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
DIGGING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS ALL BUT
EXTINGUISHED WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE HAS COMPLETED ROUNDING THE NORTHWEST BOUNDARY
OF THE STEERING DEEP-LAYERED SUTBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST AND
SHOULD BEGIN ACCELERATING ALONG ITS CURRENT TRACK. DETERIOTATING
CONDITIONS - INCREASING VWS (OVER 30 KNOTS), COOLING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (BELOW 26 CELSIUS), AND DIMINISHING OUTFLOW - WILL
ENSURE GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL,
BECOMING FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BY TAU 72. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH ONE
SOLE OUTLIER AT THE EXTENDED TAUS - GFS DEVIATES ABRUPTLY LEFT OF
THE MODEL ENVELOPE. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS OVER BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER
THAN CONSENSUS THEN TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 48 TO OFFSET
GFS'S UNLIKELY PULL TO THE LEFT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
071800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND
082100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W (MUIFA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 080000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1110 MERBOK (1110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080000UTC 34.0N 156.2E FAIR
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 200NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 090000UTC 39.0N 160.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 100000UTC 43.2N 164.3E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

WTPN31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 12W (MERBOK) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 34.3N 156.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.3N 156.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 37.3N 158.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 40.7N 161.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 45.2N 165.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 50.5N 168.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 35.1N 156.8E.
TYPHOON 12W (MERBOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 815 NM E OF YOKOSUKA,
JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 27 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 11W (MUIFA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 12W (MERBOK) WARNING NR 20//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 12W (MERBOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 815 NM EAST
OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS ACCELERATED NORTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A BAND OF CONVECTION HAS REGENERATED ALONG THE NORTHERN ARC OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME ELONGATED TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH THE ONSLAUGHT OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOT)
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE,
ALBEIT DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST, REMAINS WELL-DEFINED AND INTACT.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES, PGTW, AND RJTD
RANGING FROM 55-77 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 12W IS
NOW MOVING PARALLEL TO THE FORWARD SLOPE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
DIGGING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS ALL BUT
EXTINGUISHED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE HAS COMPLETED ROUNDING THE NORTHWEST BOUNDARY
OF THE STEERING DEEP-LAYERED SUTBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND HAS BEGUN ACCELERATING ALONG ITS CURRENT TRACK.
2. A. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. DETERIOTATING CONDITIONS - INCREASING VWS (OVER 30 KNOTS),
COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (BELOW 26 CELSIUS), AND DIMINISHING
OUTFLOW - WILL ENSURE GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES
EXTRATROPICAL, BECOMING FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BY
TAU 48. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT
WITH WBAR AS THE SOLE RIGHT OUTLIER AND GFDN AND NOGAPS DEVIATING TO
THE LEFT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE AFTER TAU 36. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY LEFT AND FASTER THAN CONSENSUS THEN TO THE RIGHT OF
CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 36 TO OFFSET THE OUTLIERS.//
NNNN

TPPN12 PGTW 080039
A. TYPHOON 12W (MERBOK)
B. 07/2330Z
C. 34.1N
D. 156.3E
E. SIX/MTSAT
F. T3.5/4.0/W0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. .8 CONVECTIVE WRAP ON
THE LOG 10 SPIRAL PLUS .5 FOR A BF YIELDS A 4.0. MET YIELDS A
3.5. PT AGREES. DBO MET.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
LANZETTA

[euro6208]

ever since this system was named, i always thought of a pokemon named arbok. arbok is a large purple cobra who is owned by team rocket. merbok is now racing out to the open pacific and is of no threat to anyone...

[supercane]

JMA still writing advisories on this at 00Z:

WTPQ20 RJTD 090000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1110 MERBOK (1110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090000UTC 40.4N 160.6E FAIR
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 100000UTC 44.4N 164.2E 85NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
JTWC wrote its last at 21Z:

WTPN31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (MERBOK) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 39.2N 160.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 39.2N 160.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 41.9N 162.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 44.4N 165.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 39.9N 160.9E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (MERBOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 825
NM SOUTH OF PETROPAVLOVSK, RUSSIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE 08/12Z ANALYSES INDICATE
THAT TS 12W IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS (OVER
COLD SST < 24C) AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE 1000/500MB THICKNESS
SHOWS A CLEAR FRONTAL SIGNATURE EVIDENCED IN THE ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY, DEEP CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY
WEAKENED NEAR THE CENTER. A 081555Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED 150-180NM NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OF THE FULLY-
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH COOL/DRY AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45-55 KNOTS
AND THE 0951Z ASCAT DATA. TS 12W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD BUT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW SLIGHTLY AS IT COMPLETES
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND OCCLUDES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN).
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 21 FEET.//
NNNN
Looking pretty bare on IR:

[supercane]

Latest vis shows only low clouds remain:

Latest ASCAT shows still formidable wind field:

Was still warm core at 18Z, awaiting 00Z analysis:

[supercane]

JMA still issuing advisories:

WTPQ20 RJTD 091500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1110 MERBOK (1110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091500UTC 42.1N 163.6E FAIR
MOVE ENE 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 270NM SOUTHEAST 200NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 101500UTC 47.4N 166.8E 85NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
Latest IR:

Latest ASCAT:

Latest phase diagram from PSU still showing some warm core with this, an example of what NHC calls post-tropical but not all the way extra-tropical:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/11080906/3.html
Updated to fix above url

[supercane]

JMA writes final advisory on Merbok, now extratropical:

WTPQ20 RJTD 091800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPED LOW FORMER TS 1110 MERBOK (1110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091800UTC 43N 164E
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 988HPA
MXWD 040KT
30KT 300NM =