WPAC: MERBOK - Tropical Storm

[dexterlabio]

Very familiar names... Muifa, then now Merbok... These were the names of storms that caused widespread destruction in 2004...then the other one if becomes a TS will be named Nanmadol, completing the same league of consecutive TC's of that year...

[dexterlabio]

This system seems to have a very wide area of rotation, and that mass of deep convection clearly rotating around a center...same appearance with Meari last June...
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/guamloops/guamir.html

It also looks like Otto, the subtropical storm in the ATL last year.

[KWT]

Looking very good today, trying to wrap the convection around itself at the moment.

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 031200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1110 MERBOK (1110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031200UTC 23.7N 160.0E FAIR
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 200NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 041200UTC 25.2N 156.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 051200UTC 26.5N 154.4E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 061200UTC 29.6N 153.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (MERBOK) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 23.5N 159.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 23.5N 159.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 24.2N 157.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 25.2N 156.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 26.2N 155.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 27.3N 154.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 29.6N 153.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 32.5N 155.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 35.5N 157.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 23.7N 158.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 12W (MERBOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MUIFA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (MERBOK) WARNING NR
02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM 12W (MERBOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WRAPPING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST. A 03/1134Z TRMM 85 GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE
AND A 03/0753Z 91 GHZ SSMIS ALSO SHOW THIS CONVECTION ALONG THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS OF TD 12W. TD 12W IS SLOWLY
TRANSITIONING FROM A SUBTROPICAL TO A TROPICAL SYSTEM AS VIGOROUS
OUTFLOW HAS ALLOWED CONVECTION TO PERSIST AND WINDS TO INCREASE NEAR
THE LLCC. THIS PERSISTENT CONVECTION HAS RESULTED IN A WEAK WARM
CORE DEVELOPING, APPARENT ON A 03/0238Z TEMPERATURE ANOMALY CROSS
SECTION. INCREASING WINDS NEAR THE LLCC HAVE LIKELY EXTENDED OUTWARD
TO THE GRADIENT LEVEL WINDS DEPICTED ON A 02/2238Z ASCAT PASS,
FURTHER ENHANCING THE TRANSITION FROM A SUBTROPICAL TO TROPICAL
SYSTEM. UPPER AIR STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 12W LIES JUST
SOUTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF MODERATE (20-
30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
EXCELLENT MERIDIONAL OUTFLOW INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
(TUTT) CELL TO THE EAST WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
AS WELL. A LARGE CHANNEL OF DRY AIR IS WRAPPING AROUND TD 12W AND IS
INHIBITING CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE ABOVE IR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS.
2. A. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. DURING THE NEXT 12-72 HOURS, TS 12W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARDLY ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO
MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NORTHEAST. INTENSIFICATION
IS EXPECTED AS 12W REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 12W IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY AND
THEN NORTHEASTERLY AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS. INTENSITY WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN A REGION WITH DECREASED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT, WITH GFS AS A
WESTERN OUTLIER. THIS FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS.
//
NNNN



now forecast to become a typhoon but no threat to anyone...

T3.0/3.0 98W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.3 / 999.8mb/ 33.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.3 2.3 2.3

Weakening Flag : OFF

[phwxenthusiast]

totally exposed right now...

[supercane]

03Z advisory out early:
WTPN31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (MERBOK) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 24.3N 158.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.3N 158.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 25.4N 157.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 26.5N 156.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 27.8N 155.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 29.9N 155.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 34.0N 157.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 35.4N 159.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 39.3N 165.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 24.6N 158.1E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (MERBOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 16
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MUIFA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (MERBOK) WARNING NR
04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (MERBOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS INCREASED ORGANIZATION AND DEEPENING CONVECTION OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS FULLY EXPOSED,
SURROUNDED BY DISCONTINUOUS RINGS OF DEEP CONVECTION. A 032024Z
SSMIS 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS IN ALL BUT THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS THICK CURVED BANDING
AROUND THE PERIMETER OF THE LLCC WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT. TS 12W ORIGINATED AS A DISTAL LOW, BUILDING DOWN FROM A
TUTT CELL, BUT THE LATEST AMSU TEMPERATURE PROFILE SHOWS A CLEAR
WARM ANOMALY IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS. DESPITE ITS TRANSITION TO A WARM
CORE SYSTEM, A 030954Z ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM. THE STRONGEST BAND OF
WINDS IS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, AN EFFECT OF GRADIENT
COMPRESSION BETWEEN TY 11W AND A 1022MB HIGH CENTERED AT 37N 167E.
PREVIOUS WATER VAPOR AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS SHOWED A
LARGE CHANNEL OF DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND TS 12W AND INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT, BUT RECENT FRAMES SHOW THAT THE DRY CHANNEL
HAS BECOME SATURATED AND 12W IS ENSCONCED FROM THE OUTER
ENVIRONMENT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILLS SHOWS SUPPRESSION
OF OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT, WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW ON
THE EASTERN FLANK.
2. A. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TS 12W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARDLY ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS ANCHORED
BY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DIRECTLY TO ITS NORTH. A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH DIVING OVER THE KURILS WILL CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE,
ALLOWING TS 11W TO MAKE A POLEWARD TURN BEGINNING NEAR TAU 36. WARM
WATERS AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW THE STORM TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFICATION UNTIL IT CLEARS 35 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND BEGINS
TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS.
C. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BEGIN NEAR TAU 96 (34 DEGREES
NORTH LATITUDE). THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH A STEEP DROP-OFF IN SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TS 12W WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION INTO A STORM
FORCE MID-LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, COMPLETING THE PROCESS BY
TAU 120.//
NNNN

[supercane]

JMA 00Z advisory transmitted late but here:
WTPQ50 RJTD 040000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1110 MERBOK (1110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040000UTC 24.5N 158.4E FAIR
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 200NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 050000UTC 26.8N 156.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 060000UTC 29.5N 156.3E 110NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 070000UTC 32.2N 158.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 080000UTC 36.0N 161.9E 280NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
120HF 090000UTC 41.7N 166.6E 375NM 70%
MOVE NNE 17KT =

Latest JTWC Dvorak estimate at 45kt:
TPPN12 PGTW 040033
A. TROPICAL STORM 12W (MERBOK)
B. 03/2330Z
C. 24.4N
D. 158.3E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T3.0/3.0/D3.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. .5 WRAP ON THE LOG 10
SPIRAL YIELDS A 2.5 PLUS .5 FOR BF FOR A TOTAL DT OF 3.0. PT
AGREES. MET YIELDS A 1.5 BUT IS UNREPRESENTIVE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
UEHARA

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 040600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1110 MERBOK (1110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040600UTC 24.7N 157.2E FAIR
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 050600UTC 26.9N 156.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 060600UTC 29.4N 155.7E 110NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 070600UTC 31.7N 156.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

[Chacor]

WTPN31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (MERBOK) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 24.9N 156.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.9N 156.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 26.1N 155.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 27.2N 154.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 28.5N 154.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 29.5N 153.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 31.8N 154.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 35.2N 157.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 39.8N 162.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 25.2N 156.4E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (MERBOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 655 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
041200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND
051500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MUIFA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (MERBOK) WARNING NR
06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (MERBOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 655 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEVELOPING CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER AN ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 041038Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER SURROUNDED BY MINIMAL DEEP
CONVECTION. A 041115Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH 35
KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE AND WEAKER 25 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
WESTERN SIDE. WATER VAPOR AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS
INDICATE A LARGE CHANNEL OF DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND TS 12W AND INTO
THE NORTHERN TO WESTERN PERIPHERIES. A 040200Z AMSU CROSS-SECTION
INDICATES THE WARM CORE ANOMALY HAS MOVED LOWER IN THE ATMOSPHERE
AND IS NOW AT 4 TO 5 KM. TS 12W IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH, BUT MAINTAINS A GOOD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO
THE EAST. TS 12W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE.
2. A. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE
STEERING RIDGE AND ALLOW TS 12W TO TURN POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND STEADILY
INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72, DUE TO HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 12W SHOULD CONTINUE TO ROUND THE STEERING
RIDGE AXIS AND INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. IT IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING DUE TO DECREASED SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERLIES. TS 12W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96 AND FULLY TRANSITION INTO A
STRONG EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR GFDN AND NOGAPS, WHICH TRACK THE SYSTEM
FARTHER WESTWARD BEFORE SHARPLY TURNING NORTHEASTWARD. THIS FORECAST
IS TO THE RIGHT AND FASTER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
MODEL ERRORS.//
NNNN

[KWT]

Well a slight come down in expected strength, back down to something close to the orginal forecast but still expected to reach 65kts I see...

[euro6208]

huge burst of convection. go merbok!!!

[Fyzn94]

If this isn't another typhoon in the making, I don't know what is.

[supercane]

WTPQ50 RJTD 050000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1110 MERBOK (1110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050000UTC 25.5N 155.2E FAIR
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 200NM NORTH 140NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 060000UTC 27.1N 153.3E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 070000UTC 28.6N 151.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 080000UTC 30.4N 152.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 090000UTC 34.4N 155.1E 350NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
120HF 100000UTC 39.1N 160.9E 450NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT =

TPPN12 PGTW 050035
A. TROPICAL STORM 12W (MERBOK)
B. 04/2330Z
C. 26.4N
D. 155.6E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .70 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. PT AND MET YIELD A 3.5. DBO PT AND
MET.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
04/1847Z 24.9N 156.9E SSMS
04/1950Z 25.8N 156.1E WIND
04/2011Z 26.1N 155.8E SSMS
04/2148Z 26.3N 155.6E AMSU
04/2215Z 26.4N 155.4E SSMS
UEHARA

[euro6208]

merbok looks so healthy this morning

WTPN31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (MERBOK) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 25.4N 156.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.4N 156.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 26.6N 155.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 27.7N 154.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 28.9N 154.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 30.1N 154.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 32.6N 155.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 36.0N 159.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 40.7N 165.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 25.7N 155.9E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (MERBOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 675 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
BETTER ORGANIZATION AND MORE EXTENSIVE CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS, BUT INTENSITY ESTIMATES VIA DVORAK ANALYSIS HAVE NOT CHANGED.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES ESTIMATES OF 35
KNOTS. A 37 GHZ 041804Z SSMI IMAGE SHOWS THICK LOW LEVEL BANDING
ALONG AN EAST-WEST AXIS BUT A LACK OF BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN QUADRANTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS BOTH SHOW SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING CONVECTION
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, BUT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.
THE MID-LEVEL WARM ANOMALY SHOWING ON AMSU TEMPERATURE PROFILES
YESTERDAY HAS COOLED AND SANK TO LOWER LEVELS, INDICATING A
WEAKENING TREND IN THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM. TS 12W IS STEERING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS ANCHORED
BY AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 36N 170E. A DEEP MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE
CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER NORTH KOREA IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE RIDGE,
CREATING A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONE AND
ANOTHER OVER TOKYO, ALLOWING TS 12W AN ALLEY TO RECURVE INTO THE
WESTERLIES. PEAK INTENSITY WILL COME NEAR TAU 72, JUST AS TS 12W
ROUNDS THE RIDGE. THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE THAT TS 12W WILL UNDERGO
A SLOW EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION TO A STORM FORCE MID-LATITUDE LOW
AFTER ROUNDING THE RIDGE. NOGAPS AND GFDN KEEP TS 12W RUNNING
WESTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, OTHERWISE GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. THE JTWC FORECAST STAYS EAST OF AND FASTER THAN
CONSENSUS IN ORDER TO COMPENSATE FOR THE INFLUENCE OF NOGAPS AND
GFDN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON
11W (MUIFA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

T3.5/3.5 MERBOK

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 984.1mb/ 57.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.6 3.8 3.8

all agencies agree that this is stronger than 35 knots than what jtwc is calling. let's see what they have to say

[supercane]

03Z 5 Aug 2011 JTWC advisory out:
WTPN31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (MERBOK) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 26.3N 155.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.3N 155.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 27.6N 154.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 28.7N 153.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 30.1N 153.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 31.6N 154.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 33.9N 156.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 37.7N 160.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 42.4N 167.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 26.6N 155.1E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (MERBOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM
NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 16
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z. REFER
TO TYPHOON 11W (MUIFA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (MERBOK) WARNING NR
08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (MERBOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM
NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE CONVECTION IS ORGANIZING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ANALYSIS OF
45 KNOTS. A 042215Z SSMI IMAGE CONFIRMS THE INCREASED INTENSITY. TS
12W IS ORGANIZING ALONG AN EAST TO WEST AXIS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ON
BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTH PERIMETERS OF THE SYSTEM. OUTFLOW IS
IMPROVING, HOWEVER, AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST IS SETTING UP A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TS 12W IS
STEERING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE,
WHICH IS ANCHORED BY AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 36N 170E.
2. A. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. ENHANCED OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW TS 12 TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE. A DEEP MID-LATITUDE SHORT
WAVE CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER NORTH KOREA IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE
RIDGE, CREATING A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE OCEANIC ANTICYCLONE AND THE
WESTERN 500MB HEIGHT CENTER OVER TOKYO, ALLOWING TS 12W AN ALLEY TO
RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES. PEAK INTENSITY WILL OCCUR BETWEEN TAU
48 AND TAU 72, JUST AS TS 12W ROUNDS THE RIDGE.
C. THICKNESS PROGS ARE CONSISTENT IN INDICATING THAT TS 12W WILL
UNDERGO A VERY GRADUAL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION INTO A STORM FORCE
MID-LATITUDE LOW AFTER ROUNDING THE RIDGE. NOGAPS AND GFDN HAD
PREVIOUSLY KEPT TS 12W ON A WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST BUT ARE NOW COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH OTHER GUIDANCE. BOTH
MODELS STILL GO FARTHER WEST BEFORE RECURVING, HOWEVER, WHICH IS
SKEWING CONSENSUS. THE JTWC FORECAST STAYS EAST OF AND FASTER THAN
CONSENSUS IN ORDER TO COMPENSATE FOR THE INFLUENCE OF NOGAPS AND
GFDN.//
NNNN

[Chacor]

WTPQ50 RJTD 050600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1110 MERBOK (1110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050600UTC 26.8N 155.3E FAIR
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 200NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 060600UTC 28.7N 153.3E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 070600UTC 30.4N 151.8E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 080600UTC 32.6N 153.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 090600UTC 35.7N 157.5E 280NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
120HF 100600UTC 40.2N 163.2E 375NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT =

[KWT]

This system is getting there I think, I see no real reason why it won't be a TY some point in the near future.

[underthwx]

yall dont need any new storms right now! Muifa is enough for the whole season.

[Chacor]

Up to 45 kt, on verge of STS...
WTPQ20 RJTD 051200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1110 MERBOK (1110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051200UTC 27.3N 154.8E FAIR
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 200NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 061200UTC 29.4N 153.3E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 071200UTC 31.1N 152.8E 110NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 081200UTC 34.0N 155.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =