EPAC: INVEST 97E

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KMIA 021602
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1602 UTC TUE AUG 2 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP972011) 20110802 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110802  1200   110803  0000   110803  1200   110804  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.5N  95.4W   13.6N  96.6W   13.7N  97.8W   13.7N  99.1W
BAMD    13.5N  95.4W   13.3N  97.0W   13.1N  98.7W   13.0N 100.5W
BAMM    13.5N  95.4W   13.7N  97.1W   13.9N  98.6W   14.2N 100.1W
LBAR    13.5N  95.4W   13.4N  96.8W   13.9N  98.4W   14.8N 100.5W
SHIP        25KTS          30KTS          36KTS          42KTS
DSHP        25KTS          30KTS          36KTS          42KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110804  1200   110805  1200   110806  1200   110807  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.9N 100.6W   14.1N 103.9W   14.7N 107.7W   15.5N 111.1W
BAMD    12.6N 102.6W   11.5N 107.5W    9.8N 113.4W    8.0N 120.3W
BAMM    14.5N 101.6W   14.9N 105.0W   15.2N 109.0W   15.4N 112.7W
LBAR    15.9N 102.7W   18.3N 107.4W   20.0N 111.6W   21.3N 115.7W
SHIP        48KTS          58KTS          58KTS          58KTS
DSHP        48KTS          58KTS          58KTS          58KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.5N LONCUR =  95.4W DIRCUR = 220DEG SPDCUR =   6KT
LATM12 =  14.4N LONM12 =  94.5W DIRM12 = 220DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
LATM24 =  15.1N LONM24 =  93.7W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   25NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD =  175NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN



[Yellow Evan]

looks ok.

[HURAKAN]

909
ABPZ20 KNHC 021735
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE AUG 2 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
EUGENE...LOCATED ABOUT 490 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

AN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 155 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE LOW IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND IT
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
INCREASE IN A DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD NEAR 5 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[HURAKAN]

models

[KWT]

That BAMD track is a good laugh!

[Macrocane]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 022059
TWOEP

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 2 2011

SPECIAL OUTLOOK TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF THE SYSTEM LOCATED SOUTH OF
PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO.

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
EUGENE...LOCATED ABOUT 535 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

UPDATED...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN

[KWT]

Well looks like this system has a reasonable shot at becoming the EPAC's next system, and if it does form, can it make it 6 out of 6.

[Yellow Evan]

I doubt it. Shear will be 15 to 20 knts soon over the system. But, IVCN disagrees with me.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE AUG 2 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
EUGENE...LOCATED ABOUT 535 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO HAVE NOT
BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER
...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[Cyclenall]

This caught my eye yesterday morning because it looked very good for a brand new cluster of thunderstorms. Then early Tuesday afternoon when it persisted and became better organized I knew it wasn't far off. Best case scenario with this: stays westwards and bombs out. Make it 6/6 for the Epac. Maybe the shear won't increase or it will be like Hurricane Eugene...doesn't affect it.

That BAMD track is a good laugh!

Not really, it's not impossible for it to actually take that track but it would be very rare and most likely become overwhelmed in the ITCZ at some point.

I doubt it. Shear will be 15 to 20 knts soon over the system. But, IVCN disagrees with me.

I don't (the first line). Hurricane Eugene had the same amount of wind shear on it during it's life thus far and it steadily strengthened all the way up to major. 97E would also be over warmer waters than Eugene for the most part if it takes a due west-like track. Also notice how the NHC stopped mentioning the increase in wind shear in 97E's way during the last 3 TWO's.

[Yellow Evan]

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED ABOUT 210 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM NOW HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.

[supercane]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 032332
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED AUG 3 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
EUGENE...LOCATED ABOUT 595 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS LESS LIKELY AS
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

WTPN21 PHNC 032230
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.7N 97.1W TO 15.0N 103.4W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY
AT 032200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N
98.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER(LLCC) WITH A SYMMETRIC AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE LLCC. A 031537Z AMSU IMAGE SHOWS
FORMATIVE BANDING DEVELOPING AROUND THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A
031540Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 15-20 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN
QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
042230Z.//
NNNN

[Florida1118]

1. SHOWERS ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS CONDUCIVE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS
A RESULT...THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.

Its dead.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks a little better than late last night

[KWT]

Looks like its got a decent chance of development at the moment, though the 00z ECM doesn't do much with it.

[Yellow Evan]

While convection has made a comeback, it is now at 10%.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH OF
ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY JUST OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
NEAR 10 MPH.

[Yellow Evan]

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY JUST OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.