WPAC: INVEST 90W

[dexterlabio]

With Muifa and Merbok still kicking in the Western Pacific...

90WINVEST.15kts-1010mb
117N-1426E

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.7N 142.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 175 NM SOUTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AIR FORCE BASE, GUAM.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISPLACED DEEP CONVECTION TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. A 042344Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS THE LLCC
WITH WEAK 5- TO 10-KNOT EASTERLIES ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND
STRONGER 15- TO 20-KNOT WESTERLIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

[underthwx]

With Muifa and Merbok still kicking in the Western Pacific...

90WINVEST.15kts-1010mb
117N-1426E

dont need any more storms in your vicinity for awhile....not after Typhoon Muifa...

[StormingB81]

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 13N 143E NORTH SLOWLY.

Wih all the upwell from Muifa..It looks like it may not have a fighting chance

[dexterlabio]

not much model supporting its development, though some shows formation of a weak system.

[dexterlabio]

This became a nice blob. Though remains very disorganized to look at, in my opinion...


(the one on the left is 90W)

[StormingB81]

Nice....



But with Muifa sosoon I dont think it would be able to develop it..would it? ECMWF hints at something but diappears before it hits Okinawa.

[StormingB81]

Nice....



But with Muifa sosoon I dont think it would be able to develop it..would it? ECMWF hints at something but diappears before it hits Okinawa.

[StormingB81]

Look how much Mufia cooled the waters!



This one may have no chance! How long would it take to warm up?

[Chacor]

26°C is more than enough to sustain a hurricane/typhoon.

[StormingB81]

So we might have even more fun...We may not even be fully dry from this one..

[dexterlabio]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.6N
142.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 137.0E, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM WEST
OF ANDERSEN AB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES OF
A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 06/0041Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWS 10-15 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LLCC WITH ONLY
5-10 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN HALF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL AND NORTHWEST OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND FAVORABLE (10-15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.


************************

Yeah euro shows a closed system running towards Okinawa, but I suppose they mean a weak one. Too early to tell if it will stay weak like that but considering the environment around it up to the north, I have to agree that development wouldn't be that aggressive, if not too slow...

[StormingB81]

Still not jumping on...looks like it may make for just a rainy day..after the last few days I dont kow how much rain this island can take

[StormingB81]

I am confused..91w is off and now 92w is up in almost the same spot?

[dexterlabio]

90W gone and replaced by 92W. Please conserve invest numbers. lol kidding.