ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

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OuterBanker
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#281 Postby OuterBanker » Wed Aug 10, 2011 7:27 pm

BTW, has there ever been a study for accuracy two weeks in advance.

In other words, has any model ever been right two weeks out?
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Re:

#282 Postby Florida1118 » Wed Aug 10, 2011 7:27 pm

OuterBanker wrote:LOL, I just saw the 18z GFS. Seems a double threat. 92L making a crazy loop off Fl through Fl and into Pensacola. 93L slams into the NC coast. Wishcasters heaven (if we only could get something into TX too).

Should I post this in both?

Yeah they did a nice Fuji dance didnt they... :)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#283 Postby Macrocane » Wed Aug 10, 2011 7:40 pm

HurricaneFan wrote:Why is 92L moving slow when compared to pass Tropical Waves?Earlier Tropical Waves were moving 15 to 20mph and even 20 to 25mph,but 92L is only moving 10 to 15mph.


I may be wrong but I think is in part due to a weaker subtropical ridge than what we've normally seen this season.
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Re: Re:

#284 Postby Macrocane » Wed Aug 10, 2011 7:42 pm

Florida1118 wrote:Yeah they did a nice Fuji dance didnt they... :)


Yep it seems that way, it would be nice to see that in the Atlantic, it usually happens in the WPAC and SPAC but it's more rare in this part of the world.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#285 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 10, 2011 7:56 pm

00z Best Track

AL, 92, 2011081100, , BEST, 0, 127N, 314W, 25, 1010, LO
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#286 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 10, 2011 7:58 pm

00z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 110055
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0055 UTC THU AUG 11 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922011) 20110811 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110811 0000 110811 1200 110812 0000 110812 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.7N 31.4W 13.7N 33.8W 14.7N 36.8W 15.6N 40.3W
BAMD 12.7N 31.4W 13.7N 34.2W 14.6N 37.3W 15.4N 40.8W
BAMM 12.7N 31.4W 13.9N 34.0W 15.0N 37.1W 15.9N 40.7W
LBAR 12.7N 31.4W 13.5N 34.0W 14.7N 37.2W 15.6N 40.9W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110813 0000 110814 0000 110815 0000 110816 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.6N 44.0W 19.5N 52.4W 22.9N 60.6W 26.5N 67.5W
BAMD 16.3N 44.3W 18.2N 50.8W 20.4N 55.8W 22.6N 60.7W
BAMM 17.0N 44.7W 19.4N 52.6W 21.8N 59.6W 24.3N 66.1W
LBAR 16.7N 44.8W 18.8N 52.4W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 46KTS 54KTS 53KTS 55KTS
DSHP 46KTS 54KTS 53KTS 55KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.7N LONCUR = 31.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 12.2N LONM12 = 30.6W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 12.2N LONM24 = 28.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 275NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



Image
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#287 Postby floridasun78 » Wed Aug 10, 2011 8:35 pm

i saw on gfs i say wow do you all think gfs gone wild?
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#288 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Wed Aug 10, 2011 8:39 pm

Love it...let's have fun watching this season, but, keep it like last year....all out to sea! 8-)
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Re:

#289 Postby Macrocane » Wed Aug 10, 2011 8:46 pm

Sean in New Orleans wrote:Love it...let's have fun watching this season, but, keep it like last year....all out to sea! 8-)


Well...all out see may not be the best way to describe last season, several storms made landfall in Canada, Mexico, the Caribbean and Central America :wink: But I agree about us weather enthusiasts having fun watching the season as it seems the busisest part is about to begin.
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#290 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 10, 2011 8:58 pm

Hi folks, the GFS is quite entertaining I must admit. But it's only one model and only one run.

Don't forget the ECMWF is not nearly as enthusiastic with little to no development with either invest. In fact it has consistently kept a large break in the subtropical ridge off of Eastern North America through 240 hours and a strong trough digging at 192 hours.

The GFS has no consistency at this point.

Things are so far out at this point, I put just about no faith in the long-range GFS or any model for that matter.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#291 Postby djmikey » Wed Aug 10, 2011 9:07 pm

Can someone post the link or pic of the 18z gfs? Thanks
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Re:

#292 Postby 'CaneFreak » Wed Aug 10, 2011 9:15 pm

Good point...but the trends from BOTH models suggest that if there is a system out there next week, it will likely move west and will not likely curve out to sea...even the ensemble means are suggesting that as well...no denying that fact :wink:

gatorcane wrote:Hi folks, the GFS is quite entertaining I must admit. But it's only one model and only one run.

Don't forget the ECMWF is not nearly as enthusiastic with little to no development with either invest. In fact it has consistently kept a large break in the subtropical ridge off of Eastern North America through 240 hours and a strong trough digging at 192 hours.

The GFS has no consistency at this point.

Things are so far out at this point, I put just about no faith in the long-range GFS or any model for that matter.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#293 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Aug 10, 2011 9:18 pm

djmikey wrote:Can someone post the link or pic of the 18z gfs? Thanks



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_336l.gif
Here is the 18z GFS 336 hour forecast.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#294 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Aug 10, 2011 9:21 pm

We definately can't call this a recruve, at least right now.... A long time away from land, but at least we are getting hints of a US landfall...It will be fun to track this one and see what happens.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#295 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Aug 10, 2011 9:32 pm

So did I look at the GFS right? 92L slams into Pensacola while 93L hits the East coast? :double:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#296 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Aug 10, 2011 9:47 pm

Ivanhater wrote:So did I look at the GFS right? 92L slams into Pensacola while 93L hits the East coast? :double:



Yep, you saw correctly. That's why I was saying, that's one scary looking map!!
I can't even imagine how crazy this board would be if that came to pass.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#297 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Aug 10, 2011 10:18 pm

Geez took about a day and a half away from storm2k and was just telling someone today how slow the next few weeks were looking and now look at this and 93L! I'll wait another day or so before I totally jump on development but just like that the "real season" may be starting. Buckle up!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#298 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Thu Aug 11, 2011 12:38 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU AUG 11 2011

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 550 MILES WEST OF
THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE
IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#299 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Aug 11, 2011 4:49 am

92l look weaker today most storm south of center
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#300 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Aug 11, 2011 4:53 am

here you can see both http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/ir4-l.jpg 93l look better and 92l
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