ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[Migle]

Here's the reason :

FORECASTER STEWART

Getting close to that time of craziness out by the CV Islands though.

[Ivanhater]

BTW Ivan, where's 93l on the CMC? Sholdn't it be right behind?

CMC does not develop 93L...how bout them apples? Crazy things out there with 92L and 93L

[Rainband]

12z Canadian shows a building high off the east coast with 92L underneath

2004

[ROCK]

I think the CMC is having some issues if that is 92L...It looks like 93L under the high....maybe it cant see both since they are so close together....hmmm

[Nimbus]

Early Cape Verde storms often weaken mid Atlantic and regenerate west of 50W. If 92L responds to the warmer SST's further west before 93L you would expect 92L to track further south. Really too many variables at this point, they could both end up as fish if 92L finds a weakness in the ridge.

[beoumont]

they are so far out there...I would have left it at 30% for now....weird...I would love to be a fly on the wall when they are discussing percentages...

Having literally been a fly on the wall at the NHC for several decades, observation makes me doubt seriously there is any such discussion.

The forecaster on duty makes his own decision on such matters.

Stewart does tend to be an "optimist", though; and, I suppose, tends to err on the side of development, intensification, and future landfall.

---------------

As far as whether 92 or 93 develops; I'd put my chips on 93 at the moment.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 850 MILES WEST OF
THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE
LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWD Special Feature:

A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 740 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 13N35W WITH A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING NW FROM THE
LOW TO 19N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
15N-18N BETWEEN 38W-40W. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE W-NW AT 13 KT.

[ConvergenceZone]

I'll put my money on 93L and not 92L. 93L looks like the better of the two for sure.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 92, 2011081200, , BEST, 0, 140N, 373W, 25, 1011, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[CrazyC83]

I agree, I think this will just get absorbed by 93L in the end.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Down to 30%


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST OF
THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT NEAR 15 MPH.
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM MAY CURRENTLY BE ENCOUNTERING A DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[ROCK]

the latest EURO merges the two and we are left with 93L...tricky set up....

[Extratropical94]

8AM TWO: Back to 40%

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1175 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 20
MPH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track for 92L

AL, 92, 2011081212, , BEST, 0, 178N, 453W, 25, 1011, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[floridasun78]

it looking better today nhc need move floater

[underthwx]

it looking better today nhc need move floater

Looks impressiive so far; how soon will recon check system out?

[Gustywind]

12z Best Track for 92L

AL, 92, 2011081212, , BEST, 0, 178N, 453W, 25, 1011, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

What a jump from 140N, 373W 178N 458W...

[dwsqos2]

And this one looks like it's already coming under the influence of SW upper-level winds.

[wxman57]

Yeah, I'm not concerned about this one. Should stay out to sea and probably won't develop.