WPAC: INVEST 93W

[StormingB81]

Located 27N 152E

This is NE of Guam

JMA has it as a TD: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 26N 151E ALMOST STATIONARY

Can't get a photo up.

[supercane]

Latest vis:

Latest JTWC satellite bulletin has this too weak to classify:
TPPN10 PGTW 090034
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W (NE OF GUAM)
B. 08/2330Z
C. 27.7N
D. 152.3E
E. SIX/MTSAT
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO
CLASSIFY.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
08/1937Z 27.8N 152.7E SSMS
DARLOW
Earlier ASCAT, hopefully next pass will also catch this:

[supercane]

WWJP25 RJTD 090000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 090000.
WARNING VALID 100000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 18.8N 138.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10
KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW
SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 36N 141E 41N 142E
44N 147E 51N 157E 60N 168E 60N 180E 40N 180E 40N 170E 45N 160E 35N
150E 36N 141E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1006 HPA AT 57N 147E ESE SLOWLY.
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 1109 MUIFA (1109) TROPICAL DEPRESSION
996 HPA AT 44N 126E NE 20 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA AT 28N 152E NE 10 KT.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 31N 138E ALMOST STATIONARY.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 1110 MERBOK (1110) 985 HPA AT 40.4N 160.6E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[StormingB81]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 27.5N 152.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 540 NM EAST OF CHICHIJIMA, JAPAN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 081937Z SSMIS 37 GHZ
IMAGE INDICATE A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) POSITIONED ON THE TAIL-END OF A COLD FRONT WITH DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED EAST OF THE CENTER. MSI ALSO DEPICTS COOLER,
DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY, HOWEVER, THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT INDICATES A SMALL SYSTEM WITH A
COCOON OF DEEP MOISTURE. A 081131Z ASCAT IMAGE AS WELL AS THE RECENT
CIMSS 850MB VORTICITY PRODUCT SHOWS A DEFINED BUT ELONGATED LLCC.
OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 KNOTS) AND THE
PROXIMITY TO MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH AND THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12
TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[supercane]

Clear circulation on ASCAT:

Latest IR:

Seems to be holding on for now, even though it is quite near a strong shear zone, perhaps because the shear is in the direction of movement?

[euro6208]

this looks way more organized than 92w. i wouldn't be surprised if this was already a tropical cyclone. if this was in the atlantic near any land, it would...

this looks like a tropical storm....

[supercane]

JTWC calling this already dissipated in today's update to the significant tropical weather outlook. I expect this to ultimately be the case, but I think this declaration is somewhat premature:
ABPW10 PGTW 090600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/090600Z-100600ZAUG2011//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081951ZAUG2011//
REF/B/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/082151ZAUG2011//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 081800Z, TROPICAL STORM 12W (MERBOK) WAS LOCATED NEAR
39.2N 160.3E, APPROXIMATELY 825 NM SOUTH OF PETROPAVLOVSK, RUSSIA,
AND HAD TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 082100) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.2N
139.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 138.4E, APPROXIMATELY 480 NM
NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM AND IS THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 082200) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 27.5N
152.3E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//

[supercane]

WWJP25 RJTD 091200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 091200.
WARNING VALID 101200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA
AT 20.9N 137.6E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW
SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 36N 141E 42N 141E
46N 150E 51N 157E 60N 163E 60N 180E 40N 180E 40N 170E 45N 163E 40N
155E 36N 150E 36N 141E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 996 HPA AT 46N 130E NE 20 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA AT 30N 155E ENE 15 KT.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 30N 139E ALMOST STATIONARY.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 1110 MERBOK (1110) 985 HPA AT 41.9N 162.7E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
Latest IR shows at least partially exposed circulation:

Latest ASCAT:

[supercane]

WWJP25 RJTD 091800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 091800.
WARNING VALID 101800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW FORMER TROPICAL STORM 1110 MERBOK (1110) 988 HPA
AT 43N 164E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW.
GALE WARNING.
EXPECTED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS
BOUNDED BY 55N 135E 54N 143E 58N 157E 59N 155E 59N 142E 55N 135E
FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA
AT 21.6N 137.3E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 36N 140E 42N 141E
46N 150E 51N 157E 60N 164E 60N 180E 40N 180E 40N 170E 47N 164E 36N
153E 36N 140E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 994 HPA AT 48N 132E ENE 20 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 30N 157E ENE 15 KT.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 30N 139E ALMOST STATIONARY.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

TXPQ23 KNES 092101
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93W)
B. 09/2030Z
C. 30.3N
D. 157.3E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...DT=1.0 BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH LOW LEVEL CENTER 1.3
DEGREE FROM DEEPEST CONVECTION. PT=1.0. MET=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SCHWARTZ

[supercane]

Completely exposed:

WWJP25 RJTD 100000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 100000.
WARNING VALID 110000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 990 HPA
AT 45N 164E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW.
GALE WARNING.
EXPECTED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS
BOUNDED BY 55N 136E 59N 143E 59N 160E 55N 146E 55N 136E
FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA
AT 23.8N 136.5E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 37N 141E 42N 142E
47N 151E 55N 162E 60N 165E 60N 180E 40N 180E 39N 165E 37N 150E 37N
141E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 992 HPA AT 48N 134E EAST 15 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 31N 158E EAST 15 KT.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 30N 143E EAST SLOWLY.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=