ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al932011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108101904
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 93, 2011, DB, O, 2011081018, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL932011
AL, 93, 2011080918, , BEST, 0, 90N, 112W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2011081000, , BEST, 0, 93N, 124W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2011081006, , BEST, 0, 94N, 136W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2011081012, , BEST, 0, 96N, 146W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2011081018, , BEST, 0, 98N, 156W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


Thread at Talking Tropics that discussed about this system.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=111402&st=0&sk=t&sd=a

[GCANE]

Today's PREDICT Synopsis



SYNOPSIS 2011081000

P15L
11N, 10W
700 hPa

ECMWF: After moving off of Africa and weakening slightly, P15L then intensifies into the strongest storm of the season so far. It maintains at least 15 degrees separation to the southeast of P14L/92L.

GFS: Gradually intensifies.

UKMET: Faster than other models, and UKMET does not intensify P15L much.

NOGAPS: OUTLIER! P15L crawls off the African coast and eventually dissipates, becoming only an OW max after 84 hours.

HWRF-GEN: Similar to ECMWF. The only difference is that at later periods, HWRF-GEN depicts a much smaller, compact area of high OW values close to the center of a large pouch.

ECMWF -7.3 v700 & TPW 120h
GFS -7.6 v700 & RH/TPW 120h
UKMET -8.4 v700 & RH 120h
NOGAPS -4.3 v700 108h
HWGEN -6.6 v700 & RH 120h

[cycloneye]

First Tropical Model Plots for 93L

Wow is my expression.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 101909
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1909 UTC WED AUG 10 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932011) 20110810 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110810  1800   110811  0600   110811  1800   110812  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     9.7N  15.7W   10.2N  18.7W   10.9N  21.7W   11.8N  24.7W
BAMD     9.7N  15.7W    9.9N  18.8W   10.3N  21.8W   10.7N  24.4W
BAMM     9.7N  15.7W   10.1N  18.7W   10.8N  21.9W   11.5N  24.9W
LBAR     9.7N  15.7W   10.0N  18.7W   10.6N  22.2W   11.3N  25.7W
SHIP        20KTS          23KTS          30KTS          39KTS
DSHP        20KTS          23KTS          30KTS          39KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110812  1800   110813  1800   110814  1800   110815  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.5N  27.9W   12.5N  35.4W   10.9N  42.7W   10.0N  47.9W
BAMD    11.2N  26.8W   12.3N  32.3W   14.0N  37.9W   16.1N  42.6W
BAMM    12.2N  27.9W   12.9N  34.6W   13.0N  41.4W   13.7N  47.7W
LBAR    12.0N  29.2W   13.0N  35.9W   12.7N  41.7W   12.8N  46.6W
SHIP        49KTS          64KTS          73KTS          92KTS
DSHP        49KTS          64KTS          73KTS          92KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =   9.7N LONCUR =  15.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  11KT
LATM12 =   9.4N LONM12 =  13.6W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 =  11KT
LATM24 =   9.2N LONM24 =  11.1W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   45NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[HurricaneMaster_PR]

This appears to be more of a threat to the Caribbean than invest 92L according to the models!!

92 kts in 120 hrs. Wow!

[cycloneye]

That is right HurricaneMaster.

[Extratropical94]

Well, I wouldn't focus on the SHIPS intensity so much. Remember the first 91L (Emily) runs that forecasted a 73 knot cane after 120 hrs... it took her took almost that period of time to get a LLC together.

[Sanibel]

This looks like the better wave.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Well, I wouldn't focus on the SHIPS intensity so much. Remember the first 91L (Emily) runs that forecasted a 73 knot cane after 120 hrs... it took her took almost that period of time to get a LLC together.

We humans are still struggling with intensity forecasting, whereas we, especially the NHC, have improved dramatically with track forecasting during the past few years.

[Rgv20]

Well it looks like dry air should not be a problem with 93l as 92l should take care of that. In my opinion 93L could pose a bigger threat to the Caribbean as it looks like the Atlantic ridge to its north should be moving west in tandem with 93l thru the next 5 days and possibly beyond. Will take a closer look at the Global Models later this evening when I get home (I should not be posting while at work )

[Extratropical94]

Well, I wouldn't focus on the SHIPS intensity so much. Remember the first 91L (Emily) runs that forecasted a 73 knot cane after 120 hrs... it took her took almost that period of time to get a LLC together.

We humans are still struggling with intensity forecasting, whereas we, especially the NHC, have improved dramatically with track forecasting during the past few years.

Yup, that's why we have to look at track forecasts because they give us more precise information about a storm in the making.

[cycloneye]

[SouthFloridawx]

Very interesting...

[StormClouds63]

If 92L turns out to sea, wouldn't 93L follow that weakness left and follow a similar path? Systems currently look fairly close in proximity.

[cycloneye]

If 92L turns out to sea, wouldn't 93L follow that weakness left and follow a similar path? Systems currently look fairly close in proximity.

It looks like the ridge will move in tandem with 93L behind 92L and that is why the models have a more west track.Of course is early in the game and many changes for sure will occur in the model scenarios.

[Blown Away]

IMO, when the conservative NHC tags an invest this far in the E Atlantic, it usually develops.

[ConvergenceZone]

Looking forward to Many Days and Nights of Model Plotting from Luis, Rock and IvanHater

[northtxboy]

This will be the one we really need to watch

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

18Z TAFB Surface Analysis

[westwind]

looks like 93L is going to catch up with L92. I wonder if they will merge.
Could this slow development of both disturbances?

[GCANE]

TRMM captured a nice hot-tower about 3 hrs ago.