ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

Harvey should be making landfall within the next 4-6 hours or so. He is quickly running out of time to ramp up into a cane, althougth he really put on an impressive show of strengthening during the morning hours.

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KNHC 201605
AF309 0508A HARVEY HDOB 47 20110820
155500 1659N 08748W 8437 01529 0032 +215 +160 118048 052 043 006 03
155530 1700N 08747W 8419 01555 0047 +203 +164 130043 047 034 006 00
155600 1701N 08745W 8439 01539 0049 +206 +167 127038 040 028 006 03
155630 1702N 08744W 8420 01562 0057 +201 +168 126035 036 023 004 00
155700 1703N 08743W 8436 01551 0067 +195 +169 129034 035 023 006 00
155730 1704N 08742W 8425 01563 0069 +190 +169 130036 037 025 005 00
155800 1705N 08741W 8426 01564 0070 +194 +169 134032 034 019 004 00
155830 1707N 08739W 8430 01561 0073 +191 +168 133029 030 020 005 00
155900 1708N 08738W 8430 01561 0077 +185 +168 132026 029 021 004 00
155930 1709N 08737W 8429 01565 0080 +185 +168 129024 024 020 004 00
160000 1710N 08736W 8429 01565 0079 +185 +167 126026 026 034 006 03
160030 1711N 08734W 8429 01567 0083 +182 +166 123026 027 /// /// 03
160100 1712N 08733W 8429 01566 0083 +185 +165 124027 027 024 002 00
160130 1713N 08732W 8430 01566 0080 +190 +164 125028 028 036 006 03
160200 1714N 08731W 8430 01566 0080 +189 +163 127029 030 016 004 00
160230 1715N 08729W 8429 01567 0082 +186 +164 133030 030 010 004 00
160300 1716N 08728W 8432 01565 0085 +179 +164 133029 030 015 005 00
160330 1717N 08727W 8430 01568 0090 +172 +163 135030 031 013 006 00
160400 1719N 08726W 8427 01568 0091 +169 +162 135031 031 014 005 00
160430 1720N 08724W 8431 01564 0087 +177 +161 133031 031 020 004 00
$$
;

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 201610
XXAA 70168 99168 70879 04567 99000 25823 02036 00501 ///// /////
92686 22813 04017 85424 21858 11511 88999 77999
31313 09608 81551
61616 AF309 0508A HARVEY OB 23
62626 SPL 1683N08789W 1552 MBL WND 03028 AEV 20802 DLM WND 04016
999842 WL150 02534 083 REL 1683N08789W 155118 SPG 1683N08789W 155
240 =
XXBB 70168 99168 70879 04567 00000 25823 11892 21420 22867 23257
33850 21858 44842 20458
21212 00000 02036 11976 03032 22962 03524 33948 03022 44941 04521
55934 04517 66918 04518 77903 05514 88890 03004 99870 05005 11862
09512 22857 11010 33842 12012
31313 09608 81551
61616 AF309 0508A HARVEY OB 23
62626 SPL 1683N08789W 1552 MBL WND 03028 AEV 20802 DLM WND 04016
999842 WL150 02534 083 REL 1683N08789W 155118 SPG 1683N08789W 155
240 =
;

[Dave]

DECODED DROPSONDE 23

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 20th day of the month at 16:10Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number: 08
Storm Name: Harvey (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 23

Part A...


Date: Near the closest hour of 16Z on the 20th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 16.8N 87.9W
Location: 52 miles (83 km) to the SSE (159°) from Belize City, Belize.
Marsden Square: 045 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1000mb (29.53 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 25.8°C (78.4°F) 23.5°C (74.3°F) 20° (from the NNE) 36 knots (41 mph)
1000mb -1m (-3 ft) Other data not available.
925mb 686m (2,251 ft) 22.8°C (73.0°F) 21.5°C (70.7°F) 40° (from the NE) 17 knots (20 mph)
850mb 1,424m (4,672 ft) 21.8°C (71.2°F) Approximately 14°C (57°F) 115° (from the ESE) 11 knots (13 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 15:51Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...


Splash Location: 16.83N 87.89W
Splash Time: 15:52Z

Release Location: 16.83N 87.89W View map)
Release Time: 15:51:18Z

Splash Location: 16.83N 87.89W (
Splash Time: 15:52:40Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 30° (from the NNE)
- Wind Speed: 28 knots (32 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 40° (from the NE)
- Wind Speed: 16 knots (18 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 842mb to 999mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 158 gpm - 8 gpm (518 geo. feet - 26 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 25° (from the NNE)
- Wind Speed: 34 knots (39 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802


Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
1000mb (Surface) 25.8°C (78.4°F) 23.5°C (74.3°F)
892mb 21.4°C (70.5°F) 19.4°C (66.9°F)
867mb 23.2°C (73.8°F) Approximately 16°C (61°F)
850mb 21.8°C (71.2°F) Approximately 14°C (57°F)
842mb 20.4°C (68.7°F) Approximately 12°C (54°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
1000mb (Surface) 20° (from the NNE) 36 knots (41 mph)
976mb 30° (from the NNE) 32 knots (37 mph)
962mb 35° (from the NE) 24 knots (28 mph)
948mb 30° (from the NNE) 22 knots (25 mph)
941mb 45° (from the NE) 21 knots (24 mph)
934mb 45° (from the NE) 17 knots (20 mph)
918mb 45° (from the NE) 18 knots (21 mph)
903mb 55° (from the NE) 14 knots (16 mph)
890mb 30° (from the NNE) 4 knots (5 mph)
870mb 50° (from the NE) 5 knots (6 mph)
862mb 95° (from the E) 12 knots (14 mph)
857mb 110° (from the ESE) 10 knots (12 mph)
842mb 120° (from the ESE) 12 knots (14 mph)


---



[Dave]

[Macrocane]

Latest VDM supports 55 kt

000
URNT12 KNHC 201610
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL082011
A. 20/15:51:10Z
B. 16 deg 50 min N
087 deg 54 min W
C. 850 mb 1426 m
D. 52 kt
E. 231 deg 6 nm
F. 327 deg 53 kt
G. 224 deg 4 nm
H. 1000 mb
I. 14 C / 1533 m
J. 21 C / 1535 m
K. 13 C / NA
L. open nw
M. C14
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 0508A HARVEY OB 22
MAX FL WIND 63 KT NE QUAD 15:07:40Z
Ragged eyewall;

[Dave]

000
URNT12 KNHC 201610
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL082011
A. 20/15:51:10Z
B. 16 deg 50 min N
087 deg 54 min W
C. 850 mb 1426 m
D. 52 kt
E. 231 deg 6 nm
F. 327 deg 53 kt
G. 224 deg 4 nm
H. 1000 mb
I. 14 C / 1533 m
J. 21 C / 1535 m
K. 13 C / NA
L. open nw
M. C14
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 0508A HARVEY OB 22
MAX FL WIND 63 KT NE QUAD 15:07:40Z
Ragged eyewall
;

[Dave]

DECODED VDM

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 20th day of the month at 16:10Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 08L in 2011
Storm Name: Harvey (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 22
A. Time of Center Fix: 20th day of the month at 15:51:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°50'N 87°54'W (16.8333N 87.9W)
B. Center Fix Location: 50 miles (80 km) to the SSE (158°) from Belize City, Belize.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,426m (4,678ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 52kts (~ 59.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the SW (231°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 327° at 53kts (From the NNW at ~ 61.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 4 nautical miles (5 statute miles) to the SW (224°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1000mb (29.53 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,533m (5,030ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,535m (5,036ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open, open nw
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 63kts (~ 72.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 15:07:40Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
Ragged eyewall

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KNHC 201615
AF309 0508A HARVEY HDOB 48 20110820
160500 1721N 08723W 8429 01567 0085 +180 +159 134032 033 014 006 03
160530 1722N 08722W 8430 01567 0090 +176 +159 133035 035 014 006 00
160600 1723N 08721W 8429 01568 0092 +173 +159 134034 035 012 006 03
160630 1724N 08719W 8428 01571 0094 +172 +159 136032 032 020 005 00
160700 1725N 08718W 8430 01568 0093 +174 +158 134033 034 017 006 00
160730 1726N 08717W 8428 01572 0094 +171 +157 134034 035 022 006 00
160800 1727N 08716W 8432 01571 0095 +174 +156 133035 035 019 006 00
160830 1728N 08714W 8429 01571 0097 +170 +156 133035 035 016 005 00
160900 1730N 08713W 8429 01574 0098 +172 +157 134035 035 020 005 00
160930 1731N 08712W 8430 01573 0098 +178 +157 134034 035 019 005 00
161000 1732N 08711W 8430 01572 0094 +179 +157 134033 033 018 005 00
161030 1733N 08709W 8429 01572 0094 +175 +158 136033 033 018 005 00
161100 1734N 08708W 8429 01572 0095 +174 +159 137033 033 013 005 03
161130 1735N 08707W 8430 01572 0099 +171 +159 136033 033 016 005 00
161200 1736N 08706W 8430 01576 0100 +173 +159 137032 032 012 005 00
161230 1737N 08704W 8429 01576 0100 +175 +159 139032 032 015 005 03
161300 1738N 08703W 8430 01576 0101 +172 +158 137032 033 015 005 00
161330 1739N 08702W 8429 01578 0102 +170 +158 137033 033 020 004 00
161400 1741N 08701W 8430 01576 0103 +170 +157 137033 033 018 005 00
161430 1742N 08659W 8429 01578 0106 +167 +156 138032 032 018 004 03
$$
;

[Dave]

[Dave]

Mission Over - See ya Harvey

[HURAKAN]

latest radar image from Belize City

[Macrocane]

Moderate to heavy rains were registered last night/overnight in El Salvador, the highest accumulation was 76.2 mm/3.00 inches in San Marcos Lempa, San Salvador registered 27.5 mm/1.08 inches. This map shows the rainfall in 24 hours previous to 7 am today:

[EyELeSs1]

edit: oops wrong thread

[cycloneye]

Makes landfall

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
100 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011

...CENTER OF HARVEY MAKES LANDFALL NEAR DANGRIGA TOWN BELIZE...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 88.3W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...21 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
100 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011

...CENTER OF HARVEY MAKES LANDFALL NEAR DANGRIGA TOWN BELIZE...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 88.3W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...21 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA SAL WESTWARD
* THE COAST OF GUATEMALA
* THE COAST OF BELIZE

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
THE CENTER OF HARVEY HAS MADE LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF BELIZE NEAR
DANGRIGA TOWN...AND AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE
TROPICAL STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE
88.3 WEST. HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...
21 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE INLAND OVER BELIZE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE INTO NORTHERN
GUATEMALA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED NOW THAT THE CENTER OF HARVEY IS
MOVING INLAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF HONDURAS IN THE WARNING AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF
GUATEMALA AND BELIZE THIS AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...
BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF WHERE HARVEY MADE LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Macrocane]

I think it may have peaked to 55 kt before landfall, when recon left it seemed to be intensifying. So it's 8/8 what a weird season this is, however the problem with Harvey is the rain not the wind.

[Fyzn94]

Gawd, 8 for 8!!!

[Macrocane]

It's raining in San Salvador this afternoon, looks like the rains may spread in other parts of the country as the afternoon goes on.

[plasticup]

Gawd, 8 for 8!!!

9 is going to be a monster though.