ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Harvey has developed a very nice burst of deep convection and has expanded in size, it seems like he is enjoying his last meal of warm waters:
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Well looks like Harvey doesn't want all the attention on Irene. TYo be fair that is quite an impressive flare-up, may well regenerate.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
000
WTNT33 KNHC 212345
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
700 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2011
...HARVEY STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...HEADED FOR SOUTHERN MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 94.2W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NNE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO BARRA DE
NAUTLA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22
KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WILL MOVE
INLAND OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF VERACRUZ ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND
HARVEY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MOVING INLAND
OVER MEXICO.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES
OF VERACRUZ...OAXACA...HIDALGO...PUEBLA...AND TIAXCALA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT OR MONDAY
MORNING.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
WTNT33 KNHC 212345
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
700 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2011
...HARVEY STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...HEADED FOR SOUTHERN MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 94.2W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NNE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO BARRA DE
NAUTLA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22
KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WILL MOVE
INLAND OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF VERACRUZ ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND
HARVEY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MOVING INLAND
OVER MEXICO.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES
OF VERACRUZ...OAXACA...HIDALGO...PUEBLA...AND TIAXCALA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT OR MONDAY
MORNING.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
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Re: ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I don't think so, too little time on water and it's not in the plan for tomorrow. But it would have been interesting to see how much it intensifies.
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NONAME
- Category 1
- Posts: 372
- Age: 34
- Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2006 8:15 am
- Location: Where the Wind Blows
Re: ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Harvey sure is taking advantage of his short time over water again with the big burst of convection he is having.
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dwsqos2
Re: ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SACV4
Tropical storm force winds have been observed 34 knots g 39 knots.
Tropical storm force winds have been observed 34 knots g 39 knots.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33393
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
dwsqos2 wrote:http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SACV4
Tropical storm force winds have been observed 34 knots g 39 knots.
That is 10-min sustained correct? Such would support a 40 kt intensity.
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dwsqos2
Re: ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Yeah, the Sacrifice Island obs are 10-minute averages.
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000
WTNT43 KNHC 220243
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
1000 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2011
HARVEY HAS STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING. DEEP CONVECTION HAS
BEEN INCREASING MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB...AND A SHIP REPORTED 25 KT WINDS ABOUT 80 MILES NORTH OF THE
CENTER AT 0000 UTC. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
INCREASED TO 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC AND
OCEANIC ENVIRONMENTS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...HARVEY ONLY
HAS A SHORT TIME OVER WATER SO ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
STRENGTH IS FORECAST. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE
RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO IN A LITTLE
OVER 24 HOURS.
THE CENTER OF HARVEY HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS EVENING.
THE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10. A TURN
TO THE WEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST UNTIL
DISSIPATION.
MOST OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH HARVEY HAS ALREADY MOVED INLAND
OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
MAIN HAZARD. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY INDICATE THAT WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT LAGUNA
VERDE IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0300Z 19.0N 95.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 19.3N 96.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...ON THE COAST
24H 23/0000Z 19.5N 97.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
000
WTNT33 KNHC 220242
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
1000 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2011
...HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH HARVEY ARE SPREADING WESTWARD OVER
SOUTHERN MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 95.0W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM NW OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO BARRA DE
NAUTLA
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/H. A TURN TO THE WEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...HARVEY IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO MONDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND HARVEY COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER MEXICO.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES
OF VERACRUZ...OAXACA...HIDALGO...PUEBLA...AND TIAXCALA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN A PORTION OF THE
WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
000
WTNT23 KNHC 220242
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
0300 UTC MON AUG 22 2011
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO BARRA DE
NAUTLA
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 95.0W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 95.0W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 94.3W
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.3N 96.2W...ON THE COAST
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.5N 97.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 95.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
WTNT43 KNHC 220243
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
1000 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2011
HARVEY HAS STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING. DEEP CONVECTION HAS
BEEN INCREASING MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB...AND A SHIP REPORTED 25 KT WINDS ABOUT 80 MILES NORTH OF THE
CENTER AT 0000 UTC. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
INCREASED TO 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC AND
OCEANIC ENVIRONMENTS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...HARVEY ONLY
HAS A SHORT TIME OVER WATER SO ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
STRENGTH IS FORECAST. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE
RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO IN A LITTLE
OVER 24 HOURS.
THE CENTER OF HARVEY HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS EVENING.
THE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10. A TURN
TO THE WEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST UNTIL
DISSIPATION.
MOST OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH HARVEY HAS ALREADY MOVED INLAND
OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
MAIN HAZARD. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY INDICATE THAT WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT LAGUNA
VERDE IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0300Z 19.0N 95.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 19.3N 96.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...ON THE COAST
24H 23/0000Z 19.5N 97.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
000
WTNT33 KNHC 220242
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
1000 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2011
...HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH HARVEY ARE SPREADING WESTWARD OVER
SOUTHERN MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 95.0W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM NW OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO BARRA DE
NAUTLA
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/H. A TURN TO THE WEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...HARVEY IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO MONDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND HARVEY COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER MEXICO.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES
OF VERACRUZ...OAXACA...HIDALGO...PUEBLA...AND TIAXCALA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN A PORTION OF THE
WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
000
WTNT23 KNHC 220242
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
0300 UTC MON AUG 22 2011
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO BARRA DE
NAUTLA
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 95.0W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 95.0W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 94.3W
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.3N 96.2W...ON THE COAST
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.5N 97.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 95.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
0 likes
-
NONAME
- Category 1
- Posts: 372
- Age: 34
- Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2006 8:15 am
- Location: Where the Wind Blows
Re: ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Well it almost looks like Harvey has made landfall again...
0 likes
000
WTNT33 KNHC 220544
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
100 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2011
...CENTER OF HARVEY ALMOST ONSHORE NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 95.9W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM ESE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO BARRA DE
NAUTLA
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/H. A TURN TO THE WEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...HARVEY WILL MOVE
INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY AS THE CENTER OF
HARVEY APPROACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST
TO DISSIPATE OVER MEXICO BY MONDAY NIGHT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES
OF VERACRUZ...OAXACA...HIDALGO...PUEBLA...AND TIAXCALA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
WIND...GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA THROUGH THE MORNING.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
WTNT33 KNHC 220544
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
100 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2011
...CENTER OF HARVEY ALMOST ONSHORE NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 95.9W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM ESE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO BARRA DE
NAUTLA
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/H. A TURN TO THE WEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...HARVEY WILL MOVE
INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY AS THE CENTER OF
HARVEY APPROACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST
TO DISSIPATE OVER MEXICO BY MONDAY NIGHT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES
OF VERACRUZ...OAXACA...HIDALGO...PUEBLA...AND TIAXCALA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
WIND...GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA THROUGH THE MORNING.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
0 likes
Re: ATL: HARVEY - Advisories
000
WTNT43 KNHC 220854
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
400 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2011
EARLIER OVERNIGHT...AN AUTOMATED STATION IN ALVARADO...WITHIN THE
MEXICAN STATE OF VERACRUZ...REPORTED WINDS VEERING FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND OF
20 KT AND A GUST TO 30 KT. BASED ON THIS OBSERVATION AND EARLIER
MICROWAVE DATA...IT APPEARS THAT HARVEY TURNED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AND MOVED INLAND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF ALVARADO BETWEEN 0000 AND
0300 UTC. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 255/9...ALTHOUGH
IT COULD BE A LITTLE FASTER...AND HARVEY IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN
ON THIS HEADING AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE DAY.
CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE SCATTERED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL MEXICO...AND THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 30 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY. HOWEVER...HARVEY SHOULD WEAKEN NOW THAT IT IS OVER
LAND...AND IT COULD ULTIMATELY DISSIPATE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT
OVER THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS.
HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES...WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO EVEN IF THE CENTER OF HARVEY DISSIPATES LATER
TODAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0900Z 18.4N 96.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 18.2N 96.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BERG
000
WTNT33 KNHC 221226
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
700 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2011
...HARVEY QUICKLY WEAKENING OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 96.7W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FROM PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO BARRA DE NAUTLA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
NONE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY
WAS LOCATED INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE
96.7 WEST. THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE HARVEY DISSIPATES.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...55
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED NOW
THAT HARVEY IS WELL INLAND OVER MEXICO...AND THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN TODAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES
OF VERACRUZ...OAXACA...HIDALGO...PUEBLA...AND TIAXCALA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
WIND...GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF THE EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING LATER
TODAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/WROE
WTNT43 KNHC 220854
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
400 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2011
EARLIER OVERNIGHT...AN AUTOMATED STATION IN ALVARADO...WITHIN THE
MEXICAN STATE OF VERACRUZ...REPORTED WINDS VEERING FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND OF
20 KT AND A GUST TO 30 KT. BASED ON THIS OBSERVATION AND EARLIER
MICROWAVE DATA...IT APPEARS THAT HARVEY TURNED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AND MOVED INLAND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF ALVARADO BETWEEN 0000 AND
0300 UTC. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 255/9...ALTHOUGH
IT COULD BE A LITTLE FASTER...AND HARVEY IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN
ON THIS HEADING AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE DAY.
CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE SCATTERED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL MEXICO...AND THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 30 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY. HOWEVER...HARVEY SHOULD WEAKEN NOW THAT IT IS OVER
LAND...AND IT COULD ULTIMATELY DISSIPATE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT
OVER THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS.
HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES...WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO EVEN IF THE CENTER OF HARVEY DISSIPATES LATER
TODAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0900Z 18.4N 96.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 18.2N 96.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BERG
000
WTNT33 KNHC 221226
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
700 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2011
...HARVEY QUICKLY WEAKENING OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 96.7W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FROM PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO BARRA DE NAUTLA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
NONE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY
WAS LOCATED INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE
96.7 WEST. THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE HARVEY DISSIPATES.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...55
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED NOW
THAT HARVEY IS WELL INLAND OVER MEXICO...AND THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN TODAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES
OF VERACRUZ...OAXACA...HIDALGO...PUEBLA...AND TIAXCALA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
WIND...GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF THE EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING LATER
TODAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/WROE
0 likes
ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
400 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2011
EARLIER OVERNIGHT...AN AUTOMATED STATION IN ALVARADO...WITHIN THE
MEXICAN STATE OF VERACRUZ...REPORTED WINDS VEERING FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND OF
20 KT AND A GUST TO 30 KT. BASED ON THIS OBSERVATION AND EARLIER
MICROWAVE DATA...IT APPEARS THAT HARVEY TURNED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AND MOVED INLAND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF ALVARADO BETWEEN 0000 AND
0300 UTC. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 255/9...ALTHOUGH
IT COULD BE A LITTLE FASTER...AND HARVEY IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN
ON THIS HEADING AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE DAY.
CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE SCATTERED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL MEXICO...AND THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 30 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY. HOWEVER...HARVEY SHOULD WEAKEN NOW THAT IT IS OVER
LAND...AND IT COULD ULTIMATELY DISSIPATE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT
OVER THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS.
HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES...WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO EVEN IF THE CENTER OF HARVEY DISSIPATES LATER
TODAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0900Z 18.4N 96.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 18.2N 96.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN
ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
400 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2011
...HARVEY NOW INLAND OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF VERACRUZ...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 96.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO BARRA DE NAUTLA
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY
WAS LOCATED INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE
96.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE HARVEY DISSIPATES.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED NOW THAT HARVEY IS INLAND OVER
MEXICO...AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN LATER TODAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES
OF VERACRUZ...OAXACA...HIDALGO...PUEBLA...AND TIAXCALA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
WIND...GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN
ZCZC MIATCMAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
0900 UTC MON AUG 22 2011
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO BARRA DE NAUTLA
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 96.0W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 96.0W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 95.7W
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.2N 96.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 96.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
400 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2011
EARLIER OVERNIGHT...AN AUTOMATED STATION IN ALVARADO...WITHIN THE
MEXICAN STATE OF VERACRUZ...REPORTED WINDS VEERING FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND OF
20 KT AND A GUST TO 30 KT. BASED ON THIS OBSERVATION AND EARLIER
MICROWAVE DATA...IT APPEARS THAT HARVEY TURNED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AND MOVED INLAND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF ALVARADO BETWEEN 0000 AND
0300 UTC. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 255/9...ALTHOUGH
IT COULD BE A LITTLE FASTER...AND HARVEY IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN
ON THIS HEADING AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE DAY.
CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE SCATTERED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL MEXICO...AND THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 30 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY. HOWEVER...HARVEY SHOULD WEAKEN NOW THAT IT IS OVER
LAND...AND IT COULD ULTIMATELY DISSIPATE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT
OVER THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS.
HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES...WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO EVEN IF THE CENTER OF HARVEY DISSIPATES LATER
TODAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0900Z 18.4N 96.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 18.2N 96.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN
ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
400 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2011
...HARVEY NOW INLAND OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF VERACRUZ...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 96.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO BARRA DE NAUTLA
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY
WAS LOCATED INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE
96.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE HARVEY DISSIPATES.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED NOW THAT HARVEY IS INLAND OVER
MEXICO...AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN LATER TODAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES
OF VERACRUZ...OAXACA...HIDALGO...PUEBLA...AND TIAXCALA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
WIND...GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN
ZCZC MIATCMAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
0900 UTC MON AUG 22 2011
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO BARRA DE NAUTLA
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 96.0W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 96.0W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 95.7W
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.2N 96.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 96.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN
0 likes
ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
700 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2011
...HARVEY QUICKLY WEAKENING OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 96.7W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FROM PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO BARRA DE NAUTLA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
NONE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY
WAS LOCATED INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE
96.7 WEST. THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE HARVEY DISSIPATES.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...55
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED NOW
THAT HARVEY IS WELL INLAND OVER MEXICO...AND THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN TODAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES
OF VERACRUZ...OAXACA...HIDALGO...PUEBLA...AND TIAXCALA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
WIND...GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF THE EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING LATER
TODAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/WROE
NNNN
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
700 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2011
...HARVEY QUICKLY WEAKENING OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 96.7W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FROM PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO BARRA DE NAUTLA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
NONE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY
WAS LOCATED INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE
96.7 WEST. THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE HARVEY DISSIPATES.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...55
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED NOW
THAT HARVEY IS WELL INLAND OVER MEXICO...AND THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN TODAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES
OF VERACRUZ...OAXACA...HIDALGO...PUEBLA...AND TIAXCALA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
WIND...GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF THE EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING LATER
TODAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/WROE
NNNN
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ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
REMNANTS OF HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
1000 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2011
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT HARVEY HAS
DISSIPATED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. A
LARGE PLUME OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
HARVEY WILL SPREAD FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE MOISTURE...IN COMBINATION WITH LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINS OVER THIS REGION...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/1500Z 18.1N 97.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 18.1N 98.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...DISSIPATED
24H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/WROE
NNNN
ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
1000 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2011
...HARVEY DISSIPATES OVER THE SIERRA MADRE OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 97.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF HARVEY WERE
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.3 WEST. THE SYSTEM
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 25 MPH...45
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE
SYSTEM WEAKENS FURTHER TODAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE REMNANTS OF HARVEY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ...OAXACA...HIDALGO...PUEBLA...AND
TIAXCALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON HARVEY.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/WROE
NNNN
ZCZC MIATCMAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
REMNANTS OF HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
1500 UTC MON AUG 22 2011
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 97.3W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 97.3W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 96.7W
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 97.3W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON HARVEY
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/WROE
NNNN
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
REMNANTS OF HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
1000 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2011
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT HARVEY HAS
DISSIPATED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. A
LARGE PLUME OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
HARVEY WILL SPREAD FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE MOISTURE...IN COMBINATION WITH LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINS OVER THIS REGION...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/1500Z 18.1N 97.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 18.1N 98.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...DISSIPATED
24H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/WROE
NNNN
ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
1000 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2011
...HARVEY DISSIPATES OVER THE SIERRA MADRE OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 97.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF HARVEY WERE
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.3 WEST. THE SYSTEM
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 25 MPH...45
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE
SYSTEM WEAKENS FURTHER TODAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE REMNANTS OF HARVEY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ...OAXACA...HIDALGO...PUEBLA...AND
TIAXCALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON HARVEY.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/WROE
NNNN
ZCZC MIATCMAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
REMNANTS OF HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
1500 UTC MON AUG 22 2011
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 97.3W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 97.3W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 96.7W
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 97.3W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON HARVEY
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/WROE
NNNN
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