ATL : GERT - Remnants - Discussion
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Re: ATL : GERT - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Could see some swell here in Florida. Emily was a great wave and offshore wind producer. 3-5 foot glass last Sunday. Not going to see anything like that but for a slow season, not a bad start!
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Re: ATL : GERT - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Gert is looking good tonight, at least it looks better than Emily and Don ever did. I think it has a good chance to reach hurricane status if the trend continues. This is an unofficial and amateur opinion.
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Re: ATL : GERT - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Our first Hurricane on Aug. 15 and 16 maybe, this one's looking good tonight.
I agree with Macrocane.
well there you have it, the boredom streak ends....perhaps....for the ones wanting to see an Atlantic Hurricane, even if its a Cat 1.
My thought is 70% it makes it to Cat 1, 30% it makes it to Cat 2. Bermuda's gonna get some wind out of this, hopefully not a direct strike though and only "Nemo" should watch out for the eye.
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I agree with Macrocane.
well there you have it, the boredom streak ends....perhaps....for the ones wanting to see an Atlantic Hurricane, even if its a Cat 1.
My thought is 70% it makes it to Cat 1, 30% it makes it to Cat 2. Bermuda's gonna get some wind out of this, hopefully not a direct strike though and only "Nemo" should watch out for the eye.
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brunota2003
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I see a weaker version of the indicator...believe a 20 to 25 knot rapid increase is likely late this morning/afternoon...though I am not sure if this morning's strengthening would be a part of it or not. Otherwise, if not, the system may peak at 70 or 75 knots later today/tonight.
I see a weaker version of the indicator...believe a 20 to 25 knot rapid increase is likely late this morning/afternoon...though I am not sure if this morning's strengthening would be a part of it or not. Otherwise, if not, the system may peak at 70 or 75 knots later today/tonight.
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System is trying to wrap round, its certainly developing a proto-inner core right now and that is much more advanced then some of the other systems this season.
May well reach hurricane status if this trend continues.
May well reach hurricane status if this trend continues.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL : GERT - Tropical Storm - Discussion
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Does look like an inner core is developing, Bermuda may well get a stronger ssytem then they were expecting.
Is recon heading in today, if they are I may make a recon thread if there isn't already one?
Is recon heading in today, if they are I may make a recon thread if there isn't already one?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL : GERT - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Recon is flying now towards Gert. There is already a thread for recon.
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111476&p=2159595#p2159595
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111476&p=2159595#p2159595
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Re: ATL : GERT - Tropical Storm - Discussion
What are the chances of Gert becoming the first hurricane of the season? And does anyone know how close we are to the 2005 season's pace?
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HURAKAN
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Re: ATL : GERT - Tropical Storm - Discussion
AHS2011 wrote:What are the chances of Gert becoming the first hurricane of the season? And does anyone know how close we are to the 2005 season's pace?
33%
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An increasing chance I see then of a hurricane, I suspect Gert will have a 50-50 shot at becoming a hurricane, it probably has enough time to do so, esp given the start of an inner core.
Conditions further north don't look great so its going to have to be a quick fire strengthening.
Conditions further north don't look great so its going to have to be a quick fire strengthening.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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Aric Dunn
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If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Yeah recon sorta suggests its getting better organised as well internally, next pass will go through the NE quadrant, may well see some 60-65kts at flight level IMO...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: ATL : GERT - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Is the system south of Gert being abosrbed by Gert?
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"People might not get all they work for in this world, but they must certainly work for all they get."- Frederick Douglass
AHS2011, I suspect so, that system is ex-92L I believe.
Recon will be going through the NE quadrant very soon...
Recon will be going through the NE quadrant very soon...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: ATL : GERT - Tropical Storm - Discussion
So wouldn't that give Gert more energy to form into a hurricane?
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"People might not get all they work for in this world, but they must certainly work for all they get."- Frederick Douglass
Re: ATL : GERT - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I was hoping we'd see some effects of Gert here in Bermuda as we really need the rain, but outside it looks like a normal sunny day and the sea is a as calm as can be. In fact, it's the calmest I have seen it in a long time!
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