ATL : GERT - Remnants - Discussion

#41 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Sat Aug 13, 2011 10:03 am

Aric Dunn wrote:Showing signs of organizing !! ... really ...really .... I guess the well defined LLC and convection is not longer the case for a TC. now given the convection is minimal it is however continuing to rebuild.... we have seen so many less organized systems be classified, and they did not even bring up the percentages.. lol somethings funny here

I was thinking the exact same thing. Maybe they don't want the first seven storms to not reach hurricane strength? Lol this is very odd.

#42 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Aug 13, 2011 11:32 am

nice circulation but lacks organized convection

Aric Dunn · #43 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Aug 13, 2011 12:36 pm

HURAKAN wrote:[img]http://img854.imageshack.us/img854/6050/2011al941kmsrvis2011081.gif/img]

nice circulation but lacks organized convection

we have had so many less organized TC ... and even two this year ... come to mind.. lol

Macrocane · #44 Postby **Macrocane** » Sat Aug 13, 2011 12:40 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:we have had so many less organized TC ... and even two this year ... come to mind.. lol

Let me guess...Don and Emily? :wink:

#45 Postby **Extratropical94** » Sat Aug 13, 2011 12:46 pm

Up to 60%

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

#46 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Sat Aug 13, 2011 12:47 pm

Finally code red. Worthy of it.

dwsqos2 · #47 Postby **dwsqos2** » Sat Aug 13, 2011 12:47 pm

Subjective T numbers haven't risen above 1.0. All other tropical cyclones this season have had at least one six hour period during which subjective T numbers averaged at least 2.5. Sorry, this does not meet the convective definition.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

#48 Postby **Extratropical94** » Sat Aug 13, 2011 12:51 pm

Well, the 1745 UTC numbers aren't out yet. Maybe they push the system to 1.5/1.5. TD 6 was classified when it was a ST1.5 system.

dwsqos2 · #49 Postby **dwsqos2** » Sat Aug 13, 2011 12:59 pm

Yes, I know that, but my point is that all of the other storms this year have at least had a moment of glory during which they were better organized than this, particularly Don and Emily.

#50 Postby **Extratropical94** » Sat Aug 13, 2011 1:04 pm

Yeah, you're totally right. As long as 94L doesn't show that it is gonna persist and remain organized for some decent amount of time, the NHC won't think about a re-classification.

#51 Postby **MGC** » Sat Aug 13, 2011 1:15 pm

Needs a bit more convection to get classified IMO....but you never know with the NHC....MGC

#52 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Sat Aug 13, 2011 1:17 pm

92L is getting pretty close to 94L.... It will be interesting to see how they interact. Looks like convection is slowly trying to build closer to the center:

#53 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Aug 13, 2011 1:24 pm

Link: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 131045.GIF

Great loop of this system

#54 Postby **Extratropical94** » Sat Aug 13, 2011 1:30 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Link: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 131045.GIF

Great loop of this system

Nice visible loop there, you can clearly see how the convective flares try to creep towards the circulation center.

#55 Postby **Extratropical94** » Sat Aug 13, 2011 1:35 pm

1745Z Dvorak:

13/1745 UTC 27.4N 60.5W T1.5/1.5 94L -- Atlantic

#56 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Sat Aug 13, 2011 1:59 pm

Extratropical94 wrote:1745Z Dvorak:

13/1745 UTC 27.4N 60.5W T1.5/1.5 94L -- Atlantic

We might have TD 7 soon....

#57 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Sat Aug 13, 2011 2:02 pm

Convection building over the center, it's no longer exposed. Looking good to me!

HurrMark · #58 Postby **HurrMark** » Sat Aug 13, 2011 2:12 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:Convection building over the center, it's no longer exposed. Looking good to me!

Yep...it may be on its way to being a TC. But I don't see this coming anywhere near the US nor do I see this becoming that strong. So a couple of streaks would continue...

Personal Disclaimer: My opinion and statements DO NOT represent the opinion of the NHC, NWS, or any other professional agency, organization, or group. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

KWT · #59 Postby **KWT** » Sat Aug 13, 2011 2:22 pm

I do think this on its way, not sure it will get too strong given the odd pattern out in the atlantic but u never know!

#60 Postby **Extratropical94** » Sat Aug 13, 2011 2:33 pm

Edit: Looked at the wrong sat image.
Anyway, those systems are wandering around somewhere between filling me with excitement and making me lose patience.

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