ATL : GERT - Remnants - Discussion

[SouthDadeFish]

Making progress:

1745Z:


1915Z:


Looks like TD 7 to me.

[wxman57]

Yeah, looks like a TD or TS to me now.

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah, looks like a TD or TS to me now.

yeah likely been a TD since last night. likely a TS now. but who's counting.. lol

[tolakram]

Waiting patiently for the renumber. Odd year so far, lots of north central activity. What other seasons are similar to this one?

[AdamFirst]

Seven tropical storms before a hurricane?

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT21 KNGU 132200
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 27.9N 61.6W TO 30.7N 65.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
2. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 27N60W AT 13/2100Z,
ABOUT 370NM SE OF BERMUDA MOVING WNW AT 11KT. SATELLITE LOOPS
INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF LESSER WIND SHEAR AND
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 82F TO 84F, WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT DVORAK ANALYSIS AT 13/1745Z IS T1.5.
THE HURRICANE HUNTERS ARE CURRENTLY SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
TOMORROW AT 14/1800Z.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE BY 142200Z.//

[KWT]

its like an el nino type season, but on steriods. Everything above 25N has formed, most below has really struggled. Sure does look like 7, probs on its way to gert...

[Extratropical94]

Now with recon scheduled to investigate the system I fear that the NHC might wait til a plane confirmes something and that we don't see #7 tonight.

[ROCK]

should be Gert on appearance only...nice LLC, convection.....probably tonight I would think.

[cycloneye]

90%

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES COULD BE
INITIATED LATER TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...
90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 132358
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1012 MB LOW IS NEAR 27N61W...ABOUT 400 NM SE OF BERMUDA.
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM
AROUND THE LOW CENTER. THE CLOUD STRUCTURE IS BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED...AND IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES COULD BE
INITIATED LATER TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WNW AT 10-12 KT.

$$

GARCIA

[HurrMark]

Yup...this will probably be Seven or 'Gert'...another bullet dodged by the US and quite possibly seven for seven for non-hurricane development.

I agree with the comment about El Nino...even though we don't have it in place, the tracks so far seem to look very similar. Of the four invests, the two most northwesterly ones are the ones that have the best shot of development...and the deep tropics one is fizzling out.

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al942011_al072011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108140037
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

[brunota2003]

I think depression tonight, and they'll wait for recon for the upgrade to TS.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track for TD 7

AL, 07, 2011081400, , BEST, 0, 277N, 612W, 30, 1011, TD

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[SouthDadeFish]

13/2345 UTC 27.8N 61.0W T2.0/2.0 94L -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[Nimbus]

Definitely Gert too bad they have to wait for recon to initialize the models. Just slowly drifting WNW, I wonder if 92L is going to pull Gert SW with the Fujiwara effect?

[ozonepete]

Definitely Gert too bad they have to wait for recon to initialize the models. Just slowly drifting WNW, I wonder if 92L is going to pull Gert SW with the Fujiwara effect?

Hmmm, you have to wonder. They are quite close.

[ozonepete]

But both relatively quite weak yet, and of similar strength. That makes Fujiwhara less likely, or if it occurs, less intense.

Well, to clarify, they have to get VERY close when they're that weak. And it doesn't appear that's going to happen.

[ozonepete]

Interesting item in the 11PM discussion:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREASOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA HAS DEVELOPED PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION AROUND A TIGHTLY-WOUND LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 30 KT...AND BASED ON THESE ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON THE SYSTEM AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/9. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LARGE LOW-/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC. A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE...CAUSING THE DEPRESSION TO TURN NORTHWARD BY 36 HR AND RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERLIES BY 72 HR. THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE FORECAST BEING A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFDL MODEL FORECASTS. A POTENTIAL COMPLICATION TO THE TRACK FORECAST IS SHOWN BY THE UKMET MODEL... WHICH FORECASTS THE DEPRESSION TO EXPERIENCE ERRATIC MOTION DURING THE NEXT 48 HR AS IT INTERACTS WITH A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ABOUT 400 N MI TO THE SOUTHEAST. IF SUCH INTERACTION OCCURS...IT WOULD DELAY THE APPROACH OF THE DEPRESSION TO BERMUDA.