ATL: GERT - Models

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ATL: GERT - Models

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 12, 2011 6:56 am

Post away the models for this invest.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#2 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 12, 2011 7:02 am

First Tropical Model Plots

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 121147
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1147 UTC FRI AUG 12 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942011) 20110812 0600 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110812  0600   110812  1800   110813  0600   110813  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    25.0N  53.6W   25.8N  55.4W   26.8N  57.2W   28.3N  58.8W
BAMD    25.0N  53.6W   24.9N  55.6W   25.5N  57.2W   26.4N  58.5W
BAMM    25.0N  53.6W   25.6N  55.4W   26.5N  57.1W   27.8N  58.4W
LBAR    25.0N  53.6W   25.2N  55.6W   26.0N  57.7W   27.1N  59.6W
SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          34KTS          39KTS
DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          34KTS          39KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110814  0600   110815  0600   110816  0600   110817  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    29.9N  59.4W   33.5N  57.5W   34.2N  52.2W   31.6N  49.8W
BAMD    27.3N  59.5W   29.1N  60.4W   30.6N  60.9W   32.7N  61.3W
BAMM    29.2N  59.1W   32.0N  57.9W   33.0N  55.2W   31.9N  54.6W
LBAR    28.1N  61.0W   32.0N  62.0W   36.9N  58.6W   41.1N  50.9W
SHIP        45KTS          50KTS          48KTS          45KTS
DSHP        45KTS          50KTS          48KTS          45KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  25.0N LONCUR =  53.6W DIRCUR = 250DEG SPDCUR =   9KT
LATM12 =  25.5N LONM12 =  51.8W DIRM12 = 244DEG SPDM12 =   9KT
LATM24 =  26.6N LONM24 =  50.3W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD =  300NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#3 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 12, 2011 7:06 am

06z BAM models...

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#4 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 12, 2011 7:25 am

Image
Now that's funny, it's like Navy warships on attack! :lol:
Last edited by Blown Away on Fri Aug 12, 2011 8:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#5 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 12, 2011 8:13 am

I don't see that kind of loop happening as the BAMs are showing. I think those models are confused.

More realistically we will see a WSW track as she rounds the SE periphery of a subtropical ridge located WNW of her.....could bring some rainfall to portions of northern/western Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, and SE Bahamas.

There is alot of dry air/SAL around so that will be an inhibiting factor for development and should keep the convection at check.

Development chances should remain low, but if she ends up interacting with 92L, it may provide a boost (though looks like 92L passes by to her NE)

Definitely something to keep an eye on though.
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Re:

#6 Postby underthwx » Fri Aug 12, 2011 9:21 am

gatorcane wrote:I don't see that kind of loop happening as the BAMs are showing. I think those models are confused.

More realistically we will see a WSW track as she rounds the SE periphery of a subtropical ridge located WNW of her.....could bring some rainfall to portions of northern/western Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, and SE Bahamas.

There is alot of dry air/SAL around so that will be an inhibiting factor for development and should keep the convection at check.

Development chances should remain low, but if she ends up interacting with 92L, it may provide a boost (though looks like 92L passes by to her NE)

Definitely something to keep an eye on though.

If 92L survives it will be in proximity of 94L? I haven't looked at any models or anything else this morning.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#7 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 12, 2011 9:58 am

12z NAM has this moving WSW for a bit then moves it WNW towards the southern bahamas before the trof catches it i suspect.

Image

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=08%2F12%2F2011+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=10m_wnd_precip&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=WNATL&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=&areaDesc=Western+North+Atlantic+-+Southeast+US+Central+America+Caribbean&prevArea=WNATL&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M
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#8 Postby Vortex » Fri Aug 12, 2011 6:06 pm

18Z NAM further west into the bahamas....something to watch closely over the weekend.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#9 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 13, 2011 3:46 pm

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 131805
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1805 UTC SAT AUG 13 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942011) 20110813 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110813  1800   110814  0600   110814  1800   110815  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    27.4N  60.5W   28.3N  62.1W   29.6N  63.5W   31.4N  64.2W
BAMD    27.4N  60.5W   27.9N  61.8W   28.6N  63.2W   29.5N  64.5W
BAMM    27.4N  60.5W   28.1N  62.0W   29.0N  63.3W   30.2N  64.4W
LBAR    27.4N  60.5W   28.4N  61.7W   29.6N  62.8W   31.3N  63.3W
SHIP        30KTS          35KTS          40KTS          45KTS
DSHP        30KTS          35KTS          40KTS          45KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110815  1800   110816  1800   110817  1800   110818  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    34.0N  64.1W   40.5N  58.0W   43.5N  46.7W   45.1N  33.8W
BAMD    31.1N  65.9W   37.1N  67.5W   43.3N  61.1W   48.4N  29.0W
BAMM    32.3N  65.2W   39.1N  61.9W   44.3N  49.4W   48.1N  27.8W
LBAR    33.2N  63.1W   38.3N  59.3W   43.1N  49.0W   41.4N  38.0W
SHIP        50KTS          62KTS          59KTS          45KTS
DSHP        50KTS          62KTS          59KTS          45KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  27.4N LONCUR =  60.5W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR =  11KT
LATM12 =  26.4N LONM12 =  58.3W DIRM12 = 304DEG SPDM12 =  12KT
LATM24 =  25.4N LONM24 =  56.2W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   35NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD =  140NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

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#10 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sat Aug 13, 2011 4:03 pm

Up to 62 knots says the SHIPS. Notice the spread on the GFS ensemble members :roll:
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#11 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sat Aug 13, 2011 5:40 pm

18Z GFS barely shows any vorticity on initialization. Lol....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#12 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 13, 2011 7:48 pm

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 140042
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0042 UTC SUN AUG 14 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN (AL072011) 20110814 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110814  0000   110814  1200   110815  0000   110815  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    27.7N  61.2W   28.6N  63.0W   29.8N  64.6W   31.5N  66.0W
BAMD    27.7N  61.2W   28.2N  62.5W   29.0N  63.7W   30.0N  65.1W
BAMM    27.7N  61.2W   28.4N  62.8W   29.3N  64.2W   30.5N  65.5W
LBAR    27.7N  61.2W   28.7N  62.4W   30.0N  63.1W   31.5N  63.3W
SHIP        30KTS          33KTS          38KTS          43KTS
DSHP        30KTS          33KTS          38KTS          43KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110816  0000   110817  0000   110818  0000   110819  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    34.1N  66.7W   40.3N  64.2W   43.9N  56.7W   44.3N  43.1W
BAMD    32.0N  66.5W   38.6N  67.9W   44.4N  60.5W   49.0N  29.8W
BAMM    32.8N  66.9W   39.3N  66.5W   44.0N  59.2W   46.8N  35.2W
LBAR    33.7N  62.9W   38.9N  59.1W   43.6N  48.0W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        49KTS          59KTS          55KTS          44KTS
DSHP        49KTS          59KTS          55KTS          44KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  27.7N LONCUR =  61.2W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR =   9KT
LATM12 =  27.1N LONM12 =  59.4W DIRM12 = 298DEG SPDM12 =  11KT
LATM24 =  25.8N LONM24 =  57.2W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD =  130NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#13 Postby HurrMark » Sat Aug 13, 2011 7:58 pm

cycloneye wrote:

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 140042
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0042 UTC SUN AUG 14 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN (AL072011) 20110814 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110814  0000   110814  1200   110815  0000   110815  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    27.7N  61.2W   28.6N  63.0W   29.8N  64.6W   31.5N  66.0W
BAMD    27.7N  61.2W   28.2N  62.5W   29.0N  63.7W   30.0N  65.1W
BAMM    27.7N  61.2W   28.4N  62.8W   29.3N  64.2W   30.5N  65.5W
LBAR    27.7N  61.2W   28.7N  62.4W   30.0N  63.1W   31.5N  63.3W
SHIP        30KTS          33KTS          38KTS          43KTS
DSHP        30KTS          33KTS          38KTS          43KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110816  0000   110817  0000   110818  0000   110819  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    34.1N  66.7W   40.3N  64.2W   43.9N  56.7W   44.3N  43.1W
BAMD    32.0N  66.5W   38.6N  67.9W   44.4N  60.5W   49.0N  29.8W
BAMM    32.8N  66.9W   39.3N  66.5W   44.0N  59.2W   46.8N  35.2W
LBAR    33.7N  62.9W   38.9N  59.1W   43.6N  48.0W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        49KTS          59KTS          55KTS          44KTS
DSHP        49KTS          59KTS          55KTS          44KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  27.7N LONCUR =  61.2W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR =   9KT
LATM12 =  27.1N LONM12 =  59.4W DIRM12 = 298DEG SPDM12 =  11KT
LATM24 =  25.8N LONM24 =  57.2W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD =  130NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


So Seven it is...
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