ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

[SouthDadeFish]

Nice burst of convection. Franklin at 5?

[Brent]

Franklin

BEST TRACK: AL06, 373N 612W, 35kts, 1006mb, TS SIX

[TwisterFanatic]

Looks like Franklin decided to pop his head out of his shell.

[brunota2003]

Note: This advisory is for a PREVIOUS storm:

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005

FRANKLIN...THE STORM...NOT THE FORECASTER...HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT.

Amusing that it was also on a Saturday. I was thinking "Franklin...the storm...not the forecaster...has little time left to live." Will we see more antics with this storm?

From that same discussion (and again, fits perfectly): IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT LITTLE OR NOTHING WILL
BE LEFT OF FRANKLIN...THE STORM...NOT THE FORECASTER...IN 2-3 DAYS.

[Extratropical94]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062011
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

...THE SIXTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2011 ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS...NO
THREAT TO LAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.9N 60.4W
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.4 WEST. FRANKLIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H. A MOTION TOWARD
THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE EAST ON SUNDAY.

SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. FRANKLIN IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ON
SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062011
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A
LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION FORMED NEAR OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER. AN AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS AT 0553 UTC SUGGESTS THE CENTRAL
FEATURES OF THE SYSTEM WERE BECOMING BETTER-DEFINED WITH MORE
CURVATURE NOTED. DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES WERE 30 KT AND 35 KT
FROM TAFB/SAB WITH AN AMSU-BASED ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS OF 37 KT.
GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE CONVECTION AND STRUCTURAL
IMPROVEMENTS IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY...THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 35
KT...MAKING THIS SYSTEM THE SIXTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE YEAR.

FRANKLIN DOES NOT HAVE MUCH TIME LEFT TO INTENSIFY AS IT WILL SOON
BE CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO FORECAST
TO INCREASE DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CATCHING THE STORM FROM
BEHIND. THUS...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS SHOWN IN THE
NHC FORECAST...SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THESE TYPES OF NORTHEASTWARD MOVING SYSTEMS
HAVE HISTORICALLY BEEN DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...AND IT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING IF THE STORM BRIEFLY BECOMES A LITTLE STRONGER THAN
PREDICTED.

THE INITIAL MOTION HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AND IS ESTIMATED
AT 055/17. FRANKLIN IS BEING STEERED ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITHIN MID-LATITUDE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A TRACK
TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A MOTION TOWARD THE
EAST AS THE STORM MOVES AROUND THE RIDGE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY...AND LIES JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE ATLANTIC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. A COLD FRONT CAN
BE SEEN A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE NORTHWEST OF FRANKLIN...AND THIS
FEATURE...ALONG WITH COOLER SSTS AND INCREASING SHEAR...SHOULD
CAUSE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM
SMALL SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED BY THE FRONT IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 37.9N 60.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 39.0N 57.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 40.0N 52.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 14/1800Z 40.4N 48.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 15/0600Z 40.0N 43.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Extratropical94]

...THE SIXTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2011 ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS...NO
THREAT TO LAND...

Hello Franklin, officially

[leanne_uk]

Welcome Franklin

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

Up to 40kts.

AL, 06, 2011081312, , BEST, 0, 386N, 589W, 40, 1004, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[HurrMark]

Will this be 6 straight TS that won't reach hurricane status? I say yes!

The last time that happened was 2002. Btw 2002 was the only year since the active AMO phase that started in 1995 that we have had the first six tropical storms fail to reach hurricane status. 2011 most likely will tie or surpass this.

It seems that lately, the "early" storms in general tend to be fairly weak. If we look back at the last 11 seasons and find out what the A-F storms do, this is what we get:

2011: 6 TS, 0 H (assuming 'Franklin' doesn't become a hurricane)
2010: 3 TS, 3 H
2009: 4 TS, 2 H
2008: 4 TS, 2 H
2007: 4 TS, 2 H
2006: 4 TS, 2 H
2005: 3 TS, 3 H
2004: 2 TS, 4 H
2003: 2 TS, 4 H
2002: 6 TS, 0 H
2001: 4 TS, 2 H

So 42 of 66 storms, or 64% do not reach hurricane strength...which is somewhat less than the seasonal average. It probably makes sense since early on, you tend to get Gulf storms which run out of real estate before they can become big storms, or the environment in general is not conducive as later on in the season.

With three more invests out there, I would expect at least one to become a TC...94L is probably the best candidate for 'Gert' in the near term...if that does become Gert, that probably may have difficulties reach hurricane status as well...so seven for seven.

On a side note, with 'Franklin', we will now have 23 storms without a US landfall at TS or greater...continuing the unprecedented streak.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062011
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...A SIGNIFICANT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS
PERSISTED NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN. PASSIVE
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL
EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAD DEVELOPED BETWEEN 08Z AND 10Z...AND THAT COULD
BE WHEN FRANKLIN POSSIBLY REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY OF NEAR 45 KT.
SINCE THAT TIME...HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS ERODED
SOMEWHAT DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
SHEAR AND COOLER WATER BENEATH THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 40 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB...T2.5/35 KT FROM SAB...38 KT FROM
CIRA-AMSU...AND 39 KT FROM UW-CIMSS ADT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/19 BASED PRIMARILY ON MICROWAVE
SATELLITE FIXES. FRANKLIN IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP WESTERLY
MID-LATITUDE FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH THAT IS
MOVING EASTWARD OFF OF THE U.S. NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH
SHOULD KEEP FRANKLIN MOVING IN A GENERAL EASTERLY DIRECTION. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK
AND IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE.

FRANKLIN LIKELY PEAKED EARLIER THIS MORNING AND IS NOW ENTERING A
WEAKENING PHASE AS IT MOVES OVER WATER COOLER THAN 26C AND WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR GRADUALLY INCREASES. FRANKLIN IS FORECAST TO
MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT IN 24-36 HOURS INDUCING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH
BAROCLINIC ENERGY TO CAUSE FRANKLIN TO RE-STRENGTHEN AS A
SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS LOWER
THAN ALL OF THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 39.0N 57.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 39.9N 54.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 40.6N 50.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 15/0000Z 40.6N 45.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 15/1200Z 40.0N 41.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Sanibel]

Of all the systems to form the one that formed off a lingering front developed while the other more deeper ones into the tropics faded.

[HurricaneRobert]

It feels like all storms this season have gone straight to being named.

[stormhunter7]

i am so confused about Franklin... i just dont see a well-defined low leve center.. after the burst of deep convection... the shear took over and the system appears to be in very bad shape. I just dont see a low level center, and am curiours if it still meets the criteria for a "tropical system".

Just my thoughts... not official

[Extratropical94]

i am so confused about Franklin... i just dont see a well-defined low leve center.. after the burst of deep convection... the shear took over and the system appears to be in very bad shape. I just dont see a low level center, and am curiours if it still meets the criteria for a "tropical system".

Just my thoughts... not official

You're not alone with your opinion:

13/1745 UTC 39.5N 56.8W EXTRATROPICAL FRANKLIN -- Atlantic

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062011
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

AFTER THE MORNING FLARE UP OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF
FRANKLIN...INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND COLDER WATER HAVE STARTED
TAKING THEIR TOLL ON THE CYCLONE THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS NOW
SHEARED MORE THAN 90 NMI FROM THE CENTER AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED. FRANKLIN IS QUICKLY TAKING ON THE
APPEARANCE OF A POST TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 35 KT BASED ON A TAFB
SATELLITE DATA-T NUMBER OF T2.5/35 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 070/19. FRANKLIN SHOULD CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE EAST AS IT REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN
WESTERLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH.
AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE VERTICALLY SHALLOW...
FRANKLIN SHOULD DECELERATE AND BE STEERED TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
BY WEAKER LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE LATTER FORECAST PERIODS. THE NHC
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE NHC DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.

FRANKLIN IS CURRENTLY OVER 25C SST WATER AND COOLER WATER LIES AHEAD
OF THE CYCLONE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COLDER WATER SHOULD
INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. AS A RESULT...FRANKLIN COULD BECOME FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT IN 24
HOURS...AND IT STILL APPEARS THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH
BAROCLINIC ENERGY TO CAUSE FRANKLIN TO RE-STRENGTHEN AS A
SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS LOWER THAN
ALL OF THE NHC INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 39.7N 55.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 40.2N 51.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 14/1800Z 40.3N 47.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 15/0600Z 39.9N 43.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 15/1800Z 38.8N 40.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

Last Advisory has been written


POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062011
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

SATELLITE IMAGERY...INCLUDING MICROWAVE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
DATA...INDICATE THAT FRANKLIN HAS BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE LOW IS MOVING 065/23 AND IS EXPECTED TO
TURN EASTWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AFTER THAT...A SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE
SYSTEM WEAKENS TO A TROUGH IN ABOUT 72 HR.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 40.5N 51.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 14/1200Z 40.8N 47.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 15/0000Z 40.5N 42.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 15/1200Z 39.5N 39.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 16/0000Z 38.0N 38.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

Adios!

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062011
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

[HurricaneBelle]

So long, Franklin - it ain't easy being a storm in this year's hostile Atlantic.

[Fyzn94]

That didn't last very long...