ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

[Kohlecane]

I wonder when this will be confirmed by TWC, they are still having it as a Surface Low

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 63.9W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 14 KT

[Florida1118]

Well there expecting it to be franklin by the forecast Adv...

[Macrocane]

Looks very good it has the classical look of tropical system with frontal origin, reminds me of Shary.

[Blown Away]

Will this be 6 straight TS that won't reach hurricane status? I say yes!

[SouthDadeFish]

Will this be 6 straight TS that won't reach hurricane status? I say yes!

The last time that happened was 2002. Btw 2002 was the only year since the active AMO phase that started in 1995 that we have had the first six tropical storms fail to reach hurricane status. 2011 most likely will tie or surpass this.

[Florida1118]

Will this be 6 straight TS that won't reach hurricane status? I say yes!

The last time that happened was 2002. Btw 2002 was the only year since the active AMO phase that started in 1995 that we have had the first six tropical storms fail to reach hurricane status. 2011 most likely will tie or surpass this.

Weeellll it is only the 12th of August, so 6 TC isnt bad. Looks like there could be 7 or 8 by the end of the week as well. So I mean its not like Hurricanes were expected to roam the Basin now anyway. And hey, Im fine with all TS, no worries of anything but Flooding it it stalls or goes on Mts.

[SouthDadeFish]

I've gone back through 1970 and haven't found another season besides 2002 where the first six storms failed to reach hurricane status... Very unique situation.

Edit: Now I've gone back through 1960 and still the only time. I'm not going back further because I'm not sure how much I trust records from these times, as satellite data was just starting to be used around this time.

[Scorpion]

At this rate we will have 8 named storms fail to reach hurricane status

[Kohlecane]

so are they expecting this to become Franklin

[Jevo]

Hooray something to watch and be intere....... oh wait...

The only one that really needs to pay attention is



who am i kidding.. Ill be glancing at 6 from time to time

C-MON 93L!

[Hurricanehink]

I've gone back through 1970 and haven't found another season besides 2002 where the first six storms failed to reach hurricane status... Very unique situation.

Edit: Now I've gone back through 1960 and still the only time. I'm not going back further because I'm not sure how much I trust records from these times, as satellite data was just starting to be used around this time.

Going back to the 1851, 1931 had the first four storms at TS, and 1907 had only five storms and they were all TS. None of them had the first five, or even six storms failing to reach hurricane status.

Perhaps more importantly is the date of the first hurricane. We only have to go back to 2009, in which Bill became the season's first hurricane on August 17th. 2007's Dean was on August 16th, and 2006's Ernesto wasn't the first hurricane until August 27th.

[TheBurn]

21:45Z VIS TD-SIX

[Macrocane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

As I've said earlier this reminds me to Shary, and looking back at its advisories in the first ones it was expected to peak at 45 kt, but in the end it reached minimal hurricane strength, of course Shary had a little more time over warm waters so this may not be the case for TD 6, anyway there may be a low chance don't you think?

[Ptarmigan]

2002 was an El Nino season. 2002 was pretty bad and could of been really bad if Isidore hit New Orleans as a major hurricane. Some seasons that had late start in hurricanes turned out to be bad like 2007. I think the lull of hurricanes is not a good thing because I think we could go into full throttle with hurricanes soon........


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Ptarmigan]

Will this be 6 straight TS that won't reach hurricane status? I say yes!

The last time that happened was 2002. Btw 2002 was the only year since the active AMO phase that started in 1995 that we have had the first six tropical storms fail to reach hurricane status. 2011 most likely will tie or surpass this.

2002's first hurricane was Gustav in September.

[CrazyC83]

Looks like a tropical storm to me...Franklin at 11?

[Macrocane]

Looks like a tropical storm to me...Franklin at 11?

I say no unless cloud tops get cool again, that's a good possibility though.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062011
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

THROUGH 0000 UTC...THE DEPRESSION WAS MAINTAINING A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST...WITH SSM/IS AND TRMM DATA NEAR 2330 UTC SHOWING SOME
CONVECTIVE CURVATURE NEAR THE CENTER. SINCE THEN...THE CONVECTION
HAS DIMINISHED...ALTHOUGH IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS IS A DIURNAL
MINIMUM OR THE START OF A WEAKENING TREND. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 30 KT...AND THAT REMAINS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 065/19. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR 24 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A MOTION
TOWARD THE EAST THAT SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE
INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND IT LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE DEPRESSION IS JUST SOUTHEAST OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND IS MOVING
TOWARD COOLER WATERS. IN ADDITION...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE AFTER 6-12 HOURS. THEREFORE...THERE IS ONLY A SHORT
WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS THE DEPRESSION MERGES WITH THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY WITHIN THE
FRONTAL ZONE BY 72 HR...AND THIS COULD EVEN OCCUR EARLIER. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LESS INTENSE THAN THE FORECAST OF
THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 36.6N 61.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 37.8N 58.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 39.3N 54.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 40.3N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 15/0000Z 40.3N 45.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Hurricane Jed]

Didn't expect this one to develop before the other invests. How intriguing.