ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

[Fyzn94]

Oooh.....this looks like another Cindy.

[northjaxpro]

Oooh.....this looks like another Cindy.

Yes indeed. 95L will have the same result as well, which is to become extratropical in a couple of days in the North Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track for 95L

AL, 95, 2011081218, , BEST, 0, 356N, 647W, 30, 1011, DB

[SouthDadeFish]

12/1745 UTC 35.3N 64.8W ST1.5 95L -- Atlantic

In my opinion I think we'll see STD/TD 6 out of this by the end of the day. Dvorak estimates already support depression status.

[apocalypt-flyer]

Well doesn't the Atlantic look like an assembly line and a HALF at the moment.

[wxman57]

Looks like a TS to me now. And look right behind it near 32N/72W - another one is developing and it's not even an invest yet.

[underthwx]

Looks like a TS to me now. And look right behind it near 32N/72W - another one is developing and it's not even an invest yet.

Is there a recon flight scheduled?

[BigB0882]

I thought this was what was left of Emily. Confusing!

[wxman57]

Looks like a TS to me now. And look right behind it near 32N/72W - another one is developing and it's not even an invest yet.

Is there a recon flight scheduled?

I don't know. They're both heading out to sea so no big deal.

[SouthDadeFish]

I really think this should be classified at 5pm. I see no reason why it is not a tropical/subtropical cyclone.

[JonathanBelles]

I have to agree. Although most satellite scat passes have missed 95L, the few that have hit the sides of it have shown it has west and south winds on corresponding sides. This looks like a quickly building tropical storm with a short window of opportunity. My only concern is that it is still cold cored, and will only be marginally warm core in 24 hours.

[lester]

It's 06L now:

[16:12] (@s2k_twitter) RENUMBER al95 al06

[16:12] (@s2k_twitter) BEST TRACK: AL06, 357N 647W, 30kts, 1011mb, TD INVEST

- לסטר

[plasticup]

Yep, that's a good looking storm. And check out Bermuda soaking up that rainband. They needed the rain.

[Florida1118]

Is this Franklin or TD6? I wonder...I think its F.

[SouthDadeFish]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al952011_al062011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108122008
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[cycloneye]

AL, 06, 2011081218, , BEST, 0, 357N, 647W, 30, TD 1011,

[SouthDadeFish]

I really think this should be classified at 5pm. I see no reason why it is not a tropical/subtropical cyclone.

The NHC listened to me

[Extratropical94]

Advisories on TD6 (maybe future Franklin) can be posted here.

[Kohlecane]

AL, 06, 2011081218, , BEST, 0, 357N, 647W, 30, TD 1011,

THank-a-You NHC

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062011
2100 UTC FRI AUG 12 2011

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 63.9W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 63.9W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.7N 64.7W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 37.0N 61.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 38.5N 57.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 39.8N 53.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 40.6N 49.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 50SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z...MERGED WITH FRONT

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.0N 63.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062011
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NORTH OF BERMUDA...MOVING AWAY FROM THE
UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.0N 63.9W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM N OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26
KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART

NNNN


TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062011
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN EMBEDDED WITHIN A BAROCLINIC
ZONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE PAST DAY OR
TWO HAS LOST ITS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE WARM ATLANTIC
WATERS. IN ADDITION...DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER THE
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. BASED
ON ITS PRESENTATION IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EARLIER BUOY
REPORTS...THIS SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT. SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS
NOT FORECAST SINCE THE DEPRESSION SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...FAIRLY DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR...AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS ONCE THE CYCLONE MOVES
OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 25C AND INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING 065/14 AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP-LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND A TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS FLOW PATTERN IS
NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THAT
SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING IN THE SAME GENERAL HEADING UNTIL IT
MERGES WITH A FRONT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER
THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 36.0N 63.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 37.0N 61.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 38.5N 57.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 39.8N 53.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 40.6N 49.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART