CPAC: FERNANDA - Tropical Depression

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#81 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 16, 2011 9:11 pm

I'd go with 50 knts.
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#82 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 16, 2011 9:23 pm

Cloud tops have warmed...
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#83 Postby Chacor » Tue Aug 16, 2011 9:30 pm

Still 45 knots in the best-track at 00z.
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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Tropical Storm

#84 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 16, 2011 9:45 pm

TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062011
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 16 2011

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE STORM REMAINS
WELL ORGANIZED...WITH WELL-DEFINED CURVED BANDS. HOWEVER THE CLOUD
TOPS HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...INDICATING
A DECREASE IN THE INTENSITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS DECREASE
IS PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH A DIURNAL FLUCTUATION AND IS LIKELY
ONLY TEMPORARY. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 45 KT SO THE
CURRENT WIND SPEED IS HELD AT THAT VALUE. FERNANDA CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT STRONG AND FAIRLY SYMMETRIC UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW... AND IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WATERS WARMER THAN 26 DEG C FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. HENCE THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING A HURRICANE. THIS IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY
GUIDANCE. IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS PREDICTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR
30 KT OVER FERNANDA. THEREFORE THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY BY
DAY 5 AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW AROUND THAT TIME.

BASED ON THE LATEST FIXES AN ADDITIONAL...SLIGHT...SOUTHWARD
ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK HAS BEEN MADE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS
WESTWARD NEAR 7 KT. NOT MUCH CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING. A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
NEAR 140W LONGITUDE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOMORROW. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN
THE TRACK GUIDANCE...WITH THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS LYING ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL SUITE AND THE ECMWF AND UKMET
NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY A TAD SLOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND JUST SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 11.5N 136.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 11.7N 137.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 12.2N 138.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 12.9N 140.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 13.7N 141.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 15.5N 145.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 21/0000Z 16.0N 149.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 22/0000Z 16.0N 153.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Tropical Storm

#85 Postby Cyclenall » Wed Aug 17, 2011 1:30 am

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Tropical Storm Fernanda was around 60 knots minimum I think. It underwent Rapid Intensification despite the NHC's forecast of very slow strengthening to a peak of 45 knots. To be honest, when I first read the starting discussion I thought this was definitely not right. There are a couple of reasons for this: 1. It's too far south to be affected by the stable airmass to its north and the track took it just under the "tongue" of stable and cool air (before the current NHC forecasts which now takes it further north) and 2. Nothing was taken into account once it was in the middle of the Cpac for the 120 hour forecast mark...assuming it would be nearly dead like the majority of Epac crossers are to the Cpac once they reach there. The SST's get much hotter by the time it gets there and the wind shear probably wouldn't kill it off since it's already survived it fine in its initial formation process (in fact, I'm surprised it made it). What this amounts too is I think it will survive the full forecast period and it can make 6/6 in the Epac for hurricanes. Now the question is will TD7-E make it 7/7?

I believe the eye in question was basically a real eye with a lot of dry air involved...hence we have a debate over what was that cloud-free center, an eye or just dry air. This is a classic characteristic in these types of systems that develop rapidly when at weak TS status AND in an environment with a lot of dry air plus a stable airmass to the north. Right now I fear the stable airmass is having an effect on Fernanda by warming the cloud tops however the organization remains the same.
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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Tropical Storm

#86 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 17, 2011 3:34 am

The NHC in there previous discussion stated that its going through a period of fluctuation and it should re-strengthen. Right now cloud tops are slowly cooling and convection is increasing...It did look much better earlier today however.
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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Tropical Storm

#87 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 17, 2011 3:45 am

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 170834
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062011
200 AM PDT WED AUG 17 2011

ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE WELL ORGANIZED... DEEP
CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. SOME
THUNDERSTORM CELLS HAVE RECENTLY BEGUN TO REDEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER
AND WITHIN A CURVED BAND TO THE SOUTHEAST. IT APPEARS THAT THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO SPREAD
OVER RELATIVELY COOL WATERS AND STABLE AIR. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE
NOT CHANGED MUCH AND STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45
KNOTS. THERE IS SOME ROOM FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AS INDICATED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BUT IN GENERAL...MOST OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE
NO LONGER BRING FERNANDA TO HURRICANE STATUS. IN THE LATTER PART OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOL WATERS
WILL INDUCE WEAKENING AND...AS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...FERNANDA
SHOULD WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW AROUND THAT TIME.

FERNANDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
NEAR 140W LONGITUDE AND THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE CYCLONE
TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST SOON. BEYOND 4 DAYS...THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TO THE WEST AS IT WEAKENS AND
BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO HAVE A LARGE SPREAD WITH THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS LYING ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL SUITE AND GLOBAL MODELS NEAR
THE SOUTHERN EDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE GLOBAL
MODELS.
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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Tropical Storm

#88 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 17, 2011 9:44 am

TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062011
800 AM PDT WED AUG 17 2011

FERNANDA HAS A SOMEWHAT HOLLOW APPEARANCE. THE EXTENT AND DEPTH OF
ITS CONVECTION HAS BEEN DECREASING...POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO THE
INGESTION OF A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS FROM THE NORTH.
WHATEVER REMAINING CONVECTION IS IN A BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER...SEVERAL MICROWAVE PASSES HAVE
INDICATED NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CENTRAL FEATURES OF THE
STORM...WITH A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION AND OUTFLOW THAT REMAINS
WELL ESTABLISHED. CURRENT CI NUMBERS REMAIN AT 3.0...SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/08...WITH RECENT FIXES
POSSIBLY SUGGESTING A MOTION SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT. FERNANDA IS
APPROACHING THE WESTERN END OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A LONGWAVE
TROUGH ALONG 140W IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN ITS WAKE. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
TRACK OF FERNANDA TURNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE
WEAKNESS BUT THEN BENDING TOWARD THE WEST AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS
AND FERNANDA GETS CAUGHT UNDER A LOW-/MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THERE IS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS/HWRF/GFDL
FAVORING A MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS AND MORE NORTHWARD FORECAST
TRACKS. THE UKMET/ECMWF SHOW STRONGER RIDGING AND ARE ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK HAS
CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY AND IS GENERALLY IN THE
MIDDLE OF THESE TWO CAMPS...TO THE LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCE.

THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS FERNANDA EMBEDDED IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
DECREASE ALONG THE PATH OF THE STORM...ALBEIT SLOWLY...AND FERNANDA
IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INGESTING A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE
SHOULD ESSENTIALLY MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
AFTER THAT...INCREASING SHEAR RELATED TO A UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC
SHEAR AXIS SOUTH OF HAWAII AND EVEN COOLER WATERS SHOULD RESULT IN
A WEAKENING TREND. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 11.8N 137.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 12.2N 138.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 13.0N 140.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 14.0N 142.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 14.9N 143.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 15.2N 146.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 16.5N 151.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/1200Z 16.5N 155.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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#89 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Aug 17, 2011 3:19 pm

17/1800 UTC 12.0N 138.0W T2.5/3.0 FERNANDA -- East Pacific

18Z BT: EP, 06, 2011081718, , BEST, 0, 120N, 1380W, 45, 1001, TS
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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Tropical Storm

#90 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 17, 2011 3:37 pm

TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062011
200 PM PDT WED AUG 17 2011

ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IN FERNANDA HAS STAGED A COMEBACK DURING
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE OVERALL DEPTH OF THE CONVECTION IS
RELATIVELY SHALLOW. MICROWAVE IMAGERY STILL INDICATES THAT THE
CYCLONE IS MAINTAINING A WELL ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE...WITH
AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE AND PLENTY OF CURVED BANDS. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED SINCE THIS MORNING...
AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS THEREFORE HELD AT 45 KT.

FERNANDA HAS BEGUN MOVING ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 290/07. THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE
RESPONDING TO A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT HAS
FORMED IN RESPONSE TO A LONGWAVE TROUGH NOW SLOWLY LIFTING OUT
ALONG 140W. THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CAUSE FERNANDA TO
CONTINUE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 48-72 DAYS. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD ONCE
FERNANDA WEAKENS AND BECOMES A MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE FORECAST
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO SINCE THE
PREVIOUS CYCLE...AND THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.

ALTHOUGH FERNANDA REMAINS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...IT HAS
ALREADY BEGUN TO MOVE OVER MARGINALLY WARM WATERS. THE PROXIMITY
OF THE NEARBY STRATOCUMULUS FIELD SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE MAY ALSO
BE TAPPING A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS. THIS MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE GREATER POLEWARD
COMPONENT OF MOTION THE STORM IS NOW EXPERIENCING SHOULD BRING THE
STORM OVER EVEN COOLER WATERS AFTER 24 HOURS...AND STEADY WEAKENING
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY THEN. THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING SHEAR AND
NEAR 25C WATERS AFTER 48 HOURS COULD RESULT IN A RATHER RAPID
DEMISE. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS NUDGED DOWNWARD...AT THE
LOW END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...WITH POST-TROPICAL STATUS NOW
FORECAST SOONER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 12.1N 138.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 12.8N 139.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 13.6N 141.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 14.4N 142.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 15.1N 144.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 16.0N 148.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 21/1800Z 16.6N 153.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Tropical Storm

#91 Postby Epsilon_Fan » Wed Aug 17, 2011 6:04 pm

has Fernanda ever reached hurricane status? If not, it looks like she has only a small window to make it and keep the EPac perfect for hurricanes
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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Tropical Storm

#92 Postby Florida1118 » Wed Aug 17, 2011 6:05 pm

Epsilon_Fan wrote:has Fernanda ever reached hurricane status? If not, it looks like she has only a small window to make it and keep the EPac perfect for hurricanes

Nope, and it doesnt appear she will... :(
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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Tropical Storm

#93 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 17, 2011 6:35 pm

Epsilon_Fan wrote:has Fernanda ever reached hurricane status? If not, it looks like she has only a small window to make it and keep the EPac perfect for hurricanes

Convection is increasing and ADT estimates are increasing. Will see what it does in the next 3 1/2 hours...
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#94 Postby RL3AO » Wed Aug 17, 2011 6:39 pm

Nearing 139W. Running out of time before she crosses that magical line.
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Re:

#95 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 17, 2011 8:07 pm

RL3AO wrote:Nearing 139W. Running out of time before she crosses that magical line.


Wouldn't it still count if it peaked west of 140 though?
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Re: Re:

#96 Postby RL3AO » Wed Aug 17, 2011 8:17 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
RL3AO wrote:Nearing 139W. Running out of time before she crosses that magical line.


Wouldn't it still count if it peaked west of 140 though?


You're the Wikipedia guy. You tell me.

She really is trying, but I'm not sure if she has the core.

Image
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#97 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 17, 2011 9:30 pm

It would count regardless if it occurs in the CPCH's AOR or not. (and I am a Wikipedia guy)
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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Tropical Storm

#98 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 17, 2011 9:35 pm

TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062011
800 PM PDT WED AUG 17 2011

DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE STORM CENTER HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY...AND THE CURRENT WIND SPEED IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KT
USING A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. GIVEN THAT
FERNANDA WILL BE MOVING INTO A RELATIVELY STABLE AIR MASS AND
TRAVERSING MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. BY 48
HOURS...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KT
AND THE STORM SHOULD BE ON A WEAKENING TREND. AROUND DAY 4...AN
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE 25-30 KT OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON THE
CYCLONE WHICH WILL LIKELY REDUCE FERNANDA TO A REMNANT LOW. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF 140W
LONGITUDE HAS CAUSED THE HEADING OF FERNANDA TO TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ONLY SLIGHTLY TO
THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE
IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION WITH JUST A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE
NEXT 3 DAYS. BY DAY 4...THE WEAK CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO TURN
WESTWARD AS IT MOVES MORE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...FERNANDA WILL ENTER THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY AROUND 1200 UTC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 12.6N 139.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 13.2N 140.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 14.1N 142.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 14.7N 143.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 15.4N 145.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 16.5N 150.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 17.0N 154.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Tropical Storm

#99 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 17, 2011 9:49 pm

Image

Looks better.
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#100 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 17, 2011 10:29 pm

I'd go with 55 knts now.
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