CPAC: FERNANDA - Tropical Depression
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Yep I also agree, doesn't look like like a hurricane on presentation basis only, so 60kts probasbly is a good call!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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Extratropical94
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- Posts: 3535
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Re: Re:
Chacor wrote:Extratropical94 wrote:Dvorak is up to 3.5/3.5 - 65 knots
BT supports 55 knots.
Same situation as with Greg yesterday.
3.5 is 55 knots. 4.0 is 65 knots. The BT is actually in agreement with the Dvorak, and not under. Same as Greg yesterday.
My fault, I got the numbers mixed up.
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
WTPA41 PHFO 181436
TCDCP1
TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062011
500 AM HST THU AUG 18 2011
DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS OVER AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER OF
FERNANDA...WITH A SMALL COLD CONVECTIVE AREA JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE
LLCC REGISTERING NEAR MINUS 80 DEGREES CELSIUS. CPHC DERIVED A
FINAL T NUMBER OF 3.5 WHILE SAB DERIVED A 4.0 AT 1200 UTC...WITH A
FINAL TAFB T NUMBER SLIGHTLY HIGHER STILL. UPON SATELLITE
INSPECTION...THE UNCHANGED SHORT-TERM ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM
AND THE LACK OF AN EYE INDICATES THAT FERNANDA IS A STRONG TROPICAL
STORM JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. THEREFORE WE WILL MAINTAIN 55
KNOTS AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. SINCE FERNANDA WILL BE MOVING OVER
MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND NEUTRAL VERTICAL SHEAR...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEYOND 12 HOURS AND A
WEAKENING TREND SHOULD BEGIN AT THAT TIME. BY THE TIME FERNANDA
PASSES SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
WEAKENED TO A REMNANT LOW.
LITTLE HAS CHANGED SYNOPTICALLY SINCE THE HANDOFF FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER...FERNANDA HAS SPED UP SLIGHTLY
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300
DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. THE LATITUDE GAIN CONTINUES DUE TO A WEAKNESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF FERNANDA AND JUST WEST OF 140W.
HOWEVER AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS BEYOND 12 HOURS...AS GFS AND NOGAPS
FORECASTS...SYSTEM MOVEMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE WESTERLY. LATER
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FERNANDA
OR ITS REMNANT DECREASES...THIS SYSTEM WILL RESPOND TO LOWER LEVEL
STEERING AND MOTION WILL CLOSELY MIRROR TRADE WIND FLOW. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AT ALL TAU.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/1500Z 13.7N 141.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 14.4N 142.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 15.1N 144.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 15.8N 146.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 16.3N 148.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 17.0N 152.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 16.8N 156.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER POWELL
TCDCP1
TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062011
500 AM HST THU AUG 18 2011
DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS OVER AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER OF
FERNANDA...WITH A SMALL COLD CONVECTIVE AREA JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE
LLCC REGISTERING NEAR MINUS 80 DEGREES CELSIUS. CPHC DERIVED A
FINAL T NUMBER OF 3.5 WHILE SAB DERIVED A 4.0 AT 1200 UTC...WITH A
FINAL TAFB T NUMBER SLIGHTLY HIGHER STILL. UPON SATELLITE
INSPECTION...THE UNCHANGED SHORT-TERM ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM
AND THE LACK OF AN EYE INDICATES THAT FERNANDA IS A STRONG TROPICAL
STORM JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. THEREFORE WE WILL MAINTAIN 55
KNOTS AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. SINCE FERNANDA WILL BE MOVING OVER
MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND NEUTRAL VERTICAL SHEAR...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEYOND 12 HOURS AND A
WEAKENING TREND SHOULD BEGIN AT THAT TIME. BY THE TIME FERNANDA
PASSES SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
WEAKENED TO A REMNANT LOW.
LITTLE HAS CHANGED SYNOPTICALLY SINCE THE HANDOFF FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER...FERNANDA HAS SPED UP SLIGHTLY
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300
DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. THE LATITUDE GAIN CONTINUES DUE TO A WEAKNESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF FERNANDA AND JUST WEST OF 140W.
HOWEVER AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS BEYOND 12 HOURS...AS GFS AND NOGAPS
FORECASTS...SYSTEM MOVEMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE WESTERLY. LATER
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FERNANDA
OR ITS REMNANT DECREASES...THIS SYSTEM WILL RESPOND TO LOWER LEVEL
STEERING AND MOTION WILL CLOSELY MIRROR TRADE WIND FLOW. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AT ALL TAU.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/1500Z 13.7N 141.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 14.4N 142.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 15.1N 144.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 15.8N 146.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 16.3N 148.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 17.0N 152.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 16.8N 156.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER POWELL
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Yellow Evan
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Kingarabian
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WTPA41 PHFO 182102
TCDCP1
TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062011
1100 AM HST THU AUG 18 2011
FERNANDA APPEARS TO BE STARTING TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. SATELLITE DERIVED UPPER LEVEL WINDS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CYCLONE ARE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 30 TO 40 KT...AND
THE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASINGLY ELONGATED AND
ASYMMETRIC SYSTEM. A COUPLE OF HELPFUL MICROWAVE PASSES EARLY THIS
MORNING INDICATE THAT FOR NOW...FERNANDA IS MAINTAINING A
WELL-ORGANIZED CORE AND THE CENTER FIXES LEND CREDENCE TO THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 300/11.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CPHC AND JTWC WERE 3.5...WHILE
SAB HAD 4.0. THE CURRENT INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 55 KT.
FERNANDA HAS PROBABLY ALREADY PEAKED IN INTENSITY. FERNANDA IS
LOCATED BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST
OF HAWAII...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF FERNANDA. THE
GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER LOW TO MOVE WESTWARD IN TANDEM
WITH FERNANDA...MAINTAINING SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM THROUGH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...FERNANDA WILL BE MOVING
OVER GRADUALLY COOLER WATER FOR THE FIRST 48 TO 60 HOURS. ALTHOUGH
SSTS WARM OVER THE FORECAST TRACK BEYOND 60 HOURS...BY THAT TIME
THE DEEP CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE WELL SEPARATED FROM THE LLCC.
FERNANDA IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE REDEVELOPING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO STEER FERNANDA ON A MORE
WESTWARD COURSE. IN ADDITION...AS THE DEEP CONVECTION SEPARATES
FROM THE LLCC...THE LLCC WILL BE STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL TRADE
WIND FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MODEL
ENVELOPE...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/2100Z 14.6N 142.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 15.4N 143.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 16.2N 145.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 16.7N 147.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 17.1N 150.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 17.4N 154.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 17.3N 157.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD
TCDCP1
TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062011
1100 AM HST THU AUG 18 2011
FERNANDA APPEARS TO BE STARTING TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. SATELLITE DERIVED UPPER LEVEL WINDS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CYCLONE ARE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 30 TO 40 KT...AND
THE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASINGLY ELONGATED AND
ASYMMETRIC SYSTEM. A COUPLE OF HELPFUL MICROWAVE PASSES EARLY THIS
MORNING INDICATE THAT FOR NOW...FERNANDA IS MAINTAINING A
WELL-ORGANIZED CORE AND THE CENTER FIXES LEND CREDENCE TO THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 300/11.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CPHC AND JTWC WERE 3.5...WHILE
SAB HAD 4.0. THE CURRENT INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 55 KT.
FERNANDA HAS PROBABLY ALREADY PEAKED IN INTENSITY. FERNANDA IS
LOCATED BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST
OF HAWAII...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF FERNANDA. THE
GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER LOW TO MOVE WESTWARD IN TANDEM
WITH FERNANDA...MAINTAINING SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM THROUGH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...FERNANDA WILL BE MOVING
OVER GRADUALLY COOLER WATER FOR THE FIRST 48 TO 60 HOURS. ALTHOUGH
SSTS WARM OVER THE FORECAST TRACK BEYOND 60 HOURS...BY THAT TIME
THE DEEP CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE WELL SEPARATED FROM THE LLCC.
FERNANDA IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE REDEVELOPING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO STEER FERNANDA ON A MORE
WESTWARD COURSE. IN ADDITION...AS THE DEEP CONVECTION SEPARATES
FROM THE LLCC...THE LLCC WILL BE STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL TRADE
WIND FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MODEL
ENVELOPE...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/2100Z 14.6N 142.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 15.4N 143.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 16.2N 145.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 16.7N 147.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 17.1N 150.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 17.4N 154.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 17.3N 157.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD
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RIP Kobe Bryant
WTPA41 PHFO 190230
TCDCP1
TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062011
500 PM HST THU AUG 18 2011
FERNANDA CONTINUES TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE CIMSS VERTICAL SHEAR MAGNITUDE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 20 KT FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CYCLONE. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE
DEEP CONVECTION PULSING NEAR THE CENTER WITH THE SHEAR CAUSING TO
SYSTEM TO BECOME ASYMMETRIC. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KT.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CPHC AND JTWC WERE 3.5...WHILE
SAB HAD 4.0. THE CURRENT INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 55 KT
THOUGH THIS MAY BE A BIT GENEROUS. FERNANDA HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN
INTENSITY WITH NO FURTHER STRENGTHENING ANTICIPATED. FERNANDA LIES
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF
FERNANDA. THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER LOW AND RIDGE TO
MOVE WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH FERNANDA...MAINTAINING SOUTHERLY SHEAR
OVER THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. IN
ADDITION...FERNANDA WILL BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER FOR
THE FIRST 48 TO 60 HOURS. ALTHOUGH SSTS WARM OVER THE FORECAST
TRACK BEYOND 60 HOURS...BY THAT TIME THE DEEP CONVECTION IS LIKELY
TO BE WELL SEPARATED FROM THE LLCC.
FERNANDA IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE REDEVELOPING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO STEER FERNANDA ON A MORE
WESTWARD COURSE. IN ADDITION...AS THE DEEP CONVECTION SEPARATES
FROM THE LLCC...THE LLCC WILL BE STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL TRADE
WIND FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE WHICH
HAS SHIFTED A BIT SOUTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE. THE
FORECAST TRACK IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0300Z 14.8N 142.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 15.5N 144.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 16.1N 146.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 16.6N 148.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 17.0N 150.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 17.2N 154.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 23/0000Z 17.3N 158.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/0000Z 17.4N 162.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BURKE
TCDCP1
TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062011
500 PM HST THU AUG 18 2011
FERNANDA CONTINUES TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE CIMSS VERTICAL SHEAR MAGNITUDE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 20 KT FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CYCLONE. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE
DEEP CONVECTION PULSING NEAR THE CENTER WITH THE SHEAR CAUSING TO
SYSTEM TO BECOME ASYMMETRIC. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KT.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CPHC AND JTWC WERE 3.5...WHILE
SAB HAD 4.0. THE CURRENT INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 55 KT
THOUGH THIS MAY BE A BIT GENEROUS. FERNANDA HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN
INTENSITY WITH NO FURTHER STRENGTHENING ANTICIPATED. FERNANDA LIES
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF
FERNANDA. THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER LOW AND RIDGE TO
MOVE WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH FERNANDA...MAINTAINING SOUTHERLY SHEAR
OVER THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. IN
ADDITION...FERNANDA WILL BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER FOR
THE FIRST 48 TO 60 HOURS. ALTHOUGH SSTS WARM OVER THE FORECAST
TRACK BEYOND 60 HOURS...BY THAT TIME THE DEEP CONVECTION IS LIKELY
TO BE WELL SEPARATED FROM THE LLCC.
FERNANDA IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE REDEVELOPING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO STEER FERNANDA ON A MORE
WESTWARD COURSE. IN ADDITION...AS THE DEEP CONVECTION SEPARATES
FROM THE LLCC...THE LLCC WILL BE STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL TRADE
WIND FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE WHICH
HAS SHIFTED A BIT SOUTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE. THE
FORECAST TRACK IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0300Z 14.8N 142.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 15.5N 144.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 16.1N 146.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 16.6N 148.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 17.0N 150.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 17.2N 154.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 23/0000Z 17.3N 158.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/0000Z 17.4N 162.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BURKE
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Oops!
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062011
1100 PM HST THU AUG 18 2011
...FERNANDA IS WEAKENING...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 143.6W
ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM ESE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 143.6 WEST.
FERNANDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO *** [PLACE EXPECTED MOTION INFO
HERE] ***
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ***
[ADD ANY ADDITIONAL INTENSITY INFO HERE] ***
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM HST.
$$
FORECASTER CRAIG
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062011
1100 PM HST THU AUG 18 2011
...FERNANDA IS WEAKENING...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 143.6W
ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM ESE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 143.6 WEST.
FERNANDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO *** [PLACE EXPECTED MOTION INFO
HERE] ***
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ***
[ADD ANY ADDITIONAL INTENSITY INFO HERE] ***
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM HST.
$$
FORECASTER CRAIG
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WTPA41 PHFO 190901
TCDCP1
TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062011
1100 PM HST THU AUG 18 2011
FERNANDA IS FALLING APART...AS INDICATED BY THE DRAMATIC COLLAPSE OF
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. ALSO...THERE IS NO SIGN OF
ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE 15 TO 20 KT SOUTH
SOUTHEAST SHEAR...AS ESTIMATED BY CIMSS...IS DOING A GOOD JOB AT
SHREDDING APART FERNANDA. FERNANDA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST AT 10 KT.
THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM CPHC WAS 3.0...WHILE JTWC AND
SAB CAME IN WITH 2.5. WENT WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT...
WHICH IS PROBABLY TOO GENEROUS. FERNANDA IS SITUATED BETWEEN AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII...AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF FERNANDA. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE
UPPER LOW AND RIDGE TO MOVE TO THE WEST IN TANDEM WITH FERNANDA...
MAINTAINING A SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THAT NOT ONLY WILL THE
SHEAR PERSIST BUT WILL GREATLY INCREASE WITH TIME. SSTS WILL BE OF
NO HELP AS WELL WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF FERNANDA. BASED
ON ALL OF THE ABOVE...HAVE SPED UP FERNANDA/S DEMISE TO 48 HOURS.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO DSHP. LOOKING AT THE MOST RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGES...THE SYSTEM MAY BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT
LOW IN 24 HOURS.
FERNANDA IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN A MID LEVEL RIDGE
TO ITS NORTH. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TURN THE MUCH WEAKENED AND SHALLOWER
SYSTEM TO THE WEST. WITH TIME...THE DEEP CONVECTION...IF THERE IS
ANY LEFT...WILL BE SEPARATED FROM THE LLCC...AND THE LLCC WILL BE
STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL TRADE WINDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES IN THE CENTER OF A
TIGHT MODEL ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0900Z 15.3N 143.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 15.8N 145.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 16.3N 147.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 16.7N 149.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 17.0N 151.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/0600Z 17.2N 154.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/0600Z 17.4N 158.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...DISSIPATED
120H 24/0600Z 17.5N 163.0W 10 KT 10 MPH...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER CRAIG
TCDCP1
TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062011
1100 PM HST THU AUG 18 2011
FERNANDA IS FALLING APART...AS INDICATED BY THE DRAMATIC COLLAPSE OF
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. ALSO...THERE IS NO SIGN OF
ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE 15 TO 20 KT SOUTH
SOUTHEAST SHEAR...AS ESTIMATED BY CIMSS...IS DOING A GOOD JOB AT
SHREDDING APART FERNANDA. FERNANDA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST AT 10 KT.
THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM CPHC WAS 3.0...WHILE JTWC AND
SAB CAME IN WITH 2.5. WENT WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT...
WHICH IS PROBABLY TOO GENEROUS. FERNANDA IS SITUATED BETWEEN AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII...AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF FERNANDA. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE
UPPER LOW AND RIDGE TO MOVE TO THE WEST IN TANDEM WITH FERNANDA...
MAINTAINING A SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THAT NOT ONLY WILL THE
SHEAR PERSIST BUT WILL GREATLY INCREASE WITH TIME. SSTS WILL BE OF
NO HELP AS WELL WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF FERNANDA. BASED
ON ALL OF THE ABOVE...HAVE SPED UP FERNANDA/S DEMISE TO 48 HOURS.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO DSHP. LOOKING AT THE MOST RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGES...THE SYSTEM MAY BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT
LOW IN 24 HOURS.
FERNANDA IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN A MID LEVEL RIDGE
TO ITS NORTH. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TURN THE MUCH WEAKENED AND SHALLOWER
SYSTEM TO THE WEST. WITH TIME...THE DEEP CONVECTION...IF THERE IS
ANY LEFT...WILL BE SEPARATED FROM THE LLCC...AND THE LLCC WILL BE
STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL TRADE WINDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES IN THE CENTER OF A
TIGHT MODEL ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0900Z 15.3N 143.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 15.8N 145.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 16.3N 147.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 16.7N 149.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 17.0N 151.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/0600Z 17.2N 154.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/0600Z 17.4N 158.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...DISSIPATED
120H 24/0600Z 17.5N 163.0W 10 KT 10 MPH...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER CRAIG
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Rapid weakening:
WTPA41 PHFO 191455
TCDCP1
TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062011
500 AM HST FRI AUG 19 2011
THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...OR LLCC...OF
MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA IS EVIDENT IN INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING. PRIOR TO THE GOES11 ECLIPSE...THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WAS COMPLETELY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...AROUND 1100 UTC...A SINGLE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF THE APPARENT LLCC. SINCE THAT TIME...THIS
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO GROW IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...
WITH HIGHEST TOPS OF THE CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS EXTENDING UP TO ABOUT
48 THOUSAND FEET. DESPITE THIS SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS...
FERNANDA CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE IN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...WITH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF ABOUT 14 KT FROM 170 DEGREES BASED ON THE
LATEST AVAILABLE UW/CIMSS ANALYSIS. THE TROPICAL STORM ALSO IS IN A
REGION OF LESS THAN FAVORABLE SSTS OF ABOUT 26 DEGREES C...AND VERY
LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES ACCORDING TO THE MOST RECENT CIRA
ANALYSIS.
THE LLCC OF FERNANDA IS MOVING 280/10. THE LATEST SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CPHC...JTWC AND SAB WERE ALL 3.0. DUE TO
THE PROLONGED LOSS OF DEEP CONVECTION AND THE POOR APPEARANCE OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY....HAVE ASSIGNED A
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KT. FERNANDA REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO ITS WEST...AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS
EAST. THE GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE UPPER LOW
AND RIDGE WILL MOVE WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH FERNANDA...MAINTAINING
SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THAT NOT ONLY WILL THE SHEAR
PERSIST...BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH TIME.
FERNANDA IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD
LATER TODAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TURN THE MUCH WEAKENED AND
SHALLOWER SYSTEM TOWARD THE WEST. WITH TIME...THE DEEP CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY BE SEPARATED FROM THE LLCC...AND THE LLCC WILL BE
STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST...AND
LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/1500Z 15.1N 144.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 15.5N 146.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 15.9N 148.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 16.2N 150.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 16.3N 152.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/1200Z 16.5N 156.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON
WTPA41 PHFO 191455
TCDCP1
TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062011
500 AM HST FRI AUG 19 2011
THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...OR LLCC...OF
MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA IS EVIDENT IN INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING. PRIOR TO THE GOES11 ECLIPSE...THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WAS COMPLETELY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...AROUND 1100 UTC...A SINGLE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF THE APPARENT LLCC. SINCE THAT TIME...THIS
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO GROW IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...
WITH HIGHEST TOPS OF THE CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS EXTENDING UP TO ABOUT
48 THOUSAND FEET. DESPITE THIS SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS...
FERNANDA CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE IN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...WITH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF ABOUT 14 KT FROM 170 DEGREES BASED ON THE
LATEST AVAILABLE UW/CIMSS ANALYSIS. THE TROPICAL STORM ALSO IS IN A
REGION OF LESS THAN FAVORABLE SSTS OF ABOUT 26 DEGREES C...AND VERY
LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES ACCORDING TO THE MOST RECENT CIRA
ANALYSIS.
THE LLCC OF FERNANDA IS MOVING 280/10. THE LATEST SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CPHC...JTWC AND SAB WERE ALL 3.0. DUE TO
THE PROLONGED LOSS OF DEEP CONVECTION AND THE POOR APPEARANCE OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY....HAVE ASSIGNED A
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KT. FERNANDA REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO ITS WEST...AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS
EAST. THE GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE UPPER LOW
AND RIDGE WILL MOVE WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH FERNANDA...MAINTAINING
SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THAT NOT ONLY WILL THE SHEAR
PERSIST...BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH TIME.
FERNANDA IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD
LATER TODAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TURN THE MUCH WEAKENED AND
SHALLOWER SYSTEM TOWARD THE WEST. WITH TIME...THE DEEP CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY BE SEPARATED FROM THE LLCC...AND THE LLCC WILL BE
STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST...AND
LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/1500Z 15.1N 144.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 15.5N 146.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 15.9N 148.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 16.2N 150.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 16.3N 152.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/1200Z 16.5N 156.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON
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-
Hurricane Jed
- Category 2
- Posts: 542
- Age: 36
- Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2011 3:36 pm
- Location: Cen Tex
Ah well that ends the magic 7/7 attempt, still impressive hurricane season in the EPAC though.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
WTPA41 PHFO 192040
TCDCP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062011
1100 AM HST FRI AUG 19 2011
INITIAL VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE DAY CLEARLY SHOWED THE EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...LLCC...OF FERNANDA AND VERY LIMITED DEEP
CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT ABOUT 80 NM FROM THE
CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 155W CONTINUES TO APPLY
SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE CYCLONE WITH THE CIMSS ANALYSIS
INDICATING SHEAR VALUES OF 16 KTS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
CPHC AND SAB WERE 35 KT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ONGOING DETERIORATION
OF THE SYSTEM...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT 30 KT THUS
MAKING FERNANDA A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FERNANDA HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
SINCE AROUND 0800 UTC. FURTHERMORE...THE DETERIORATING CIRCULATION
OF FERNANDA IS AND WILL REMAIN OVER WATER WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
25C TO 26C DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SOUTHERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THUS...FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY
SATURDAY.
WITH FERNANDA NOW A SHALLOW SYSTEM...ITS MOTION HAS BECOME MORE
INFLUENCED BY THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270
DEGREES AT 10 KT. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINING LIFE CYCLE OF THIS SYSTEM AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS
AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS WHICH HAVE PERFORMED VERY WELL WITH THIS
TROPICAL CYCLONE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/2100Z 15.4N 145.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 15.7N 147.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 16.0N 149.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 21/0600Z 16.0N 151.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER KODAMA
TCDCP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062011
1100 AM HST FRI AUG 19 2011
INITIAL VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE DAY CLEARLY SHOWED THE EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...LLCC...OF FERNANDA AND VERY LIMITED DEEP
CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT ABOUT 80 NM FROM THE
CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 155W CONTINUES TO APPLY
SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE CYCLONE WITH THE CIMSS ANALYSIS
INDICATING SHEAR VALUES OF 16 KTS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
CPHC AND SAB WERE 35 KT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ONGOING DETERIORATION
OF THE SYSTEM...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT 30 KT THUS
MAKING FERNANDA A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FERNANDA HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
SINCE AROUND 0800 UTC. FURTHERMORE...THE DETERIORATING CIRCULATION
OF FERNANDA IS AND WILL REMAIN OVER WATER WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
25C TO 26C DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SOUTHERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THUS...FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY
SATURDAY.
WITH FERNANDA NOW A SHALLOW SYSTEM...ITS MOTION HAS BECOME MORE
INFLUENCED BY THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270
DEGREES AT 10 KT. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINING LIFE CYCLE OF THIS SYSTEM AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS
AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS WHICH HAVE PERFORMED VERY WELL WITH THIS
TROPICAL CYCLONE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/2100Z 15.4N 145.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 15.7N 147.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 16.0N 149.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 21/0600Z 16.0N 151.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER KODAMA
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Bye Fernanda.
WTPA41 PHFO 200230
TCDCP1
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062011
500 PM HST FRI AUG 19 2011
FERNANDA HAS BEEN UNABLE TO MAINTAIN PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION FOR
OVER 18 HOURS AND ITS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...LLCC...HAS
BEEN FULLY EXPOSED ALL DAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION...THIS SYSTEM IS NOW CONSIDERED TO BE POST-TROPICAL.
THE PRESENCE OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 25C AND 26C MEAN THAT REGENERATION IS NOT
LIKELY. THUS...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON FERNANDA.
THE REMNANT OF FERNANDA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL TRADE WINDS BEFORE DISSIPATING WITHIN A COUPLE
OF DAYS. FOR FUTURE INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER HFOHSFNP AND WMO HEADER FZPN40 PHFO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0300Z 15.5N 147.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 15.6N 148.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 21/0000Z 15.6N 150.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 21/1200Z 15.6N 153.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER KODAMA
WTPA41 PHFO 200230
TCDCP1
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062011
500 PM HST FRI AUG 19 2011
FERNANDA HAS BEEN UNABLE TO MAINTAIN PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION FOR
OVER 18 HOURS AND ITS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...LLCC...HAS
BEEN FULLY EXPOSED ALL DAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION...THIS SYSTEM IS NOW CONSIDERED TO BE POST-TROPICAL.
THE PRESENCE OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 25C AND 26C MEAN THAT REGENERATION IS NOT
LIKELY. THUS...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON FERNANDA.
THE REMNANT OF FERNANDA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL TRADE WINDS BEFORE DISSIPATING WITHIN A COUPLE
OF DAYS. FOR FUTURE INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER HFOHSFNP AND WMO HEADER FZPN40 PHFO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0300Z 15.5N 147.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 15.6N 148.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 21/0000Z 15.6N 150.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 21/1200Z 15.6N 153.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER KODAMA
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