CPAC: FERNANDA - Tropical Depression

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Re: EPAC: SIX-E - Tropical Depression

#41 Postby Florida1118 » Mon Aug 15, 2011 10:48 pm

:uarrow: How? They are not considered to be the same place, they never have. They are controled by different Centers, kinda like Law Enforcement Juristdiction.
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Re: EPAC: SIX-E - Tropical Depression

#42 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 15, 2011 10:54 pm

Florida1118 wrote::uarrow: How? They are not considered to be the same place, they never have. They are controled by different Centers, kinda like Law Enforcement Juristdiction.


Under that logic, you would be correct (according to Chirs Landesa the basins are technically split because Hawaii wants to do their on seasonal forecast). I just want everyone here to be aware that the WMO suggests otherwise.
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#43 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 15, 2011 10:56 pm

I'm not sure but if I remember correctly the NHC in Florida was responsible for the Atlantic, and another hurricane center in California somewhere was responsible for the Eastern Pacific.
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Re: EPAC: SIX-E - Tropical Depression

#44 Postby Florida1118 » Mon Aug 15, 2011 10:57 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Florida1118 wrote::uarrow: How? They are not considered to be the same place, they never have. They are controled by different Centers, kinda like Law Enforcement Juristdiction.


Under that logic, you would be correct (according to Chirs Landesa the basins are technically split because Hawaii wants to do their on seasonal forecast). I just want everyone here to be aware that the WMO suggests otherwise.

Yeah I just looked at it, they split the NW PAS into 2. But they dont refer to it as the CPAC. So you are correct. :)
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Re:

#45 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 15, 2011 11:02 pm

Kingarabian wrote:I'm not sure but if I remember correctly the NHC in Florida was responsible for the Atlantic, and another hurricane center in California somewhere was responsible for the Eastern Pacific.


You are correct. During the 1970's and 1980's, the East Pacific hurricane Center (from Redwood City) monitored 140W to the Mexican coast.
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Re:

#46 Postby Chacor » Mon Aug 15, 2011 11:11 pm

Kingarabian wrote:I'm not sure but if I remember correctly the NHC in Florida was responsible for the Atlantic, and another hurricane center in California somewhere was responsible for the Eastern Pacific.


The Eastern Pacific Hurricane Center in San Francisco had warning responsibility until 1988.

Yellow Evan wrote:
Florida1118 wrote::uarrow: How? They are not considered to be the same place, they never have. They are controled by different Centers, kinda like Law Enforcement Juristdiction.


Under that logic, you would be correct (according to Chirs Landesa the basins are technically split because Hawaii wants to do their on seasonal forecast). I just want everyone here to be aware that the WMO suggests otherwise.


I think you'll find that you're not correct there either; if you really want to be technically specific, the entire RA-IV region is considered a single "basin". The WMO tropical cyclone operational manual refers to the entire region as the RA IV (Regional Association 4), and the RA IV Hurricane Committee is responsible for both the Atlantic and Pacific east of 180.

Not to mention that the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea and the North Atlantic Ocean are technically three different sub-basins. There is no one single "basin".

Furthermore, your argument regarding Australia is a fallacy; the Australian region is not itself a basin; it is a sub-portion of the South Pacific and South-East Indian Ocean basin.

So before you start accusing others of spreading "false information", do some research, and don't give me that crap.
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#47 Postby supercane » Tue Aug 16, 2011 1:46 am

Chacor wrote:So before you start accusing others of spreading "false information", do some research, and don't give me that crap.

Let's try and keep this friendly here. The thread has been largely civil, with this topic arising from a question asking if the Eastern and Central Pacific are separate basins followed by a discussion by various posters as to why the separate designation came about, and despite
Yellow Evan wrote:How are they different? I can't go along with it because it is technically false information.

I think that the discussion has been more along the lines of trying to gain a better understanding than along the lines of placing malevolent aspirations on other posters.

Here's my take on things after doing some research. The fact that North America, Central America and the Caribbean comprise WMO Region IV only notes the region's place in the WMO structure (not only in the Tropical Cyclone Programme) and therefore has nothing to do with whether or not the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific are separate basins (they are, but you'll see why shortly). You will have little help finding the exact definition of the word "basin" through official documents, as I could not locate a definition anywhere in the WMO Tropical Cyclone Programme website, including in the Regional Association IV (North America, Central America and the Caribbean) Hurricane Operational Plan, nor in any of the NWS tropical cyclone directives.We get a better answer from the "Global Overview" section of the Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting and from section F1 "F1) What regions around the globe have tropical cyclones and who is responsible for forecasting there?" of the NOAA AOML's Hurricane FAQ references, which references the former. While no definition of the word "basin" is given in either of those sources, I think it would be fair to say from common usage that a tropical cyclone basin refers to a discrete geographic area in which tropical cyclones form at high frequencies. The Global Guide offers the following basins:
1 North Atlantic North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico NHC
2 Eastern North Pacific North America to 180 NHC to 140W, CPC 140W-dateline
3 Western North Pacific West of 180oE, including South China Sea JMA
4 North Indian Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea IMD
5 Southwest Indian South Indian Ocean west of 100oE La Réunion to 90E
6 Southeast Indian/Australia Southern Hemisphere 100-142oE BOM
7 Southwest Pacific/Australia Southern Hemisphere east of 142oE BOM, Nadi
Image (image from NOAA FAQ)
You can judge for yourself if you agree with the basins identified above by looking at a graphic of actual TC tracks over 1979-1988 (Figure 1.9 in the Global Guide) and estimated frequency per 100 years (Figure 1.10):
Image
Image
From the above, the Central Pacific may not merit being called a separate basin, as it appears largely contiguous with the Eastern Pacific. While the WMO does recognize CPHC Honolulu as a RSMC, the Region IV plan gives scarce passing mention to the CPHC. If I recall correctly it does appear that the CPHC exists for largely political reasons, as I remember an article stating that Hawaiians prefer information about hurricanes affecting Hawaii to come from Hawaii instead of the mainland, although I cannot dig up a source that confirms that.
However, by reading the various NWS tropical cyclone directives (eg, 10-601 Tropical Cyclone Products) and the 2011 National Hurricane Operations Plan (NHOP), from an operational standpoint, the Central Pacific is a separate basin--it has its own RSMC, gets its own designator (-C attached to depressions and different AWIPS headers), and has a separate list of names that would carry over to either the Western or Eastern Pacific.
This concludes my take on the basin issue, with available references hyperlinked. If people want to continue this topic, it should probably be made a separate thread in Talking Tropics, should avoid name calling, and should reference sources if possible.

Back on topic, not looking great on IR:
Image
No new subjective Dvorak estimates above yet for 06Z.
Looks like CPHC will take responsibility for this late Wednesday or early Thursday (if it survives at all). Any bets on if this will be Fernanda, Pewa, or remain forever nameless?
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Re: EPAC: SIX-E - Tropical Depression

#48 Postby hawaiigirl » Tue Aug 16, 2011 4:11 am

[size=150][/size]Do you think this will effect Hawaii in any way? Can this turn into a hurricane?
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Re: EPAC: SIX-E - Tropical Depression

#49 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 16, 2011 4:32 am

hawaiigirl wrote:[size=150][/size]Do you think this will effect Hawaii in any way? Can this turn into a hurricane?

Right now it seems very unlikely. But if it were to surprise us all and strengthen into a decent Hurricane it could be picked up by a break in the ridge and move near Hawaii. But please refer to our local meteorologists or the NHC.
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#50 Postby Chacor » Tue Aug 16, 2011 6:53 am

ACPN50 PHFO 161135
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST TUE AUG 16 2011

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI...FLORIDA IS ISSUING
ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E...LOCATED ABOUT 1515 MILES
EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCMEP1 AND WMO
HEADER WTPZ21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E IS NOT EXPECTED TO CROSS
LONGITUDE 140W INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY UNTIL SOME TIME ON THURSDAY.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

$$

HOUSTON
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Re: EPAC: SIX-E - Tropical Depression

#51 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 16, 2011 7:37 am

subjective T#'s are increasing and it's beginning to wrap around nicely... Could have a TS next advisory?
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Re: EPAC: SIX-E - Tropical Depression

#52 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 16, 2011 8:40 am

12z Best Track

Tropical Storm Fernanda will be born on next advisory.

EP, 06, 2011081612, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1341W, 40, 1004, TS
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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Tropical Storm

#53 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 16, 2011 9:40 am

TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062011
1500 UTC TUE AUG 16 2011

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 134.5W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 134.5W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 134.1W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 12.3N 135.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 12.5N 137.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.8N 138.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.2N 139.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 14.2N 143.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 14.5N 147.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 15.0N 151.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 134.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062011
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 16 2011

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E HAS
STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM. THE CENTER IS NOW EMBEDDED
WITHIN CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE.
THIS STRUCTURE IS CONFIRMED BY A TRMM PASS AT 0800 UTC WHICH SHOWED
THE CENTER JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN BANDING FEATURE.
DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE 35 AND 45 KT FROM SAB/TAFB...SO THE INITIAL
WINDS WILL BE INCREASED TO 40 KT.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR FERNANDA IS PROBLEMATIC. WHILE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO BE LIGHT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH MORE STABLE AIR AND
COOLER WATERS JUST TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE IS NOW
SHOWING CONSIDERABLY MORE INTENSIFICATION...WITH THE
SHIPS/LGEM/HWRF MODELS NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
AFTER THAT TIME...AN INCREASE IN SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR ALONG WITH
DECREASING SSTS SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND. ALTHOUGH THE NEW
NHC FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...THE FORECAST WILL
STAY LOWER THAN THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE GIVEN HOW CLOSE FERNANDA
IS TO MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.

THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT ABOUT 7 KT. A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS... WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FERNANDA TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. AFTER THAT TIME...A WEAKER CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITHIN THE LOWER-LEVEL TRADES. WHILE THE
RELIABLE GUIDANCE IS PRETTY WELL-CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST FEW
DAYS...THERE ARE SOME SPEED DIFFERENCES. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO AN AVERAGE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE GFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLE...GFDL...ECMWF...AND UKMET MODELS. THIS BLEND RESULTS IN
A SOMEWHAT FASTER AND FARTHER WEST FORECAST THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 12.3N 134.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 12.3N 135.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 12.5N 137.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 12.8N 138.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 13.2N 139.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 14.2N 143.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 14.5N 147.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 15.0N 151.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Re: Re:

#54 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 16, 2011 9:54 am

Chacor wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
Florida1118 wrote::uarrow: How? They are not considered to be the same place, they never have. They are controled by different Centers, kinda like Law Enforcement Juristdiction.


Under that logic, you would be correct (according to Chirs Landesa the basins are technically split because Hawaii wants to do their on seasonal forecast). I just want everyone here to be aware that the WMO suggests otherwise.


I think you'll find that you're not correct there either; if you really want to be technically specific, the entire RA-IV region is considered a single "basin". The WMO tropical cyclone operational manual refers to the entire region as the RA IV (Regional Association 4), and the RA IV Hurricane Committee is responsible for both the Atlantic and Pacific east of 180.

Not to mention that the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea and the North Atlantic Ocean are technically three different sub-basins. There is no one single "basin".

Furthermore, your argument regarding Australia is a fallacy; the Australian region is not itself a basin; it is a sub-portion of the South Pacific and South-East Indian Ocean basin.

So before you start accusing others of spreading "false information", do some research, and don't give me that crap.


Look at the link I provided on page 2. Anyway, we know have TS Fernanda. Any shot of it becoming a hurricane?
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#55 Postby Chacor » Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:00 am

Sure, because NOAA is the be-all-end-all of tropical cyclone knowledge. :roll:
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#56 Postby somethingfunny » Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:21 am

Anything to get three pages on an EPAC thread, eh? :)

Image

Image

It's just a co-incidence of course, but Kauai sure is an unlucky island. Hopefully they'll get spared if Fernanda comes towards Hawaii.

Image

The eastern half of the state could use some tropical rains however.
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#57 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:01 am

Image

Compared to 2 days ago and yesterday...

ImageImage
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#58 Postby Chacor » Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:10 am

Looking very robust today and not a surprise the NHC upped its forecast.
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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Tropical Storm

#59 Postby HurricaneRobert » Tue Aug 16, 2011 1:13 pm

This looks like a hurricane now. I hope we get 6 for 6.
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#60 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 16, 2011 1:14 pm

I'd go with 45 or 50 knts right now.
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